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Daniel - Poker Journal

$50,000 H.O.R.S.E. Predictions

24 Jun 2007

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The main difference is that we start out playing high enough where if you run really bad, you could easily go broke in the first two hours. Here is the structure for this event:

Starting chips 100,000

Hold'em 600-1200
Omaha HL 600-1200
Razz 800-1600
Stud 800-1600
Stud H/L 800-1600

Hold'em 1000-2000
Omaha H/L 1000-2000
Razz 1200-2400
Stud 1200-2400
Stud H/L 1200-2400

Hold'em 1500-3000
Omaha H/L 1500-3000
Razz 1800-3600
Stud 1800-3600
Stud H/L 1800-3600

Hold'em 2000-4000
Omaha H/L 2000-4000
Razz 2500-5000
Stud 2500-5000
Stud H/L 2500-5000

Hold'em 3000-6000
Omaha H/L 3000-6000
Razz 4000-8000

That's a total of 11.5 hours of play and I think that's about what we'll get on day one with a 90 minute dinner break and a 15 minute break every two hours.

By the end of day one the starting stack will have a total of 12.5 big bets to play with. So if you play break even poker for 11.5 hours you'll officially be on a rather short stack at the end of day one. If you happen to take a few beats and lose half of your stack going into the Razz section, you'll have about 6 bets to play with.

This structure is actually just fine, but in comparison to the other events I worry that many players may complain that this particular event starts out a little too fast? After day one the structure continues to move fluidly with every blind increase imagineable, but I think many will be surprised to see that unlike last year, we will lose a large percentage of players on the first day.

Assuming we have, say, 200 players for the H.O.R.S.E. I'm guessing that we'll lose anywhere from 60-75 players on day one. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3 of the field.

Compare that to the other limit events and you'd be left puzzled as the percentage of players eliminated in that same time frame would actually be smaller. I think the H.O.R.S.E. structure is excellent, but as I said, my main concern is that people will be comparing the early stages of this event to those other limit events that start out excessively slow. The most extreme example being the $3000 Stud H/L starting with 120 big bets, while in this $50,0000 H.O.R.S.E. event, players will start with 83.3 bets.

Knowing that we'll likely end after the 4000-8000 Razz level, I've been thinking about what kind of stack I'll need to have to feel comfortable for the next day's play and it's a pretty big number. To feel REALLY comfortable I'd need to have more than 30 bets, which means I'll have to win 140,000 on day one to feel like I'm not in any present danger. That's a tall order, but it's not impossible by any means.

The pressure will be on from the get go, with even that first 600-1200 hold'em section being meaningful. In other words... I won't be skipping any levels for this one!

It's about midnight right now and I'm anxious and excited to get started. I feel "due" to run good in this particular H.O.R.S.E. and I can see myself doing very well in it. I'm well rested, ate well today and yesterday, and feel like my batteries are charged and ready to focus on playing great.

On that note, I have a few e-mails to take care of and then plan on getting a solid 8 hours of sleep.

I'll also be sending text updates to a friend who will be posting them in the General Forum at www.fullcontactpoker.com. They'll be sporadic, with chip counts, who's at my table, and any interesting hands and/or insight about what's been happening.

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