Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($247)
MP ($201.15)
CO ($362.20)
Button ($168)
Hero ($218.80)
BB ($466.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, T.
2 folds, CO raises to $7, Button calls $7, Hero calls $6, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($28) 4, 7, 9 (4 players)
Hero bets $20, BB calls $20, CO folds, Button raises to $108, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?

things to consider: dead money
the villain is very very loose. he's 45/5/.5/244

also, the villain chats non stop and thinks he's good and all.

Since this hand is going to showdown, folding might not be all bad.

You have 12 outs not including overcards and the flush draw is not a nut draw.

Math would say fold, but the read could make you call.

I wait for a better spot.

I wish I had some FE, but I'd still shove here.

I know it's probably not the greatest move but I'd probably shove.

I think you want a piece of this guy - seems like he is in your head.

Wait for a better spot.

..if you can't make yourself wait, then shove. It reverses the pressure. Calling is NOT an option.

Effective odds of pushing here:

$229 in the pot (includes what's in there already, and his stack), and it would be $141 to push/call or whatever you want to call it.

We would be getting 1.62-1 roughly, meaning we'd need 38% equity to make shoving a breakeven play, assuming BB folds, and Button always calls (ie no fold equity).

Worst case scenario, he has a set, and we have 34.747% equity. Actually, worst case scenario is pair + fd (higher than ours), say Ad4d, which puts us at 32.424%.

However, when we include other hands, we're better than 38%.

Take this range I spent no time or effort creating and may be way off.

{JJ-99,77,44,Ad4d,97s,8d6d,8d5d,6d5d,97o}

If he's loose, there's a good possibility of any of these holdings. Of course, the other flushdraw+gutshot or FD+OESDs might not play like this postflop, depends on the player, but for that range, we're 46%. If anyone can think of a better range, I'll Stove it up and see.

I think it's close, but I probably shove and hope BB comes along as well.

This flop looks like a good place to check/raise. The villain has the chance to make the last meaningful raise when we bet out here.

As played, shove, because Zach showed it's basically neutral EV, but shoving is more fun than folding.

LOL ... j u s t ... LOL

I'm pretty sure if BB comes along, we're drawing very slim.

I cant see many hands except a bigger FD or a set, playing the way BB played.

I'd end up folding this.

I dont like putting in a semi-bluff and then feeling forced to make calls that are probably favoring my opponent

If villain is a bit decent, he is folding quite a few hands here if your pushing range are sets and combo draws in this spot. Overpairs don't match up well against hero's range if that is the case if you look at it from vilains perspective. Everytime he makes a fold when he has an overpair, this is huge for us. I'm not going to run a stove since Zach already did a pretty good job doing that. We match up pretty well against villains range if called.

I like the way you played it if you shoved over his raise.

-edit- Just saw that villain is essentially priced in, and is almost never folding. I still shove though.-

If BB has a bigger FD, we've still got 10 outs to beat him, and only have to duck 6 diamonds on the redraw. (because I don't think button ever has an overpair.)

If BB has a set, we still have 11 outs on the turn, and 10 on the river if the turn is a blank.

We're literally never drawing slim.

i was thinking more along the lines of button having (2 pair / set) and if BB comes along, with the possibility of a bigger FD, then we're drawing slim.

you cant be serious to think that a J,or 10 will be good if its 3 way all in

RT, give me a range for both of the players then, assuming we get it in 3 ways.

The only way we don't have a ton outs if it's a 3 way all in, is if we're up against a set, AND a higher flush draw. Even that gives us 4 outs twice. Obviously, that's not a good situation for our stack, however, we'd be getting a decent return:

If we were to get our entire stack in here, 3 ways, the pot would be $612.6 (including our stack). We've already invested $27 of our $218.80, so we'd have $191.80 to call, and we'd be winning $420.80. This gives us effective odds of 2.194-1. That means we'd need 31.3% equity to break even.

Here is how I'm arriving at my ranges. Bear with me as I work through this.

Button is loose, so he can have a lot of hands. I gave him the following range in the earlier post: JJ-99,77,44,Ad4d,97s,8d6d,8d5d,6d5d,97o, that gives him all sets, even TT/JJ overpairs that may not reraise pf, the only pair + nut flush draw available, two pair combos of 97, the OESF draw, even the other 2 gutshot SF draws.

The be honest, without any info about the BB, I could see him playing a pretty similar range, but I'll modify it a little based on flop play. Let's give him JJ-99,77,44,Ad4d,97s,8d6d,8d5d,6d5d,97o,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd. This just gives him a few more higher flush draws. I was going to take away the possibility of him having a set or two pair because it would be a trivially easy flop raise for him, looking for protection, but I'm not sure if I should give him that much credit yet.

Any arguments here? I find it tough to assign these guys ranges. Here's how we stack up against these particular raises, anyways:



We're better than we need to be, so it's actually +EV.

Now, I'm torn on the BB having set/2 pair type hands because I think they'd raise such a draw heavy flop, so for the sake of argument, I'm going to take those out of his range, and see what we get:



Heh, I thought that would actually increase our equity, but it actually makes it worse, just because the BBs range is heavy with FD hands, taking some of our outs vs button's potential set/2 pair, etc. Nonetheless, it's still better than the 31.3% equity we need to break even.

Let's say now we give BB a small chance of having a set, say we assign only 77 instead of all 3 sets (meaning it allows for him to poorly slowplay it 1/3rd of the time), and say only suited 97s (allowing for even less chance of a slowplay, although that works out to being only 3/12 card combos).

Anyways:



Again, greater than 31%.

Of course, my ranges could be off, but with this information, we're getting the price to call/shove.

- Zach

In my head was your 2nd scenario. Reason is, I kinda felt BB, if he had anything, it was a bigger FD or OESD. which narrows his range and makes us worse. since his narrowed range eliminates many of our outs.
Now, granted, a passive player or a "non-gambling" type might not call such large bets with just a draw. even with the odds he would be getting if we pushed.

which makes our read on BB important. C/O was the 1st raise pf. button called. and could have called with any 2 IMO. It's a bit of an odd bet by button since he only has 60 behind after his raise.
perhaps he thinks he can take it rigt here, right now with a large raise. My instinct tells me that he is trying to thin this hand out to HU and does want a call.

I'm sure he is trying to extract some value out of a hand like 2pair/ set opposed to shoveling the flop and not getting any calls.

But i have seen some weird plays. especially from loose people with position.

I think this is more situational and read dependent opposed to thinking we're @ 31% which is just enough to make it +EV so we should go for it. We all strive to make +EV decisions, but when we go on assumptions, some times we need more than just "on the edge of the positives" What i mean is, we assume that our best situation in this hand is a slight positive expected value.

maybe i'm losing EV overtime from situations like these, but I'd have to make my decision here based on my reads of this situation.

So, I'm sorta on the fence here since i wasnt at the table

Well, it's not that you're losing EV, or at least it shouldn't be. Your goal (in theory) as a cash game poker player (with a full bankroll) is to maximize your EV by taking every single +EV situation you can, even if it's a 0.000000000000001% edge, or whatever.

But, I know what you're getting at, but I just don't think you're defending it properly. If you can get a read or whatever that narrows down their holdings to something that puts us anywhere less than 31.3% equity, than it's a fold. For me, I don't necessarily have the best NL hand reading skills, simply based on my lack of experience, especially lately, with NL cash games. I'm just running the numbers. It would help us immensely if the OP provided a read on the BB, or if someone who is a bit better at the NL hand range thing could give me a range (in PokerStove format if possible), please do that.

how you do not get all in here i do not know.

dont fold

- Jordan

I disagree.

I agree.

I agree 100%

I would have checked the river, but that's me.

I would fold this, not because it's +EV or-EV, but because I would rather not get my money in on the draw, with someone else yet to act.

But that's me, and there are some good reasons to push.

I still fold

if you do not get money in here in nl, please, for your sake...don't play.

unless you play me, then you can play all day. and i will continue to be able to fund myself without getting a job for another 2-3 years until i graduate.



- Jordan

Let me know when your life heater runs out, young man.
Hitting these draws / folding two other players is not a long term +EV proposition.

Did you or did you not read the extensive pokerstove calculations and simulations I ran?

Honestly? No.

But I still love you Zach6668. You're totally tits as a moderator.

lol.

Unless you put them on super tight ranges which essentially boil down to just a set and a higher flush draw, I think it's mathematically correct to call/shove here. My ranges have to be off somewhere though.

life heater? lol

other guy just called $20 cold, no reason to think he is going to put his entire stack in after Hero shoves the rest in...I put my money in here like...100% of the time.

Implied tilt odds as well...cuz obv this draw never bricks out.

- Jordan