PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) , , (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.


and calling a river bet

yeah, I post a lot of hands
I need help

A turn bet may have some fold equity.

Otherwise, I agree, unless a very scary river comes and I get bet into.

This is a classic free showdown bet.

We have a million odds to improve, which means we get (at least!) one more bet if we do hit our hand, or else we check through.

We also use our FE and can possibly win the hand unimproved.

It's also not a disaster if we get c/r'ed because we have so many outs.

you think we are ahead enough...
I know he's not folding any hand we want him to fold, right?

I guess we bet to fold another AK ?

which is why I'm calling the river, to split, or catch AQ.

I'm flustered

We have 15 outs to beat one pair (unless we're reverse dominated).

I doubt he has a pair though... maybe A8? 99, TT, JJ?

I want to charge the AQ, AJ type hands. If he's gonna call give him a chance. If we hit an ace on the river, we get another bet out of them. If we hit a flush, and he does have a pair, we get another bet. If he has QJc, we get an extra bet by betting the turn with the best hand, etc.

I don't know how to explain it, but in my mind, bet/calling turn, checking river, is 1000000 times better than checking the turn down, and calling any river.

if we can assume he never folds a pair here (not far off), then i like the play. standard would of course be to bet the turn for a free showdown, but i just don't see how that has more value than checking here, calling a river bet UI, and raising an Ace, king or club.

Actually, that's not totally true. I'll play the hand the same without the flush draw. With the flush draw though, against weak opponents, we have decent value just against AK, AQ, KQ or whatever. Not enough to bet turn and river, but probably enough that there is more value to betting the turn than inducing a bluff.

If our opponent is decent, but never folds a pair here, then there's no value in a turn bet, only in inducing a bluff.

would you feel the same if we didn't have a flush draw?

Nope. The flush draw is the reason we make this play.

It's the same principal as one of those free showdown turn raise semi-bluff type things.

This is an easy turn bet. I even think Sklansky/Malmuth talks about this specific situation in Hold'em for Advanced Players.

Besides, at this level, you'd be surprised how many AQ-AT you'll see that call you down.