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Actuary
river, of course.
no read, 10th hand, game a bit loose

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with , . CO posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) , , (5 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) (5 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (15.75 BB) (5 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

I hate trying to opine on these type of hands

c/c river?
c/f depending on pos?

chk and always call and never overcall?

b/c if not overcalling?
b/f a relative ep raise bet but b/c a relative late pos raise?
Zach6668
Well... I would never bet that river, for one.

I like your turn bet, btw. A lot of people will freeze up when the over hits in a 5 way pot. It's pretty likely we got caught at that point, but since we don't know, it's a good value/info bet, imo.

I would probably c/c, but not overcall, at least that would be the best case scenario, I think. However, I may make a crying call, especially if I'm closing the action, even if it's overcalling, since the pot is sooooo huge.
Actuary
but if we can get 2 worse hands to call for each time we are raised by a better hand, shouldn't we bet?



I'm playing so bad today.
Zach6668
QUOTE (Actuary @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 2:14 AM) *
but if we can get 2 worse hands to call for each time we are raised by a better hand, shouldn't we bet?
I'm playing so bad today.

Well, I guess, but it doesn't make it a good value bet if we just get called by a K, AND called by 2 hands that have us beat....

Clearly, since it's 5 handed, we can value bet pretty thinly. If I do bet, I'm not calling a raise.
Actuary
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 10:20 PM) *
Well, I guess, but it doesn't make it a good value bet if we just get called by a K, AND called by 2 hands that have us beat....

Clearly, since it's 5 handed, we can value bet pretty thinly. If I do bet, I'm not calling a raise.


my hand won't push the fold button if I'm the only caller in a 19 BB pot unfortunatly
Zach6668
QUOTE (Actuary @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 2:25 AM) *
my hand won't push the fold button if I'm the only caller in a 19 BB pot unfortunatly

Then I don't think you should bet.
Actuary
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 10:29 PM) *
Then I don't think you should bet.


what if 100BB pot?
Zach6668
QUOTE (Actuary @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 2:32 AM) *
what if 100BB pot?

c/c with 3 high.

Explain to me the merits of betting based on the pot size plz.
Actuary
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 10:40 PM) *
c/c with 3 high.

Explain to me the merits of betting based on the pot size plz.


betting is based on chance worse hands call enough and we win enough (more owrse hands call in huge pots)
Calling a raise is more correct in big pots, obv.

So if it's thin value bet in smal pot, it's more correct in huge pots. unless we think we pick off more bluffs in big pots..but that's another issue
Zach6668
But I don't think this is a value bet in any size pot, to be honest.

This board is terrible for QQ. I'd be suprised if we had the 3rd best hand here.
antistuff
nasty little hand here.

i hate that turn and have no idea what the best move is. my plan would be to bet and then try to see a showdown on the river calling one bet on some rivers and folding others. spades and im gone.

that river bet is really icky. that river call is even ickier. i check/call this river. i am not concerned about if its right to over call and where and how many and during what phase of the moon. if it is one bet i am calling the river. the pot is that big where i would have to stop playing for the rest of the day if i made a bad fold.
Actuary
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 10:20 PM) *
Clearly, since it's 5 handed, we can value bet pretty thinly. If I do bet, I'm not calling a raise.


so value or not?

*****

anti,

do we beat more hands that call or bet?

***********8

surely b/f is best.
I just cant, if only caller.
And I'm ok with that
RISEorFall
nh, sir.

value bet this river all day. yes, vs. 5 opponents, yes with the overcard. i cant show you math to back it up, but im sure you should value bet it.

yes, the river raise sucks and youre probably beat, but thats a huge pot and you gotta call it.
Zach6668
I'm pretty serious guys. If you think this is a raise from a worse hand than 2nd pair 1/20 times, and you can't fold to the river raise, don't bet the river in the first place.
Actuary
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 11:06 PM) *
I'm pretty serious guys. If you think this is a raise from a worse hand than 2nd pair 1/20 times, and you can't fold to the river raise, don't bet the river in the first place.


there's Math EV and then there is "it costs me $1 to see it", EV

THis doesn't come up enough to matter, so I lose a fraction of a BB calling
Actuary
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 11:06 PM) *
I'm pretty serious guys. If you think this is a raise from a worse hand than 2nd pair 1/20 times, and you can't fold to the river raise, don't bet the river in the first place.


but if you are serious, I'l re-consider
antistuff
QUOTE (Actuary @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 10:58 PM) *
so value or not?

*****

anti,

do we beat more hands that call or bet?

***********8

surely b/f is best.
I just cant, if only caller.
And I'm ok with that


that call for sure. in fact that seven is a good card against calling stations because somebody could have been holding it drawing and now they have a pair and will call a bet.

still, im not sure that betting this river for value is good. i just know how i would play it based on the pot size and that i cannot live with folding the best hand here ever.
Frez
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 12:51 AM) *
But I don't think this is a value bet in any size pot, to be honest.

This board is terrible for QQ. I'd be suprised if we had the 3rd best hand here.


Agreed. I think leading the river is a bet, given that board, that will only be called (or raised apparently) by a better hand. With 5 players at the river what are the chances someone doesn't have a K or a 8? Most KX hands are c/c-ing here, if for the size of the pot is nothing else, so it's unlikely you'll get a better hand to fold. I'd c/c, and pray to pick off a middle pair.


QUOTE (antistuff @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 1:12 AM) *
that call for sure. in fact that seven is a good card against calling stations because somebody could have been holding it drawing and now they have a pair and will call a bet.


I was thinking about this too, but what hands with a 7 are even in this pot at the river? He might he drawing you say, perhaps with 67s? 77? What about drawing with 89s or 88? Just add those to the list of reasons why a value bet is a bad play. What drawing hands could that 7 not have helped? Busted flush draws of course, so unless you're hoping As7s is calling that board (5 way!) I think that 7 is a terrible card.
CoranMoran
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 12:06 AM) *
I'm pretty serious guys. If you think this is a raise from a worse hand than 2nd pair 1/20 times, and you can't fold to the river raise, don't bet the river in the first place.


For what it's worth...

If I happen to be in this hand in the Button's position on this river with any piece, I am raising.

With 2 more players yet to act behind me, I know that my little piece is likely not the best hand.
But with the pot so big, I am willing to take a chance.
So I raise with the hope of potentially folding a better hand behind me.
And I hope that the PFR has whiffed with something like AQ or an underpair.

Point:
I'm not insisiting that my idea of raising here from the Button would be correct.
But I am suggesting that, in a pot this large, the Button raise that we see in this actual hand might not mean that we are beat 19/20 times.


--CM
Frez
QUOTE (CoranMoran @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 12:15 PM) *
For what it's worth...

If I happen to be in this hand in the Button's position on this river with any piece, I am raising.

With 2 more players yet to act behind me, I know that my little piece is likely not the best hand.
But with the pot so big, I am willing to take a chance.
So I raise with the hope of potentially folding a better hand behind me.

And I hope that the PFR has whiffed with something like AQ or an underpair.


What hands do you think will fold to this raise? Look at it from the other side - with 19.75 bets already in there, a bet and a raise in front, if it comes around to you with 22.75 bets in the pot and you need to call 2, aren't you gonna call with almost any piece of this. I think any reason you can give to take this chance, is also a reason why your opponents have to call. Or raise you with a better hand.
Actuary
I now think c/c is best.
Call 1, not 2.

I think for this reason..


We beat more hands that call than bet..
but we lose so often and should not fold for 1 bet (in case a Coran is at the table) that although 2 hands we beat might call, there will often be 2 hands that beat us which also call.
And sometimes, better hands won't bet, fearing a straight.

So in the end, 3 betting pf was bad, Building a pot with QQ.
Zach6668
QUOTE (Actuary @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 9:43 PM) *
I now think c/c is best.
Call 1, not 2.

So in the end, 3 betting pf was bad, Building a pot with QQ.

lol, I love you.

I don't care how busy you are with work/family/life, you must find your way to Vegas for a period of time between the 15th of June and the 2nd of July... plzz
RISEorFall
QUOTE (Actuary @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 5:43 PM) *
So in the end, 3 betting pf was bad, Building a pot with QQ.


thats a stupid statement.
its not like it was raised then 3 callers then you 3-bet

i have a feeling you've been being a bit results oriented in a lot of your threads lately...
Zach6668
QUOTE (RISEorFall @ Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007, 12:55 AM) *
thats a stupid statement.
its not like it was raised then 3 callers then you 3-bet

i have a feeling you've been being a bit results oriented in a lot of your threads lately...

I'm pretty sure that statement was more tongue in cheek. Act has to know about the value of 3-betting QQ preflop, even if all 10 players were going to call.
Actuary
QUOTE (RISEorFall @ Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007, 8:55 PM) *
i have a feeling you've been being a bit results oriented in a lot of your threads lately...


how so?
TJ_Eckleburg
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, May 21st, 2007, 10:10 PM) *
Well... I would never bet that river, for one.

I like your turn bet, btw. A lot of people will freeze up when the over hits in a 5 way pot. It's pretty likely we got caught at that point, but since we don't know, it's a good value/info bet, imo.

I would probably c/c, but not overcall, at least that would be the best case scenario, I think. However, I may make a crying call, especially if I'm closing the action, even if it's overcalling, since the pot is sooooo huge.


I completely agree with this.
Actuary
88 > QQ
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