My question isn't whether to fold or not, obviously I don't plan on it. Rather whether to reraise or not. Villian is like 42/7/1. He makes some questionable calls but I have yet to see him make a move or reraise without the goods(notice his low AF). This is obviously not a bluff. I originally figured he had a J or FD and assumed since flush completed he would bet river with either of those hands. A weaker opponent would play a jack similar to how he played that hand, and same with the flush draw, up until river. However, he is competent and wouldn't throw in a reraise on river with the flush or lone jack I'm almost certain. So hand range seems to be narrowed down to a boat or straight flush. I pretty much discounted straight flush but I do think J3, J7, and J5 are in his range. In fact he took a large pot earlier in the session with J5s to a raise after flopping trip 5s so I know he plays garbage like that.

So eliminating nut flush and Jx from his range safely, we're left with 33, J3, JJ, J7, J5. I left out 55 because I don't think he calls turn with it. If we use that narrow range I am only ahead of 33. Of course if we widen range to nut flush then it seems like easy push. Given his AF and seemingly decent grasp of the game I just eliminated the nut flush but maybe I shouldn't have?

At first glance this seems like easy push but when taking another look I'm not so certain. This isn't a disguised bad beat post I just found given villian, his stats, his range, and the obvious showing of strength that maybe the decision isn't as obvious as I originally thought. What do you guys put him on?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $200
UTG+1: $566.95
CO: $326.50
Button: $78
SB: $392.40
Hero: $322

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 7 7
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: J 3 J ($16, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Turn: 7 ($16, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds.

River: 5 ($40, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $20, Hero raises to $100, UTG+1 raises to $200,

Insta Call,

He has a Jack

you didn't even read it lol, we are going to need stack sizes for this one.

Shove.

Is he minraising with J7, J5, J3 (or JJ)? I say almost never. Only reasonable hand that beats you is quads, and villain will very likely pay you off if he has AJ, KJ, or the flush (I think he has the flush). He could also very well have a lower full house.

edit: I was kind of assuming in my head that you both had about $400 before the hand, but stack sizes are needed.

double edit: Thinking about it more, I don't think the flush re-raises there, but I still think you should shove.

triple edit: Meh, now I've confused myself. I'll let the experts take over...

I'd say this looks more like AhKh, AJ, or 33 more than anything else, although JJ is certainly possible as well. I'm shoving. I doubt he is raising with J7, J3, or J5 preflop. What are stack sizes?

I was going to say, no one mentioned that he had raised pf, which should narrow his range significantly, unless Lavitz is saying he raised with J5 the hand he won, otherwise that read is particularly meaningless.

I think this is AJ like a bunch of the time, 33, AKh is definitely a possibility as well, like Snamuh said.

Depending on stack sizes, I would probably shove.

I think this is almost always a shove unless your stacks are crazy.

I think that, seeing that he raised preflop, his most likely holdings are JJ, 33 or the nut flush and I am inclined to think JJ or the nut flush seeing that he was very passive on flop and turn.
If you are really deep call, <200 bb I'd shove

I'm even more willing to believe its AhKh because of his very low aggression rating, seems like he doesn't c-bet flops he misses.

Hi, I just wanted to be a bit like Harrington. Please be gentle to me, if this is the biggest bullshit you've ever read. I dont know whether this is the right way to think about the hand nor whether the pott odds calculation is right.
But I thought to post this in this way:

If he is a solid player, I would ask myself which hands I would use to reraise a check-raise in this spot:
JJ
33 (maybe)
55 (maybe)
J3
J5
J7

I think every other hand would just call his check-raise.

JJ --> 1 Hand possible WE LOSE
33--> 3 Hands possible WE WIN
55--> 3 Hands possible, but unlikely to have it on the river, so lets discount it to 1 Hand possibility WE WIN
J3--> 6 possible Hands, but also unlikely to raise with, so lets discount this as well to 1 Hand possibility WE LOSE
J5--> The same. But he had J5 in another hand before, so lets say its a little bit more propable, 2 Hands possibility WE LOSE
J7--> 2 possible Hands WE LOSE

So I dont think a reraise is a good idea here, because we could be easily behind here. So the best thing to do is, I think call or fold.

Lets look at it in detail:

We call and are losing to
6 Hands

We call and are winning to
4 Hands

That means we are winning 4/10 or 40% of the time. That means we need 1,5:1 odds to make calling right.
And the pot is offering us 340:100 or 3,4:1 so this is an easy call.

PLUS this could be a stone cold bluff (but not really propable) or any other hand we are beating. So I would call but not reraise.

ur missing the fact he wont raise preflop wih j5, j3, etc...its either nut flush or 33 or jj. your way ahead of that range. push.

he wont? why not, because you wont? lots of players raise w/wide varieties of hands for reasons just like this, the OP states that these hands are within his range, do you have some other info that OP doesn't?

this is a tough spot between rr and call, obv fold is no option. sometimes check-raising the river will confuse players and they may think you are trying to take it away, so this may make it slightly more possible for the flush... man, i would take a while with this if i were in the spot. i'd prob. play it safe and flat call, but sometimes im a wuss in spots like this, so i could be wrong.

Even if he will raise with the hands that beat us, it's much, much, much more likely he raised with a hand that we beat here. If we get it all in and he scoops the pot, nh sir. I think not raising is criminal.

Edited to include stack sizes.

Once again I am not thinking about folding and I was aware he min raised pre-flop but I wasn't entirely sure what it meant. He has a very small raising percentage as opposed to his high limping percentage so at first I figured maybe premium hand.

Flop check tells me nothing.

As for turn action, anything from a small PP, a boat, flush draw, or Jx might play it this way.

He value bets river then min reraises a hard reraise on a paired board. This is such an obvious sign of a monster but what kind? Jx? Defintley not. Nut flush? Once again, I don't feel he is min reraising my obvious sign of a monster on a paired board with a flush. 33? Yes. J3,J5,J7,JJ? Yes. 55? Unlikely he called turn with it and didnt fire c-bet on flop but possible. I am beating 55 and 33 here. 68s? Yes

To take a look a min raise pre-flop it could've been an accidental click of raise button, a legitimate hand, or just garbage. He does have a low raising percentage leading me to believe that he didn't intentionally raise a hand like J5s although with a loosey goosey opponent like this then it is possible. If he legitimately raised, then JJ is only hand that makes sense given his low raising percentage.

That's kind of a weird hand. I don't think I shove the river though. There's a good chance he's re-raising your check raise with the nut flush thinking you made a worse one or maybe with a worse boat, but I think a call is the better play here. You really have to include J3, J5, and J7 in your range. I know I might pump it up preflop with a suited hand like that if I feel like I have good control over the table. Plus he's got most of the money on the table so he must be running well. It definitely isn't out of the question. As much as I might love to jam I think calling is better.