Later stages of mtt, on the next 'pay bubble' for last 26.


Villain is very aggressive, a good player and very much a big table presence. But, I feel has a tendency to get too involved with marginal hands. He isolated a short stack shove with J10s a couple of hands before this.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)



UTG (t22016)
UTG+1 (t10917)
MP1 (t38801)
MP2 (t50691)
MP3 (t69812)
CO (t77695)
Hero (t64530)
SB (t82312)
BB (t57964)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K , A .
3 folds, MP2 calls t3000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t15000, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t50691, Hero ?


I have him covered by around 14,000 chips.

Whilst his early to mid limp surprised/concerned me (hadn't seen any of that at this table), I'm pretty much never limping along there too, with AK.


Two things to bear in mind... 1- He's a very good player who's limp re-raised all in from MP2. 2- I'm sure he's very capable of seeing my button raise as a positional steal.


If I lose, I'm crippled... if I win, I'm a top 3 stack.


Thoughts?

You're getting 2-1 on the call and villain has shown the ability to get aggressive with a fairly wide range of hands. The limp/push is scary but you're only a huge dog to AA/KK and you have an ace and a king in your hand which drops the odds a little more.

I'd have to call here and take my chances.

Yeah, he liked to get aggressive, but never in this manner. The J10 hand was really to illustrate how he pushed very small edges, by isolating therefore also taking the c5,000 in blinds and antes if he won.

He can get away from hands, and I don't believe he's pulling this tricky of a bluff. Hard to explain in a vacuum, but in terms of table dynamics this reeked of extreme strength, instantly.

Call for reasons stated by gobears.

Instacall and outdraw his 77.

fyp.

You think he has KK?

Last night I had a guy open-limp from the CO, I pushed TT from the button and he called with aces (near the damn final table ), so people can be tricky jerks with their aces.

I call though, I think he often reads your bet as a position play and pushes back with a lot of pairs, AQ, etc.

yeah ak is hardly ever good against a limp all-in push from utg. Sure he's lag but a good lag is gonna make sure he's got the goods when he gets it all-in pre-flop. He has no reason to risk his tourney life without a big hand when a lag lubs to just keep taking blinds.
edited my bad he's not utg which makes you worry more. a lag would take a shot at the blinds with a wide range and since he didn't you have to put him on something that wants action.

thats a really good point but he has still shown a propensity to do crazy stuff and the pot is offering you 2to1 so i call

You are VERY nearly getting odds if he has KK (you are ~30%, and you need ~33%), so the only han you can fold to is AA. It's an absolute no brainer.

odds schmodds I don't get this far to gamble. I still have a M of 11 if I fold I can find a better spot.

Sw?

No, I'm pretty sure he's completely serious. He's a "feel" player.

Yeah, the 'I can find a better spot' line is always a killer.

call me greedy but I always want the money to go in as me being the 70/30 fave.

lol, you aren't that good.

Seriously.

You're greedy. I'm not joking.

Take any edge. This guy can easily have underpairs here. Calling is +EV. You might want to be a 70/30 favourite every time, but it is VERY rare to get a situation where you are >70% against someone's range.

Simo, didn't we go over this like 2 weeks ago?

And a few weeks before that?

Then 2 million times before that?

As simo explained, we're almost getting good odds to call KK. His range here can't be KK+.

I don't know. I forget. I am so tweaked right now.

Fyi, Bullet, check out these threads from 2p2:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthr...ite_id/1#import

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthr...ite_id/1#import

I think he had Aces. I'm not a great player, but I don't want the short end of the coinflip. If he tried to limp, make a set, and then thought you were stealing with two overs, that's a big flip. Maybe AK suited would give you that extra 2% you need..

Did we call? Did he have Aces?

Easy call.

Even after a limp from this guy, which in the context of the way that most of the table had been playing aggressively was instantly alarming, you'd still put in the pre-flop raise, right?

Standard?


Or, anyone ever limp behind here too, with position?

I probably make it something like $10k rather than $15k, but this is a guaranteed raise every single time.

Cool. I guess that pretty much covers everything.


I kinda 'leaned' this towards the fact that I put him on Aces or Kings here. It took me about 3 seconds to call obviously, for the reasons most of you said. I called thinking, 'come on, show me the aces'.

Fwiw, he actually had TT, so your 77 guess was close.

I actually typed 99 at first - that was the first hand that came to mind - then edited the post because I thought he was more likely to limp with 77.

In any case, I wouldn't fold AK there even getting just 3:2, let alone 2:1.

Its a close decision between calling and raising here, and on the button I probably just call, especially if the blinds have been aggressive or villain has shown a limp/reraise before. Id rather be the one pushing with AK, and dont mind seeing if an A or K flops and abandoning the hand if it doesnt. I dont want to be racing from behind at this point in the tourney, and thats the best I can be if I get called or reraised.

If I were going to raise, 15k may be a little steep (unless there are antes, in which case 15k is needed). As played Id put his range as something like 88+, AK. That makes you a 60:40 dog to the river, and youre getting right around 2:1 odds, so its a call from an tEV viewpoint. I assume the money increase at this bubble is pretty meaningless, so its even a better call on a cash basis.

You like limping on the button with AK here? I'm interested to hear more expansive thoughts on the play because I currently strongly dislike the idea unless one of the blinds is liable to make a squeeze play with high regularity.

AJ and to a lesser extent AQ I could agree with in the right situation, but AK is too big to be passive with IMO. There is already 7.5k +antes in the middle which is very worthwile taking.

I strongly agree with you, simo. But Cop, he likey the limpey.

More than that, I hate reopening the betting with a drawing hand with position, or wasting a raise to a reraise from the blinds. If the blinds have been passive Id definitely raise though.

What do you mean "wasting a raise to a reraise from the blinds"? Do you mean you want the blinds to reraise, and you're concerned they won't if you reraise first?

No, I dont want a reraise, I want to be heads up at worst with AK and possibly dominating. If there is a re-raise from the blinds we're racing or dominated and have to fold. Thats why I dont want to raise against aggressive blind defenders here.

Wait, they are aggressive defenders but only reraise with pairs? Even if they reraise with 22+ and AK you still only get reraised 10% of the time. If you narrow that to 88+ and AK you only get reraised 6.6% of the time. And against 88+, AK you are 42% so you can easily call allin.

If they are aggressive blind defenders are you suggesting that you would take a limp/shove line? Or limp/call?

I honestly believe you are being far too weak in your play here.

I'm not folding AK preflop here with this much money already in the pot. I don't care what series of events happens--if the betting is reopened I'll gladly shove or call a shove.

Youre confusing aggressive with tight..they arent the same thing. In a cash game I agree its too weak, in a tourney Im not looking to build big pots pre-flop with drawing hands.

I don't believe I am. I think you're misunderstanding me.

What range will they reraise with if they are aggressive? How often will they have those hands?

I think you fail to appreciate how strong AK is here, and you fail to appreciate how valuable the money in the middle is worth.