Its 4 am at Windsor, and the table is extremely loose preflop and soemhat passive postflop. You are playing 2/5 NL, with a 200 max buy in. You have around 750 in front of you. Dealt qh9h in CO +1, 4 limpers to you, you limp, big stack on the button makes it 20, everyone calls you call. The big stack has around 1500 in front after recently winning a 1k pot AIPF with AA vs KK

Flop:
K 8 4 with two hearts

Checked to the button who makes a very small bet of 25. It is folded to another young guy on your right, who just came from the 10/20 game that broke and is sitting with just over the max buy in of 200, with about 230. He makes it 70. You overcall, and the button overcalls.

Your reads here are the new guy could have such a wide range of hands, from another FD, TPGK, two pair, or a set, or reading weakness, he could have air. Your read on the button Is most likely AA, AK, kQ, Or mid PP 99-QQ and cant fold.

Turn: 9

This gives you what is probably 5 more outs in addition to your 2nd nut flush draw. The new guy pushes for his last ~130, you make the call, and the button OVERCALLS, you now squarely put him on KQ, AK, or AA.

River: 9

You count your chips out, 495 left, and going with your read of AK or AA, possibly KQ, you push all in and hope he makes a hero call.

Thoughts?

First thought is that an overcall here is VERY bad. You have the preflop raiser on your left who bet the flop for a surprisingly small amount and has now been reraised. Calling $70 here is a pretty decent sized leak because it's quite possible that the button will reopen betting and you'll get stuck throwing away $70 or calling too much money with a naked flush draw.

Aside from that, I think things are alright.

Do you remember if the king was the K ?

If not, then I suspect the button has A K .

Ordinarily, I like a big bet with a surprise hit because it looks like a desperation move from a busted flush draw. But with a dry side pot, that doesn't make any sense.

There's already 600 or so in the pot, so we might get action from TPTK for all of our chips. I don't know. I like a value bet for 225.

If he has a hand that beats us, he's played it very passively.

i was worried about the overcall of 70, but the pot was already big...120 preflop, so over 200 when i called the 70. Knowing the button as passive without an absolute monster helped me make the call, in addition to his tiny bet which could be weakness

I dunno. I make it tastier for big stack, with a bet of about half my stack. Of course, I'm insta-pushing my RUNNING NINES for the suckout trips.

i dont hate the overcall. he's getting 215:70 and the only bad outcome is that the button repops it, which his read is that the button is passive postflop. the most likely outcome is that the button calls the raise and now he's gotten 260:70, or just under 4:1. The chance of getting overflushed is real low. the button is getting tied to his hand and in most cases, hero will be getting 4:1 + whatever implied odds he's got --- the "new guy" is getting pot committed as well. if the turn pairs the board or just completely misses hero, he can fold if he's got to. he was getting odds to see just one card -- throw in that maybe 20% of the time he gets to see the river for free and I think $70 is a low enough price to make a call +EV

I used to think the chance of getting overflushed was really low at one time. Hate this game.

Hero's action does not complete action on this street. You are discounting the possibility that the Button will reraise of which there is a definite chance. If the Button repops to 200-300, the EP calls, Hero is going to have to fold. It's always tempting to draw at flushes when there is a possibility that you can win a big pot, but there are certain situations in which is it very easy to get stuck in the middle of raising war with just a naked draw if you aren't careful. This is one of them.

im not discounting this possibility, i just think its not a big deal since

A. hero's read is that button is very passive postflop
B. button bet $25 into a pot of $120 the first time, so didnt show that he is likely going to protect his hand with a big reraise
C. his implied odds + 4:1 is very nice, even just to see one card.
D. thanks for telling me he isnt closing the action

I am always suspicious when someone makes a unusually small bet into a pot and then someone min-raises them. Often, they made the small bet becuase they wanted to be raised so that they could reraise. That happens fairly frequently.

im surprised there is so much debate on the call of 70, i thought i would receive more criticism for the call of 130 on the turn...

If I have the math right, there were 8 to the flop for $20 each and then 3 in to the turn for $70 each, which makes the pot $160 + $210 = $370. You only need to call $130 here. You're getting almost 4-1 and you're about a 4-1 dog to hit your flush. If your 9 or Q is also a winner, or if the button comes along, that only strengthens your equity and puts you in a better position in the pot.

The thing is, you can't just play street by street. You have to look at what will happen on the next streets due to your action on the current one. On the flop, if you called the $70, even if the button folded you have to figure that you're going to be faced with the same $130 bet on the turn. Your hand is only going to improve about 20% of the time on the next card, so you're not getting very good odds to improve from the flop to the turn and it's likely that you'll be priced out to see the river.

As it went down, your call on the turn is automatic. The flop is where arguments can be made for folding.

The overcall on the flop only works if the Button follows the Hero's action with a call.

The New Guy only has an additional 130 behind, so against him we really aren't getting great implied odds. Based on his actions, check raising on the flop and then open pushing the turn he could very well be representing middle or bottom set. KK is less likely, but based on his play we certainly have to include those hands in his holdings. So if the button folds we're left heads up against someone who has displayed clear strength and doesn't have a deep enough stack to merit a huge payoff for us.

If the button raises it is possible we're stuck in the middle of a raising war as I described above. We may get lucky and win a big pot, but we could be dead to a bigger draw and we'll surely be at least facing someone with redraw outs to a boat.

So only if the button calls do we really get a chance to go the turn with any kind of good implied odds. With the hero cold calling 2 bets in front of him this (aside from screaming a drawing hand) is going to drive a lot of weak/middling hands to fold and stronger hands to reraise for protection. I think the fact that the button did call the raise was a lucky break for the OP.

was it a lucky break, or a good read that he is extremely passive with strong hands unless they are pure nuts. I should have mentioned earlier that he thought before calling off his stack with AA preflop, saying "I dont like playing with tha tmuch money, I still need to think about it even with AA". The only hand he would 3 bet here is KK in the hole. ( he wouldnt have raised preflop with 88 or 44)