Final 6 of a $10 tourney (170 runners).

I have 99 UTG - blinds are 1500/3000 & I raise to 7500 (standard for me). Folds to the BB. I've played with him a bit & he's pretty solid in a nittish way - runs at 13/9/2.

He shoves for 21K total, so another ~14Kish for me. Usually with this bloke I assign a pretty tight range, however, I've raised his blinds 2 of the last 3 times (with legit hands, but none that were shown down) so he may be getting a bit edgy with me.

Folding would leave me just under 25K, or about 8 BB's. Calling & losing would leave me with 11Km or under 4 BB's. And I'm calling 14K into 30K.

What's everyonés thoughts here - does anyone fold this, ever?

30k+antes in pot, your getting over 2-1 here, can't see how you can ever fold this. He could easily have a higher pp, but if he does, gg you. 99 is a pretty strong hand 6handed and u just cant fold here

FWIW - no antes, so just the 30K in the pot.

With his tight image, I would usually think that he's not playing back at me with any hands that I outright beat. He'll play with some coinflips (AJ+, KQ) & obv hands that dominate me (TT+). I just couldn't get out of my head that adding my 7.5K + the blinds to his stack would be important enough for him to push wide here, especially after I'd raised his button 2 of the past 3 orbits.

Gonna have to be read based, but he's squarely in the red zone here and can really be pushing any PP, And any AT+ Maybe even as low as A8+...but his numbers seem to indicate he would be tighter than that.

The only thing that would give me pause is if he seems the type that will just fold forever and be blinded out without hitting a big hand. Then I might give him my raise and take it back over the next few orbits.

This is one of the situations where you have to close your eyes and call. The pot is laying you good odds, and I agree that against his range those odds are more than sufficient. It sucks, because you might be way behind or you might lose a coinflip, but I don't see laying it down here. FWIW, if your standard raise were 3x, this decision would be even easier.

That's exactly what I did. BB had KK & it was GG me.

As the advice has stated in this thread I think the call is correct, it's just situations like these (when villain is playing pretty tight) that I think to myself "I KNEW he had to be ahead".

But what's the alternative? I can't fold 99 UTG 6 handed just because the BB is tight.

Re raising 3X BB - that's a preference thing.... I just prefer 2.5X BB myself.

At that level 2.5x is pretty standard.