Blinds were 200/400 with 25 ante so preflop pot was 825.

Small blind has 5.3k
BB has about 6.5k

Folds to SB

Absent of any reads:

What does the SB push here? Anything?

What does the BB need to call a push here?

Going by the SAGE system, SB is not yet in push/fold territory. If I recall correctly, the ratio of the smallest stack to the BB has to be 10 or less for push/fold, and SB's is about 14. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

SB should be pushing a lot of hands here, maybe top 40%. BB probably needs top 15% or so to call.

This is really a position where you should be pushing? You have a lot of chips and game is not head's up even, just battle of blinds. Is that same thing?

I don't push ever in this spot.

With blinds and antes, M is around 5... thats pretty close to push/fold?

I may go to push mode if we are 7 handed or short. I still am apt not to though. You can make a decent size bet that will get opponent to fold the same as a push and still have chips. You will still have a whole circuit of table before you will pay blinds again if normal raise does get repopped.

Only time I start picking hands to go in against here is if BB is prone to reraise. In that case then I would push rather than normal raise.

Would also like to see actual hands and chip stacks before making a decision.

I think it takes more than just your own cards that make a proper decision at this point.

would help to know more, ie
how many are left, how many cash?
how many at the table, what their stacks are
if we can pick up chips easier by stealing blinds, etc than pushing/calling pushes

350 left, 150ish cash.
Average is 7500 ish


Here is my thinking: I think that to call a push, BB will need top 10-15%... we will say 15%

If SB pushes anything and is called 15% of the time, of which SB wins 30% then the following is the EV of a push:

.85 * 825 + .05* 10825 - .10 * 5300 = +632.

The breakeven point is if the BB calls with the top 64% of hands.
If we tighten the winning percentage on hands when the BB calls to 25%, the breakeven point still depends on the BB calling with almost 40% of hands...

Seems like a clear push with anything.

Is there a flaw in this reasoning?

Your first post was a bit deceptive, I thought this was a heads-up hand (thus my response about SAGE).

I don't see how it was deceptive, I said it was a blind battle, and that the action folded to the small blind... but that's neither here nor there...

Any thoughts on the EV analysis?

Okies, absent of any reads I still say standard raise or push accomplishes the same thing with less risk and chance to take more post flop.

When Q is has a low M and you are revolving around 1/2 to 2 times the Q I make my red zone range smaller as you now will be running into all the people who have read HoH going wild. Plus you'll have all the donks in there too. You need to be opportunist and without a read, you cannot do it. You have 7 or 8 hands to get a better hand than ATCs.

Standard raise will put you in less favourable position if you get played back at decide to fold. That still gives you hands to find a spot. Standard raise is still +EV in my opinion. I think lesser so than your scenario but you have time to find another spot. If you decided to get all your chips in, in a better position post flop, that will make my EV approach or surpass yours as I am cutting down the amount of risk to losing all my chips in this hand.


So I say you are close to push/fold range but I don't think I would ever, ever push here without a read with ATCs. I know this may raise the EV argument that gets so tired but I think risk vs reward is best scenario here and I'll take a lesser EV reward to give myself a better spot to double up this hand(post flop play) or in the next circuit.

My plays ev is
.85*825-.15*1400=
701.25-210=
491.25

Which
1. I can make up those extra chips post flop.2. Keeps me going a little longer, although in worse shape, I still have a circuit to find a hand. This play can also help get a read on opponent for next time. So the info I can gain also adds to future value.


I've rambled enough. You're math is sound but I think there is another level of thinking needed in this particular scenario with no reads.
When Q is low, I love it(my style sticks me here quite often) because I can assure you that you have more time to get chips with less risk.

The thing that you're forgetting is that by not pushing, we give ourselves a chance to be outplayed by our opponent who has position. If we raise and he calls, now what? We are OOP in a raised pot, probably with a trashy hand but not a lot of chips left. Do we c-bet it if we miss or do we just check and fold? These are the reasons why pushing is far better than making a small raise.

If the BB folds, we add a significant chunk of chips to our small stack. He needs strong hands to call since he's not exactly desperate yet and if he calls and is wrong, he gets crippled. In this situation, pushing is like a million times better than making a standard-type raise and then having to play post flop OOP.

As for the hand itself, I'd be pushing a majority of our hands. His stack is not one where he can really fool around, so he probably needs someting like KT+, A8+ QJ+ and 44+ if he wants to call, and I think taht's a fairly broad range if he's in a gambling mood. With his chipstack and the fact that he can wait a bit, you can probably shave even more hands off of his calling range.

If you feel you can not play post flop than or this is the best hand you're goping to get, then by all means push. I also, after rereading the OP for th ethirs time, think that my standard size raise would be just over a quarter of my stack which is a committing amount to some peeps(some say a third) so depending on comfort zone, that would lead to a push if you feel this will commit you.

Harrington doesn't talk orange zone much and there is reason for that, it's complicated.

I only know from experience that you DO NOT have to push in this scenario. BB is strong player, yes push (you'll get outplayed). If you are well below the pack with your chipstack, push, you need to catch up. If you cannot interpret flop texture to a range of hands, push. If you have no idea what you may do after the flop, then push. If you cannot get away from a hand once committing a X% of chips to the pot, then push. Again I may do the same relooking my raise to my chips. I have changed my comfort level closer to a quarter when it used to be a third of my stack.

My main issue, is risk versus reward here. 825 chips makes my stack 6125 which leaves me in same zone with more chips but the same situation(orange zone M=7.4). I do have a bit longer to make move. Nice percentage jump but doesn't change your position at all. Still in orange zone where Q is in orange zone.

If I lose I am out.

If I raise and get those chips I am still in the same position as a push. If I get played back at and chicken out I am now just into the red zone(m=4.7). If flop scares me, same thing.

I am still alive and I am still sitting within half to double the average stack. Now I would feel the urgency a bit more but my relative postion to everyone else has barely changed.

It is mainly, do you feel comfortable making a stand now? If so, fine. I just don't believe it is a must in this scenario.

It's not a matter of a lack of post flop ability that is the reason to push. It's the fact that you dont' have the chips to make any moves. If the flop comes down AT3 rainbow and you had raised with JT, what do you do? Do you go all in here, do you check-call all in, check fold or what? You have no options because you have no chips. Unless you get lucky and actually catch a piece of the flop, you're playing a guessing game again.

Pushing preflop REQUIRES you opponent to have a hand to call with. He puts his tourney on the line by calling. That's important.

theres enough chips left here for ye olde 2.5x raise to 1k. If youre forced to fold youve still got a playable stack, and 1k gets almost as many hands to fold as a push. If Ive got a playable hand, my second choice would be limping, push a distant third

I guess I'm a centrist on this one. I'm not going to go so far as jjgoldy who talks about pushing with ATC, and though my views come closest to Acid Knight's (nice posts, dude), I wouldn't even push with "most hands". I also, however, totally disagree with Cubby and Cop. This situation is clearly push/fold in my book. I would push with a variety of high card hands, any pair, and suited connectors, and fold everything else. I would not limp; and I would most certainly not make a non-push raise (ack, makes me cringe to think about it).

ETA: Cop's line (raise to 1k) would be a reasonable option if this were in fact a HU battle, since hero would then have position the rest of the hand. But you're not going to get many hands to fold laying 2.4-1 odds for BB to call; and then he has position on you the rest of the way. Yuck. At least with the limp (which I don't much like but definitely like better than the raise to $1k) you are only investing 200 to see if BB will let you get away with a 4-1 pot odds gamble; and if the flop doesn't bring any goodies, you can c/f without taking any serious hit to your stack (or getting tempted, as Acid Knight alludes to, to call villain down with some kind of marginal but not completely worthless hand, as you become increasingly pot committed).

I dont like giving BB those odds much either, but to get him under 2:1 forces you to raise to 1500 which is pretty close to pot committing.

I think people need to watch Poker After Dark more to get a better appreciation for limping.

I watch it religiously myself. I don't hate the limp here (depending on the hand) like I do the non-push raise.

After rethinking my stack, I don't mind any of the options. Limp with some hands, Push(especially if feeling committed, raising or folding are all decent options here. It's orange zone play. As long as you have some strategic reasoning behind them they may all have value. I just do not like pushing here with your Q where it is and playing an unknown opponent.

My main argument was that a raise with villain's stack where it is would get close to the same calling range as a push, so why risk the push. You may be giving them better odds but they may well feel committed if they were to call this hand with a small stack and forego the battle until they had a much better spot.

Disagree on two levels. First, I don't think the calling ranges are the same (certainly were I in villain's shoes, they would not be). Second, a non-push raise is risky too, in different ways. What if you flop bottom pair? Had you pushed and he called, you might see with the cards face up that you were the only one who hit the flop (which is a decent probability). But instead the cards are still face down and you are OOP. What now? Bet and fold to a push? Check and then try to figure out what villain's bet/push means? Yuck.

We'll have to agree to disagree as I am tiring of this discussion as clearly this is more opposing points of than anything and as I has said many times previous, we're in the orange zone, it is complicated. And since now we hae had all possible options included in this scenario. Pushing ATC is random. If I was feeling pot committed, we know this is a +EV move. Copernicus' has brought up limping which is a good scenario if you look at your cards first, I had been on the side of what to do with ATCs. My idea of raising is valid if you do not feel pot committed (it is a close call, so it is personal preference). And if you were super tight, you can just fold.

And to me, calling my raise with a larger range than if I pushed is personal preference but the argument has been that in the chip situation we are in(villain is in the same situation)we are in, we should be making a decision for all our chips before seeing a flop. Why would we just call this hand without pushing if we were villain? It seems to me to be the same arguement. Having position is the only difference. And AS I have already stated, between the time I make my range and when the flop comes down, I MAY feel like I have more info leading to a better decision.

So again, it is the unknown.

So what I will do in these situations, is not do anything without looking at my cards and see from my cards what my best option is, likely folding, limping or raising.

And yet again, I feel situation is tons different if average stack is of a larger amount.

And just like any situations of the unknown, we can only go based on experience. My experience says that you(SlackerInc) plays uniquely from my average player so I would not change tactics in an unknown situation.

Being unique is a good thing when it comes to poker so it is not a hack just stating I would not change things on what I feel is a small minority of players.