Judging by the hands I tend to post here, I seem to struggle most with certain bubble decisions. Not sure if I should push here.
$1.20 9-man on Stars. I had stolen a couple of blinds/pots PF in the recent past as I became shortstacked, but probably had a pretty tight image overall.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t1605)
SB (t3775)
BB (t2080)
UTG (t6040)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 6.
UTG folds, Hero ???.

You're true M is under 3. I think you must push unless you REALLY think you'er image has been tarnished. Even then I'm only thinking about folding because we are on bubble. ANd that's probably pretty weak on my part to even think that way.

If you have been playing small ball(proabbly not if you were playing tight) then you could get away with a 2 1/2 times bet and get away from the hand still with not much affect to your M (still in the 2 range).

Push.

Absent a read of either of the blinds being loose, I'm likely pushing this hand.

You're the shortstack...

You're on the bubble...

Your M is 7...

You have an Ace on the button...

I'm pushing even if the blinds are loose as hell. We have a FAR better hand than a loose blind will call with, so a call isn't bad.

Easy peezy!

So you'd push with any Ace hand in this situation?

Definitely push. You are on the bubble, but you are the shortstack. If you're on the bubble in third place and someone else is way behind you, that might be a different story.

ETA: JMB, I'd push here with any ace, any pair, any two broadway cards, and a lot of suited connectors. Which is not to say you have to be that loose--it's individual preference. But any ace or pair for sure.

you still got 10 bb fold.

I see a pattern developing here...LB, you are waaaayyyy too tight!

you may be right but the smaller buyin sng you play the tighter you gotta play to still cash, ya know? Those 1.20's, just let the other guys kill themselves by pushing a6 and having the other guy instacall with a9.

This is precisely why I was so uncertain about what to do in this situation. Even if you're the shortstack with 4 or 5 players left, you can sneak into the money at the $1.20 tables just by waiting for other players at the table to make just the stupid kind of moves that LB mentions. The problem, as I've mentioned before, is that you'll often find yourself ITM as the shortstack in push/fold mode.

Slacker, everything I've read about mid-late stage SnG play says that cards like suited connectors and medium broadways become almost valueless at this point in the tourney. Isn't there a significant difference between the value of a hand like Ax and something like T9s in a situation like this?

Probably.

*********************

LB,

Uh... so he instacalls with A9...

That's not his whole range. We should expect him to call with hands that beat us here pretty much 100% of the time. We also except that he may call with worse hands, worse aces, KQ, KJ, KTs, QJ and QT, if you really think his range is that wide. We also rate to pick up the blinds more than often enough to counter the times he happens to wake up with a better hand.

I've also noticed from your posts that you are incredibly tight, especially in situations when you should be playing looser and/or more aggressive.

As an aside, wouldn't these lower buyin players be more likely to tighten up significantly at the bubble, allowing us more of a chance to steal their blinds?

come on Zach! We don't want them to call with QJ, K10, J10, etc. Those are coin flips, but yes I know when to loosen up I dunno. My pushing range in this spot is 88+ and AJ o. About that A9 hand that we were supposed to call a push, my calling range is 1010+ and AQ. I dunno but I'm perfectly fine with 10 bb and I don't push a6 until I get 7 bbs. It's worked for me. 10 dollars to 270 on 3 different sites in a month, I must be doing something right.

Yes. You do.

The range of [22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo], which is a good loose range, consists of 27.6% of all of the card combinations. This means we would pick up the blinds 72.4% of the time, while having 44% equity 27.6% of the time. That works for me.

Bleh, I'm no math expert, so I'm not sure how to do this with both blinds, but for the purposes of this demonstration, assume we only have one blind to deal with (say the SB folds 100% of the time) Maybe Simo or someone can do this properly for me after. Anyways, the EV of the push is:

0.724*225 + 0.276*0.44121*1680 + 0.276*0.55879*-1605

= 162.9 + 204.58 - 247.53

= T119.95.

> 0

I think I'm siding with LB on this one, fold A6 here. The problem with these limits is that while you might get called by something like KQ or KJ, you WILL get called by any ace that dominates you despite the fact you doubling through them hurts them. Since you're far more likely to get called by A9 than KQ, you're going to find yourself 70/30 most times getting called. Right now, picking up the blinds isn't your goal, you need to either double or sit tight. With 11x the BB, you'll have a better spot to get your money in.

And while Zach is probably right that this is a +EV push, it's not necessarily a +TEV (or whatever the term is again) on the bubble due to payouts.

I'm saving up for sng power tools. I think I need to.

Yeah, I don't have it either.

It's best to just wait for Cop to get on.

You rang?

Using the above range this is a fold, with a push losing .3%, so its pretty close. Pushing range for a profit is 66+,ATo+,A9s+.

Where did that range come from? Its not the Sklansky-Chubokov top 27.6%, although perhaps real players have a "pair bias", "Ace bias" and "soooted bias" so they may not be calling with the theoretically perfect 27.6%

I'm going to give you a very rough estimate.

FWIW I think that the calling ranges are a lot tighter than JTo ... even $1.20 players have to be knowledgeable enough to know that is not a hand to call an all in with.

I'll assign these probabilities:

SB and BB call with top 20%
When called by one player you have 33% equity, when called by both you have 20% equity.

Probability that you get called by one player either SB or BB is : (1-(.8*.8) =36% (probability you get called by at least one player) - .2*.2 = 4% (Probability you get called by both players) = 32% for being called by either player.

So the EV calculation is as follows = (Pn = Pnotcalled, P1 = Pcalledby1, P2 = Pcalledby2)
Blinds*Pn+ AmountWon*P1*Equity - Amount Lost*P1*(1-Equity) + AmountWon*P2*Equity - AmountLost*P2*(1-Equity)
= 225*0.64+ 3285*0.32*0.33 - 1605*0.32*0.67 + 4815*0.04*0.2 -1605*0.04*0.8

EV = +134.. Slightly advantageous, and a worthwhile push.

Of course this model is very crude because the BB would obviously tighten his range if the SB called but I'm too lazy to work through more variables and the difference is not likely to be significant.

For this push to be breakeven, the blinds would have to call with the top 40% or so, and they definitely aren't calling that wide.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

My range came from Pokerstove. I plugged in a range which I thought a loose donkey would call with, and then kinda did a reverse thing in Pokerstove and it said it was the top 27.6% of hands.

I know EV HU is positive, but couldn't figure it out vs 2 people. I suck at teh maths.

Bloody hell, you guys can make things complicated.

$1.20 players do tighten up at the bubble but cdipierr is right that they will still make loose calls of pushes. I've seen guys call pushes with hands like A6 even on the bubble.

So what's the consensus, push or fold?

(By the way, what do you think of my fancy new avatar? Mmmm, Evangeline Lilly.....)

You did know what I was talking about because you repeated it in English! Those are the 27.6% of hands that a loose donkey might call with, vs the best 27.6% hands to call with.

Re the EV post, that takes into account tEV only, not $EV.

They may become "almost valueless" in terms of using them to draw (because you have no "room in your budget" to call draws, and no implied odds for if you hit since everyone's stacks are short). But they are not valueless when you are in the Orange or Red Zone and push preflop--this is straight out of HoH2 (btw, I'm sliding a little back more toward HoH from PTF, especially in STTs and tables with loose callers where the stealing techniques Snyder advises just don't work). First off, you have the same FE regardless of what cards you call with. If you do get called, medium broadways and suited connectors can still have some showdown power, though in different ways. The broadways, you're hoping that you get called by something like 99 where you have a coinflip; or if you're called by an A, hopefully the kicker is not one of your broadways (if it is, then that sucks but you still have 25-30% or whatever it is, which is not nothing). With the suited connectors, you have all kinds of possibilities. First of all, if you're called by something like AK, you're not going to be dominated like you would be with Ax--you'll have two live cards plus the straight and flush possibilities. And even if you get called by an overpair, as we all know a middle suited connector gives you the best chance to suck out.

Make sense?

Yeah I know, that's why I needed you with the SnGPT.