ahosang
Tuesday, April 24th, 2007, 5:12 PM
Sorry, but i can't let that post go unanswered, because it's riddled with mistakes and inconsistencies. Calling may be acceptable as a sort of optimal, edge-pushing play if we know why this might be so, but not for the reasons in the last post.
QUOTE (checkymcfold @ Tuesday, April 24th, 2007, 9:04 PM)

i missed that 4th checked around and that the pot was thus very small.
Very important to chase lows only when the pot's large enough.
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i still think i call here, since no aces are dead (and the weakness shown on previous streets implies that us hitting one is often good for high)
Um, seat 4 folded an Ace on 3rd, and now you're optimistically chasing 2 outs(or runner-runner) for high. In fact, with optimistic cards allotted to our opponents, we still have the worst chance of winning high...
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and we're about 75-80% to make our low after 5th.
Pure optimism. Even with all opponents holding high cards in the pocket, we're only 70% to hit low(to get as high as 75%, we have to assume high cards folded on 3rd too). With no assumption of their holdings, we're more like 55% to win low. With some low cards scattered in their pockets, we can be as low as 45% to win low. Increase the lows in others' pockets and we can drop to seriously low chances like 30%. And there's some times we'll hit low and lose that half.
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moreover, with our board, we can catch a lot of cards that give us some bluffing equity (though from the action it seems as though this table is extremely loose/passive, so maybe that's not right), which is just as good as scooping equity at showdown.
lol, make your mind up. With no clue as to the opponents' styles, playing a one-way hand is risky, and we probably need to hit. If we knew they were 'weak-tight experts', you could advocate raising as an 'expert play', but it's usually best to dump. Against loose-passives, we need strong hands. Whereas nits are probably folding here(thereby leaving us with not much of a 'very multiway' pot).
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also, this pot is pretty multiway--we know that 2 are in in front of us, and i can't imagine an 88 board is going to fold to 22 betting when one deuce is showing on someone else's board. that makes things 4 way, which means our low makes us a fair amount of money if we get there, and we do most of the time.
We don't make a fair amount at all. When we are rammed and jammed on 6th, we'll leak like crazy, and maybe lose back any profit we make on the times we hit and extract a measly 4BB(from 5th) as we did here. There's a lot of groping in the dark about what will happen, because we haven't been given any info on opponents.
Calling may not be a massive mistake due to the fact that low draw is possibly best, but hoping that seat 6 is betting with 1-pair, and that seat 7 is calling with a rubbish draw is optimistic.
I'd advise people to remember Todd Brunson's 'Platinum Rule':
PLAY TO SCOOP!!I've been a specialist at this game for quite a number of years and I agree with Brunson when he said that many will break even or lose even though they start very well, because they don't play to scoop. 7stud8 is a
scooping game.
Strong 1-way hands are playable with the right conditions, and it's not a given here.