Daniel - Poker Journal
NBC Bracket Preditctions05 Mar 2010
I'm just doing this for fun and don't really want to hear about how bad my predictions are. I have no idea how any of the 7 qualifiers are, but some of them are going to win, so I went with some random upsets:
Chris Moneymaker over Patrik Antonius: call it a hunch, but I think Moneymaker is due to run good.
Eric Baldwin over Leo Wolpert: just a random guess.
David Williams over Joe Cada: I have no idea who the favorite is in this match so I'll go with the more experienced guy in this format and figure that Cada is due to get it in with AA and go broke to A-6 off.
Huck Seed over Erik Seidel: Huck has the best record in NBC HU history, and Erik has the worst at 0-5. Both are obviously great players, but something about the set and the Feng Shui of the room seems to favor Seed and curse Seidel.
Erick Lindgren over Dan Ramirez: I went with EDOG but I'm not so sure! I don't know if he's played much poker recently.
Peter Eastgate over Bertrand "Elky" Grospeillier: An all PokerStars match-up, this one is tough to call. I went with Eastgate which may seem like a tiny upset.
Ted Forrest over Stephen Quinn: I think Ted plays the amateur extremely well. He players everyone well, but I think he should be ok here.
Dario Minieri over Jamie Gold: two aggressive players, I'm going with the younger one who bought a Porshe using FPP points on PokerStars thanks to dominating heads up sit n' gos for years.
Chris Moneymaker over Eric Baldwin: call it a hunch. Moneymaker was obviously very lucky when he won in 2003, but since then he's been pretty unlucky in made for TV events and I think that might change.
Huck Seed over David Williams: the guy is a machine, what can I say?
Peter Eastgate over Erick Lindgren: a tough match-up here, I flipped a coin and it landed on Eastgate.
Dario Minieri over Ted Forrest: the young Italian bull's aggression might get the best of Ted here.
Round of 16
Chris Moneymaker over Huck Seed: Moneymaker magic this year! I am a believer!
Peter Eastgate over Dario Minieri: Minieri bluffs at the wrong pot, and Eastgate eliminates him after flopping the nuts and never putting a bet in.
Peter Eastgate over Chris Moneymaker: The dream is over! Eastgate the PokerStars crusher eliminates Elky, Dario, and finally Moneymaker.
Gavin Smith over Phil Ivey: the outcome here depends on how motivated Ivey is. He wasn't at the draw party last night, so that made my decision a little easier. Gavin will be motivated and has had a good start to the year.
Scotty Nguyen over Richard Edwards: Expect Scotty to talk Edwards out of his chips with a patented, "You call here gonna be all over baby" type line.
Shawn Rice over Joe Hachem: Rice is a qualifier, but everyone knows that he's a real player and a pro. Just a hunch on this one.
Gabe Kaplan over Johnny Chan: Gabe watches loads of NLH and that's gotta help his game. Chan is coming off a 10th place finish at the LAPC, fatigue could play a role, who knows.
Jason Mercier over Daniel Negreanu: I'm not dumping for my bracket, lol. Jason is a tough opponent and has the will to win. He wants to win, and has the confidence that he can do so. He is very hungry, and that love of tournament poker and the tournament trail reminds me a lot of myself 10 years ago.
Mike Sexton over Peter deKorver: only one who's watched more poker than Gabe is probably Mike. I played Sexton heads up, and he's tough. He's incorporated a lot of good things into his game and he's not afraid to stick it in when necessary.
Tom "Durr" Dwan over Phil Gordon: Gordon hasn't played much in recent years tending to his new family, so he's likely to be rusty. His opponent? He's not rusty, Durr is one of the world's best players and plays at the highest levels regularly.
Phil Laak over John Juanda: I played with Laak recently and was impressed. Juanda may still be suffering from a deadly case of TMM (too much money) and will have to bring is A game to defeat Laak.
Gavin Smith over Scotty Nguyen: Gavin is focused this year and has a lot to prove to himself. I expect him to show up ready to play and defeat the Prince of Poker.
Shawn Rice over Gabe Kaplan: Just a hunch.
Jason Mercier over Mike Sexton: I expect a tough match, but in the end I see Mercier breaking Sexton with KK vs QQ.
Phil Laak over Tom "Durr" Dwan: I'm predicting a bit of an upset here, but not really. When the blinds get higher and the stacks get smaller, I don't think many, if any players really have an edge on Laak, and I don't think Durr has much experience playing short stacked poker.
Round of 16:
Gavin Smith over Shawn Rice: Riding the Canadian train.
Phil Laak over Jason Mercier: a tough match-up, but Laak's A-7 outdraws Mercier's 99 for all the cheese.
Phil Laak over Gavin Smith: Laak says, "Oh my God, Oh my God, so sick, so sick. Dealer, don't do it to me, please, please, don't do it," as he runs around the table punching the air and then ultimately squeezing the dealer when Gavin misses his two overs and an open ended straight flush draw against Laak's measely pair of 55's.
Jesper Hougaard over Allen Cunningham: just a hunch.
Eli Elezra over Greg Meuller: this is Meuller's first invite, I predict he gets a bit nervous and Eli just doesn't do nervous. He was in the Israeli army for Heaven's sakes, this is a piece of cake for the high stakes veteran.
Annette Dworski over Chris Ferguson: this is one of my random qualifier predictions. I have no idea who she is or if she even knows what she's doing.
Kara Scott over Dennis Phillips: Kara is a bit of a dark horse in this thing, but she's as prepared as anyone in the field for this format.
Brock Parker over Doyle Brunson: as we all know Doyle hasn't been out of the house much lately for health reasons, but he's going to make a go of it. Brock is one tough customer, and he just doesn't make too many mistakes.
JP Kelly over Don Cheadle: Kelly is on fire coming off a great year.
Phil Hellmuth over Howard Lederer: this has the potential of being a great match-up of old school vs. old school, but I'm going to give a healthy nod to Hellmuth who has FINALLY decided to revisit his strategy and work on improving his game.
Annette Oberstad over Orel Hershiser: Annette's first invite to the big dance and I think it will be a successful one.
Jesper Hougaard over Eli Elezra: Jesper doesn't intimidate easily and a win may mean we hear the famous chant, "Uba Uba Uba, RAP, RAP, RAP!!!"
Kara Scott over Annette Dworski: Kara doesn't get a lot of attention for her poker skills, because she is usually in front of the camera working on TV shows, but she doesn't suck.
Brock Parker over J.P. Kelly: maybe the toughest match-up of the whole tournament amongst two relative unknowns who are both highly skilled players.
Annette Oberstad over Phil Hellmuth: I think this will end up being an excellent match-up that personifies old school versus new school, but I'm going with new school in this one.
Round of 16
Kara Scott over Jesper Hougaard: this could be Kara's coming out party much like last year's version, Vanessa Rousso.
Brock Parker over Annette Oberstad: another super tough match, I'll go with the calm, cool customer.
Brock Parker over Kara Scott: Lady luck finally runs out as she bluffs at the wrong pot.
Vanessa Rousso over Barry Greenstien: fresh with confidence from last years run to the final, Vanessa gets revenge on Barry who beat her in this event a couple years ago.
Antonio Esfandiari over Sammy Farha: Antonio and his new mindset coach help defeat the tricky Farha who hasn't been around the poker scene much lately. Expect a nice spread of Hummus, Baba Ganough, stuffed grape leaves, falafel, and Shwarma for this all Persian affair.
Jennifer Harman over Jennifer Tilly: Believe it not, I think Tilly has studied the game harder than most people give her credit for and almost certainly has a better understanding of the math behind short stack strategy. I just can't root against my sister.
Mike Matusow over Jerry Yang: with all due respect to Yang, I don't feel he's done enough playing since his WSOP win to warrant an invite into this prestigious event.
Bill Hunstress over Darvin Moon: another random guess!
Andy Bloch over Annie Duke: this event was basically designed for a guy like Andy Bloch and his results have been good. He is a math guy and the structure heavily favors math based minds, especially in longer matches.
Paul Wasicka over Andrew Wilson: Wasicka is inspired to play again and he just won an event. He's also a previous champion here.
Gus Hansen over Greg Raymer: Gus has been doing well this year and his level confidence is up.
Antonio Esfandiari over Vanessa Rousso: just a hunch.
Jennifer Harman over Mike Matusow: Jenn and Mikey have battled for years in the "old days" and I think Jenn has his number. Mike will lose graciously, and be genuinely happy for Jennifer.
Bill Huntress over Andy Bloch: who know Huntress was such a monster right? Haha, I have no clue, just another one of my random picks.
Gus Hansen over Paul Wasicka: Gus will lull Wasicka to sleep my performing hypnotism by cutting his chips over and over until Wasicka wakes up and says, "What happened to my chips? Where is everyone? Hello?"
Round of 16:
Jennifer Harman over Antonio Esfandiari: Antonio is shocked to find out later when the show airs that Jenn actually outplayed him! He gives her credit for a monster every time, makes sick lay downs, and Jenn has air every time.
Gus Hansen over Bill Huntress: I wasn't going to pick the guy to win the whole thing!
Gus Hansen over Jennifer Harman: Gus just tortures Jenn by cracking QQ, JJ, and AK with 8-4, J-6, and K-3. Jenn grabs her purse, and let's Gus know how she feels about it, "Nice hand Gus you @%^$!% son of $@$*&^ lucky piece of #!%$@^" and the next day in the big game Jenn apologizes to Gus, buys him a drink, and in true Gus fashion, his natural response to that is something to the effect of, "I have a room here, let's go have makeup sex so you can prove how sorry you really are."
Peter Eastgate over Phil Laak: Laak gets it in 34%, flop makes him 22.63% (approx) and on the turn Eastgate nails the sick death card and Laak is hoping for the river to be a card that's already shown. Clinging to the hope of a fouled deck and new life.
Brock Parker over Gus Hansen: Parker whistles, chews gum, shows zero emotion, and ultimately crushes a puzzled Gus Hansen who is forced to make the bitter beer face about 5 times throughout the match.
Brock Parker over Peter Eastgate: Eastgate's luck runs out and Brock Parker gets a much deserved win which leads to 43 internet forum threads with titles like:
"Live Players are clueless"
"Brock Parker is God"
"How Sick is Brock Parker"
"Online Players > then Live Players AINEC"