Actuary
Saturday, May 19th, 2007, 11:28 PM
QUOTE (mikeysong @ Saturday, May 19th, 2007, 11:11 PM)

which is why you should just play it fast and let them get caught up in the momentum. There is a better possibility for more bets to go in on the turn this way than when you check-raise the turn into 2 ppl.
I think given the flop action (and it's critical to consider the Turn in light of the precise flop aciton), that we can say a c/r almost always gets 4BB total from villains. If we are 3-bet - that's a bonus.
you'll just have to trust me.
Against most Stars .5/1 decent players, you are making more to c.r here.
What you bolded is being taken out of context.
The action will not slow down so much that I risk gettig a check all the way around.
It's significanly different to expect a Raise after I lead again, even after the flop was capped, than to simply say we don't fear a check thru.
When we lead, if it's Raised, given the prior action, I think the best case / most likely "good" scenario is Bet, Raise, Fold, I 3bet and he calls. And calls 1 more on the River. We win 4 BB instead of 6.
The Capper is in the wrong spot, imo, to make leading better.
3 scenarios:
I Bet, Raise, fold, I 3bet, Call.
Bet, Call
We make 4 BB
I bet, Raise, Call, I 3bet, Call, Call,
Bet, Call, Call
We make 8 BB
I bet, Call, Call
Bet, Call, Call
We make 4 BB
Given that the 1st (8 BB) scenario does not comprise 1/2 the likehoods in real life in these games I play, and a Turn c/r makes 6 BB on Turn+River (given the same likely holdings we used in the "Lead Turn" scenarios), I'd say it roughly demonstrates that a Turn c/r makes more money, when we win the hand.
Also, FWIW, it always better to make 6 BB putting in 3 BB, than putting in 4 BB, on average. *
Unless by putting in more bets you can get hands drawing very live to fold, but thats not the case.
* that's a theory I made up