Full Tilt 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 , A .
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6 , T , 7 (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 4 (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) 8 (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 raises, CO folds, Hero....


I couldnt decide whether I should 3-bet for value in case he had like 2 pair or go for the overcall assuming I split.
also, i was somewhat worried about J9

Id just call for the reasons stated.

-going for overcall
-tad afraid of J9

would SB really overcall?
He usually has an over pair here, that seems awfully light

To me it's 90% of "Are you at least tied with Mp1", and the other 10% concerned with the overcall.

When he has J9 you lose 3, when he has two pair/set you win 2.

I'd say you at least tie enough to risk it.

If SB calls loosely, or he has reason to not trust MP1 and thinks you would call light there...then consider smooth call...that's big ifs

For one more bet into a pot that size, I'm sure SB makes a 'crying' overcall. He's bet or raised every opportunity, I can't see him stopping now (absent any other info on him). For two more bets he's likely laying down any hand that doesn't have a 9.

For me, J9 is the only concern, and it seems unlikely given the preflop action. Likely a split with some other 9X or even 99. So I like going for the overcall.

Even though I feel J9 is unlikely, I think at best we're splitting - is MP1 raising the aggressor with less than a 9 here? Even if there is only a tiny chance that he has J9, exposing ourself to a reraise is -ev.

I think J9 is pretty reasonable given the pf action. he just limped, and had pretty good odds to call the rest of the way with his gutshot.

Actuary, when he has 2 pair/set I win 3 from him (plus the 1 from SB) which makes 4, and when he has J9 i lose 4 by raising

when I just call I win 3 maybe 4 (if SB overcalls) from 2 pair/set, and lose 2 if he has J9.

i also split 2 bets from SB if i tie by just calling (if he overcalls) and split just 1 if i raise.

so, on average, i think that if MP1 has an equal number of hands that are a 9 or better than 2 pair/set hands, i should just call
but, if he has more 2 pair/set hands, i should raise (although that's a lot to come to something pretty obvious)

2 pair/set hands:
88 - 3 combos
T8 - 15 combos
78 - 15 combos
68 - 15 combos
these all fit the betting pattern
77 - 3 combos
66 - combos
these dont, as id think these sets wouldve raised before the river

so, 4 hands, 48 combos that I beat

straight hands:
J9 - 21 combos
T9 - 15 combos
89 - 15 combos
79 - 15 combos
Q9 - 21 combos
K9 - 21 combos
A9 - 15 combos
99 - 3 combos

so, way more hands and way more combos ( i dont feel like adding them up)

i think on average here, then, this is a call >>>>>>>> raise
unless my logic is flawed

Could be, but limping E/MP with J9, then calling 2 more bets when it comes around???

I'm too busy for math.
i would not think SB overcalls always.

So, I'd think we are not against J9 too often.. so we can raise.
We lose 1/2 a BB when SB would overcall, and make 1 BB everytime we are not against a 9.
It's not J9 1/3 times (some villains would rather let you call/riaise if they had J9. He has no reason to ever put you on a 9 here)

It's my read of SB not-overcalling that makes me want to extract value from the river raiser

My guess is SB overcalls here, closing the action, 80% of the time.

Can you expand on that Actuary?

SB has bet or raised every single time. Do you really think he's going away for one more bet with 17.75 BB in there?

hes getting 4-1 on his next call, and if he's going to open limp it in MP1 i dont see why he would fold afterwards anyway, even if it was 3 more to him

welllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

expand on the fact I'm too busy for the math?
Or the fact I can't count how big the pot is?

Ok, how about we raise because J9 is very unlikely and we may get to split another 1/2 BB from SB and are ahead sometimes?

in the end, I think it's so close whether to raise ore not