checkymcfold
Monday, May 14th, 2007, 9:35 PM
i'm drunk, let's give some answers.
most of you were pretty spot on:
1. assuming this hand is shorthanded, this is a raise preflop. the high potential is not as bad as one would think with three-wheel-six. it also has a soot. so raise before people figure out that you only raise AAxx in EP and you get annihilated, esp at 50/100. this might be different at full ring, but i would raise in full ring as well in any game with any number of thinking players because any thinking player reads an ep limp as A2xx or a well-backed-up A3xx, and any ep raise as AAxx or a hand that prefers to be HU. at higher limits, also, it's much more important to err on the side of raising--you'll inflate pots to the point of ensuring that you can draw at half pots profitably. (nb: as played, the "hero" should go back upstairs 3way. with counterfeit protection and decent high potential, this is a pot-inflating hand for sure). another added benefit of raising is that you will fish out AAxx ALL DAY LONG when it three-bets you, and you can play any four cards very profitably against someone advertising AAxx in a HU situation. FYI: i recently ran a personal 3000 hand experiment wherein i limped more often for deception rather than raised more often for deception. my winrate dropped over 1BB/100 for the duration of that experiment.
2. as most of you said, c/r-ing the flop is the correct play, hands down (this is also the most egregious error made by the "hero"). the original preflop raiser raised a limper, so that means he's more likely to be going low than high (an open raise usually signifies a high/HU hand, whereas the more limpers that are raised the more sure we can be that the raiser has a good low), so there is no reason to expect that he will be checking behind on this flop. but why should we keep everyone in here? that has to do with the STRENGTH of our draws on the flop--a ginormous wrap that includes a wheel will make the nuts if it hits most of the cards that help it, and the board has flopped rainbow. the important thing to note here is the general principle for LO8 that you want to thin the field when your draws are multiway but not to the nuts (or one way nuts only), but keep everyone in when all or most of your drawing outs bring you a nut/nut type hand. since this hand falls into the latter category, and since the preflop action indicates nothing to suggest that we won't be bet at by the CO, this is a very very easy c/r. honestly, if i saw someone bet into a raiser on this flop and show down the hand the "hero" had, i'd immediately label him/her as a target for checkraising and other manipulations of overly aggressive and isolation-happy o8 players. that a conceivably winning 50/100 player would do this makes me LOL, and long for the days i get my roll up to those stakes

.
3. turn 3-bet is bad. when someone raises the turn on a 2-low board, s/he ALWAYS has a hand that is ahead of whatever we have for the high. a board pair or non-low non-heart ****s us here, a significant portion of our outs are 1/2 pot outs and/or 2nd best flush outs perhaps, and 3-betting is terrible when the villain raises the turn and tells us s/he has a legitimate high hand that s/he wants to show down (this is what a turn raise on a 2-low board signifies, unless a player is extremely tricky and has a read--in any case, i can surmise from the hand action that the villain in this hand, the CO, is 10x the player that the "hero" is, even without knowing what the villain holds). and we don't often lose a bet if we just call and c/r the river instead when we hit, either.
with regard to #3, a seemingly interesting discussion becomes one connected to the question asked by the 2+2er at the end: the river pairs the queen, no heart--what action now? if one really understands the turn action--a flop raise/caller saying "ok, i'm likely behind" turning into a turn-raising "ok, i'm likely ahead now," even if we 3-bet that raise--it is JUST PLAIN RETARDED to think that firing anything on the end would ever induce a fold. this would be a horrid spot to continue through on a whiffed-outs bluff on the end, since the villain raised the queen when it hit, and then the river paired his raising card. the ONLY conceivable hand in the villain's range that would consider folding a paired queen river is a34x, and that is probably the least likely hand the villain could be holding here. i'd say this is AKxx/AAxx/KQ nearly 90% of the time, and those hands are just not going to fold the end. that the 2+2er thought this was the really interesting question related to the hand also makes me LOL (since he fu
cked up so badly earlier), but i'm drunk often and LOL easily, so i can't say that it was really objectively that funny. i just found it hilarious, and thought the hand made for interesting o8 discussion for other reasons.
also, let me know if posting stuff like this helps--i can round up at least 2-3 hands from every session i play that i could set up in a similar way.