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tskillz187
I got done playing a marathon session early yesterday morning. It was pretty horrible and I only have one real hand with any strategy bits in it.

Key Villains. MP is young kid, pretty cocky and for some reason is coming after me a lot. We have tangled a bunch but are not playing many pots so it's odd and I think he wants to bust me. I doubled through him once with JJ on a 10 high board, he didn't show his hand. Other than that he seems to be playing well.
SB is also youngish but he looks thuggy and generally plays 1-2nl He won a HUGE pot with 56ss earlier but his draw was not very live as the board was 7810 on the flop and it was 4 way heavy action, he got the spade draw on the turn and open shoved into the players and hit the miracle river spade to ship the pot. I don't think he is very good or sound overall.

Stacks: I have about $350 MP $400ish SB $1500ish

I am BB with J2dd

Flop 3d5s6d. (5 to the flop)

SB checks, I lead $15, one fold, MP thinks for a bit and raises to $45, one fold, SB C/R to $110 and it's back to me. I have a gutshot and the J high flush draw here.
simo_8ball
Fold IMO. I wouldn't expect all of your outs to be live.
tskillz187
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Sunday, April 15th, 2007, 6:43 PM) *
Fold IMO. I wouldn't expect all of your outs to be live.


I think a 4 has to be a live out. I just can't see someone holding a 7 in their hand, unless they are already made with 47, which just isn't very likely. I would say it is nearly impossible for MP to have limped 47, but SB could have it. I'd put SB's range on 24, 47, set, or overpair. If he had the dia draw I think he would just call and try to get there at this point. I think he's very happy with his big stack and doesn't want to spew any of it away, something I should have added in the first post.

For MP he could have the dia draw, but I might be bigger than it if he does, I think he would raise Axdd, KQdd, so he would have had to of limped Kx or Qx. K10dd or Q10dd being the most likely. But he could very well have a set, overpair, or something like 34,45,46suited, 78, 89 suited. I think his range is pretty big because he is just trying to isolate me (in my view) and take down the pot from me either now or on a later street.

Edit: I can see MP having a 7 if it is 78, so thats the exception of my gutshot not being live as well as SB flopping one of the straights. (Not very likely IMO)
dms26
QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Sunday, April 15th, 2007, 9:50 PM) *
I think a 4 has to be a live out. I just can't see someone holding a 7 in their hand, unless they are already made with 47, which just isn't very likely. I would say it is nearly impossible for MP to have limped 47, but SB could have it. I'd put SB's range on 24, 47, set, or overpair. If he had the dia draw I think he would just call and try to get there at this point. I think he's very happy with his big stack and doesn't want to spew any of it away, something I should have added in the first post.

For MP he could have the dia draw, but I might be bigger than it if he does, I think he would raise Axdd, KQdd, so he would have had to of limped Kx or Qx. K10dd or Q10dd being the most likely. But he could very well have a set, overpair, or something like 34,45,46suited, 78, 89 suited. I think his range is pretty big because he is just trying to isolate me (in my view) and take down the pot from me either now or on a later street.

Edit: I can see MP having a 7 if it is 78, so thats the exception of my gutshot not being live as well as SB flopping one of the straights. (Not very likely IMO)


I wouldn't worry about whether or not my gutshot draw is live, that's certainly not a good reason to play this pot.

With a limp preflop and a 3 bet on the flop I think it's very likely SB has a set or maybe even something like A4d, neither one is something you want to be up against. I agree with a fold here, flat calling costs 1/3 of your stack and I don't see you having much FE if you re-raise.
CobaltBlue
I hate folding "big" draws...but against a raise and re-raise, this one really shrinks up. We're not drawing to nuts/nuttish hands by any stretch. And heck, even if we get there (and are good), we still may not hold. Playing this hand to this action is just looking for an excuse to gamble.
Roberts2003
QUOTE (CobaltBlue @ Sunday, April 15th, 2007, 9:54 PM) *
I hate folding "big" draws...but against a raise and re-raise, this one really shrinks up. We're not drawing to nuts/nuttish hands by any stretch. And heck, even if we get there (and are good), we still may not hold. Playing this hand to this action is just looking for an excuse to gamble.



i feel like this is not a hard fold, SB put the 3rd raise in on the flop, so your folding equity of pushing a draw is 0%. your hoping to have 12 outs, but you could easily have much less, especially if SB has 78 or 47 and MP also has diamonds. i understand those times are rare, but i think main point is that your going to get called if you move in, so a fold is best play.
Acid_Knight
Pretty easy fold. You are being asked to call another $95 on the street and it won't even close the action. You have the idiot end of a gutshot and the 4th nut flush draw, which to me doesn't seem to be something to be that proud about.
tskillz187
So proud of the idiot end and the J high. Anyways, what if Effing SB flat calls the effing $45?

Edit: SB did flat call the $45 in the hand, but while at the casino I argued I still would have pushed even if he check/RR. But after some thought while there that seemed like a pretty poor play and you all agreed.
iowahawk09
I fold and wait for a better spot.
Acid_Knight
QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Monday, April 16th, 2007, 8:36 AM) *
So proud of the idiot end and the J high. Anyways, what if Effing SB flat calls the effing $45?

Edit: SB did flat call the $45 in the hand, but while at the casino I argued I still would have pushed even if he check/RR. But after some thought while there that seemed like a pretty poor play and you all agreed.

I'm even less excited about putting my money in if the SB flat calls.

Him raising makes it easier to fold from a strictly pot odds standpoint.
Him flat calling makes it easier to fold becuase it's more likely that our draw is worthless.
tskillz187
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, April 16th, 2007, 8:41 AM) *
I'm even less excited about putting my money in if the SB flat calls.

Him raising makes it easier to fold from a strictly pot odds standpoint.
Him flat calling makes it easier to fold becuase it's more likely that our draw is worthless.


I disagree, the flat call makes it more likely that he has a flush draw, but much less likely that he has a straight. He could also be holding a naked 4 here, which would be cool.
tskillz187
Meh, I raised it up to $225, MP thought FOREVER and then shoved in over the top, SB called his all in after making sure it also covered me and I called all in for like $125 more hoping something was live.

Edit: I was drawing dead to a running 4,7. MP had K7dd which practically had me dead on his own, with the higher gutshot and higher flush draw, and SB flopped the nuts with 47o. No one flipped their cards up until the end and the river came a 4 and silly me thought I might have won the hand.
Acid_Knight
QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Monday, April 16th, 2007, 8:43 AM) *
I disagree, the flat call makes it more likely that he has a flush draw, but much less likely that he has a straight. He could also be holding a naked 4 here, which would be cool.

That's what I said. The flat call makes it more likely that our draw is worthless.
Ganador
With only 20$ invested at this point, you def should of folded, the guy who went to 115 is not going to fold, and thug-life was a terrible player who would call with a higher diamond draw and have you crushed anyway. Nice hand man, nice hand.
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