PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($9.05)
SB ($8.90)
BB ($4.30)
UTG ($7.15)
UTG+1 ($16.20)
MP1 ($16)
MP2 ($5.50)
MP3 ($9.75)
CO ($5)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 8. CO posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises to $0.4, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30, UTG+1 calls $0.30, CO folds.

Flop: ($1.35) T, 3, Q (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.85, BB calls $0.85, UTG+1 calls $0.85.

Turn: ($3.90) J (3 players)
BB bets $1.05, UTG+1 calls $1.05, Hero ???. What is a good amount to raise on the turn to keep people in but fade out draws? Or should I just shove?

I pump it up to 4 but then you'll only have a little under 4 left for the river.

There will be ~$7 in the pot after we call. We will have ~$7 left in our stack. Shove.

Also, raising this pre-flop (particularly at this level) really isn't "necessary", but I suppose it can be defended.

Agreed



I guess being on the button and trying to pick off the UTG limper could be a justification???

the pot is big enough that I shove the turn. A pot sized raise would only leave you with a dollar or two.

If he shoves, then he allows the villains to play better against him by folding hands that are behind and calling if they're ahead.

If he raised to $4 or $5 (yes, he'd have no money left behind, so he'd obviously go all in on the river) but any hand that called would have made a mistake by incorrectly drawing without proper odds.

I think I raise to $4.50 on the turn and push any river.

Do you take into account the stakes? I doubt even 5% of the players at this level even consider pot odds, what hero might be holding, ect.

If he shoves he gets called by hands like KQ, two pair , A or K high flush draws (very possibly any flush draw), and sets. I think if hero shoves he gets called by at least one player.

Is that incorrect thinking? Or would you rather make the raise you suggested and possibly get called by both?

Whether the villains are thinking about it or not is irrelevant. They make a mistake if they call the $4.50 raise without proper odds to do so. If they'll call of their stack regardless with KQ, then you push because that allows them to make a BIGGER mistake.

Whether or not the hero is thinking about that is the question. Most players (even many of the 5/10 players I play with) seem to forget that the idea is to make your opponents make mistakes. If you push, you make their decisions to fold their 2nd best hands much easier and you dont' wanna help them play well against you, do you?

True, I know when a pot gets to 50 BB's or larger I'm usually happy to take it down rather than trying to extract as much as possible and possibly losing it.

I think there are cards he still has to fold the river on even if he makes himself extremely short by the river. kc, Ac being the most obvious, but others as well. Basically 11 cards to kill you hard and a total of 14 action killers. I understand what you're saying about, if he makes a mistake, then you've won. But you've only really won if he makes the mistake and you don't make a mistake on the river because ultimately he might not be paying you your full stack when he doesn't get there, but you're paying him your full stack when he gets there if you're intending to get them in on any river cause you feel like you've pot stuck yourself. Just re-read and saw position and see what you're saying about the push (you're probably only getting to checked to if you're ahead?) But you lose action when the board shows 4 to a str8 against top pair type hands that call the turn. Also, what would you think if you were not in position and were faced with the prospect of possibly pushing into the nuts on a 4 to a str8 river?

Even if you're paying him off when he gets there (which you always will after making a turn raise like the one I suggest) and he's not paying you off when he misses (assuming that he had a naked draw and no pair, since he'd probably call with any pair since the pot is so big now) then he's still making a mistake. Even for your whole stack, he doesn't have the implied odds that he needs to be drawing at the hand becuase you simply don't have any money behind.

I understand the point that you're making and it would be valid if we had more chips behind. The fact is, we're always pushing the river with our hand, even if it's the Kc, we're still putting our chips in becuase we've already put so many in before that.

This is from one of ZeeJustin's blog entries about his tournament game that relates pretty well to what I'm trying to explain:


An orbit later, with blinds at 15/30, I found KK in middle position. UTG limped, and I raised to 120. Only UTG called, and the two of us saw a flop of 752 with 2 diamonds (I had 1 diamond). UTG checked, and I bet 225 into the 285 chip pot. UTG called.

The turn was a 6 of spades, putting a second flush draw on the board. There were 735 chips in the pot, my opponent had 715 chips left. I still had over 4,000 chips behind. A lot of players will just go all-in here to scare a flush draw or a straight draw away, but I decided to bet 450.

Since this pot is heads up, it is easy to determine my equity. If I push all-in, my opponent will most likely fold any draw, thus his equity is zero. If I bet 450, my opponent can fold for the same zero equity. He also has the option to call. If he has a flush draw, he has 8 outs (Note that one diamond is in my hand). That is the hand I am most worried about. In order to calculate his equity, we need to make assumptions for the river. Let’s assume that he will check fold when he misses, but when he hits, he will bet and I will call. Note that I will be committed to call any river bet if I think there’s any reasonable chance of having the best hand.

We have now created two situations if he calls. He can miss and lose 450 chips (equity in this situation is -450). Or, he can call and hit. His equity in this situation is the number of chips in the pot plus the number of chips he will win from me. 735 + 715 is 1450. For this play to be profitable, he needs to hit 1 out of (1450 / 450) times, or 1 out of 3.22 times. He will hit 1 out of ((44-8)/ 8) times, or 1 out of 4.5 times. This means that calling has negative equity.

By betting 450 instead of going all-in, I give my opponent a chance to make an incorrect play. If he makes an incorrect play, my benefit is exactly the same as the equity he loses, and I therefore prefer my opponent to make an incorrect play. Chances are he will just fold anyway, but why wouldn’t I give my opponent a good chance to make a worse decision?

As it turned out, my opponent had A6 of diamonds and decided to call. The river was a 4 of diamonds, one of the scariest cards in the deck. However, there were 1635 chips in the pot, so I had to call my opponents all in of 265.

Given this new piece of information (the opponents hand), we can now reevaluate the situation. Two important things are changed. First off, instead of having 8 outs, my opponent actually had 13 outs (8 diamonds, 3 aces and 2 sixes). Secondly, since my opponent has a pair, we can also assume he will call when he misses as he will be committed with only 265 chips left, and 1635 chips in the pot.

Now when he calls and misses, he loses 715 chips. When he calls and hits, he still wins 1450 chips. For this to be profitable, he needs to hit 1 out of (1450 / 715) times, or 1 out of 2.03 times. He will hit 1 out of ((44-13)/13) times, or 1 out of 2.38 times. This means that even though he had 5 additional outs, his call still had negative expectation assuming he would call any river.

To most people, this will seem like a simple hand, but as you can see, there really is a lot to think about. I should clarify that I simplified the scenario by giving my opponent 8 outs. In reality, he can have many hands that are much weaker, and a few hands that are significantly stronger. You simply have to make a reasonable estimate at the table based on the likelihood of his different holdings. The most complex part of this hand, however, is knowing how big of a mistake your opponent is capable of making. If he will call an all-in, the correct play is to just go all-in. If not, you should basically bet as much as you think he will call (unless of course that amount is small enough to give his call positive equity).

Then we've made a mistake on the river though which could be arguably a bigger one. Consider he calls 3.5 on the turn with KQ with around 1.50 of equity in the pot and we possibly call the river with zero equity on a four card str8. (Obviously not speaking in terms of range on the river).

I guess the question comes to, what types of hands stick around for this 1/2 buyin raise (I think it's sort of important to keep that in mind considering the stakes my dward how the big bet really is), but don't call the extra 3.15 on the turn? I think we've all kinda thought that top pair hands are coming along. I think either raise with run out second pair type hands. So in this case, we're trying to keep naked draws drawing at the wrong price by not pushing. So quick math... fix if you see something wrong cause I'm not really sure about it

Say the naked king is the average draw here which is 15% to catch. And for simplicity, say one person comes along who c/f the river UI. and we push/call any card on the river

Pot: 9.5 which we win 85% of the time= $8EV
We lose $7.8 (amount we have at turn decision) 15% of the time = -$1.17EV
Net: $6.83

If we push and fold both players: we get $6 of EV which is less by 83 cents ............so agreed pushing < raising less than a push.

I still think we can improve this by folding some times considering our position though. how often does villian push into us w/o a winner on any of the bad cards that can hit us?
Pot: 9.5 which we win 85% of the time= $8EV
We lose $4.6 (amount we raise) 15% of the time = -$.69EV
Net: $7.31

this seems a little off if you're saying hero raises to 4.50 and gets 1 caller. The pot was 3.90 and we had a bet and call of 1.05, now we raise to 4.5 and 1 calls. Pot = 13.95 , we've gotten that money in profitably and have 3.30 left behind which are willing to pay off against any hand.

There's also a ZeeJustin joke about him playing against himself too, but I won't make it.

On the turn, its a fairly easy push I think. Its not rocketscience...the guy likes his hand or not. Betting anything smaller leads us to not getting anymore money out of villain on the river if he has a drawing hand.

I like preflop only if you have a read that you will pick up the pot fairly easy preflop or on the flop ( e.g. your opponents are weak tight).

C-bet flop only if there is a decent chance that both fold. You have equity, but once you get called that is not worth much. You can't stand a raise here, so just check behind vs. two unknowns here.

When I see the stacks, the pot and the board, I think push and pray.

Take out the Hero's portion which doesn't relate to his profit: $14-4.5=9.5. I should really just have called it: profit.

Actually, the analysis I put together just looked at playing against a drawing hand. It doesn't address any lost equity we would have gotten from AQ , KQ pops if a 4 to a str8 comes up (not completing their str8) that they decide to fold on the river. That could realistically bring it the other way.

If we're against a made hand we get his money on the river anyway, especially if we hardly have any left on the river.

I think these sentences need emphasis. Obviously, we don't have reads in this hand, but I think that opponents at this level are generally very capable of making a big mistake in calling an all-in here.

I'm not completely sold on that. People can fold one pair at 4:1 on the river with 4 to a str8. Some one could make the argument for not at 10nl I suppose, but I think we took the conversation well out of just because it's 10nl.

Well, I raised to 5 dollars even and the big blind called (which put him all in) and utg folded. The river was the King of clubs, but suprisingly all he had was top two and my 9-k straight took it down. Thanks for the replies, I enjoy listening to your guys' strategical analysis .