No real read on villain, but I've seen him playing a fair amount lately and had him pegged as fairly solid and aggressive. Is it ridiculous of me to not raise him on the flop? In general the table was fairly tight, or at least the average bet was not pot-sized by a long shot. I really felt like he had a big pair, and then when the ace hit on the river I almost figured him for AA (but that would be too unlucky, no?), also figured he could likely have 99 here. Basically I sort of felt like his bet sizes wanted AQ to call him down and pay him off. Also thought he might have KK until he pushed the river. Am I being paranoid? Do I call the river (99% sure everybody groans and says yes I'm a doofus), and how would you play the flop and turn?


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $53.45
UTG+1: $45
MP1: $87.45
MP2: $11.25
MP3: $29.95
CO: $47.25
hero: $58.75
SB: $50.90
BB: $15.60

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is Button with A Q
UTG raises to $2.5, 4 folds, CO calls, hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: Q 9 4 ($8.25, 3 players)
UTG bets $6, CO folds, hero calls.

Turn: 2 ($20.25, 2 players)
UTG bets $14, hero calls.

River: A ($48.25, 2 players)
UTG is all-in $30.95,

Honestly, I don't hate folding preflop in this spot, unless you know him to raise lots UTG.

I was going to fold if the cutoff folded, but I'll take it 3-ways. Is that silly?

I can either fold or call preflop. I don't mind either.

Flop call is good. Raise would seem a little spewy.

I fold the turn. I don't really think you beat much, and you are normally going to face another big bet on the river.

I don't know if I can fold the river. I can't think how you are winning very often at all, but I probably call. Really looks like AA.

I don't mind it, I think you can do either. If he has a set so be it, He doesn't have a straight or a flush.

He could be bluffing busted diamonds...

AKd is certainly a possible holding.

AQo is one of my worst hands, but with a caller and position it can be playable.

Thanks for the responses so far....even though you guys are kind of skirting the issue (except simo). General consensus seems to be that the river is unfoldable? Actually like simo suggested, the point at which I most considered folding was the turn, but I felt like there was enough chance that I was ahead or chopping, or that I'd get his whole stack if another queen or ace hit. Of course, when the ace hit and he pushed I was no longer confident that I had improved to the best hand.

So having established that it's an ok call PF (but could be folded), how do you guys play each street?

I think folding the river is correct, but I would need to be 'in the zone' to do it. There is always the chance he has KK or Ad-Xd.

i make my money off people who wont fold AQ on Q high flops.


edit: wanted to add, if you're really confused about where you stand, raising the flop isn't that bad of an idea. he'll probably come over the top with KK/AA/a set and fold anything you're beating. it's as cheap as calling a bet on the turn and you're not giving any free cards in case you are ahead.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Like I said before, it smelled like he wanted AQ to pay him off. Having played myself into a corner, what's your take on the river? I'm getting nearly 3-1.

maybe because it is 9 handed and i dont play 9 handed, but all this folding talk is so damn nitty. The only time in this hand you should consider folding is on the turn, although calling is not bad either depending on the read of opponent. every other street is played fine, and i please hope that you called river.

top top is the nuts

You are getting about 2.5-1 on the call, so we need about 28-29%.

If we put villain on a range of { AcAd, KdKs, QcQs, 9c9s, AdKd, AcQc } , we have 41-42% equity. If we take away the kings, we have 30%.

So, it's pretty damn close. But I would lean towards folding, but it can't be a major leak to call either.

Yeah, it really looks like he's trying to suck you in here with a monster. I think the only time you could dump it though would be the turn. Against the range of hands that the villian would likely play like this (aa, kk, adkd, aq, 99) you're only ahead of one and chopping with one. If we think the villian is going crazy with kq, or even jj then it gets close, but against a tight villian i think you have to lay it down on the turn. On the river, like everyone else says, you are committed to a call with top two.

EDIT: oops, you're ahead of two of those hands. i'm retarded.

I probably would call preflop.
Calling the flop seems good.
The turn is the only questionable spot here.
On the river, with your pot odds, you have to call. He might turn over AKd or the same hand as you or even KK, but you gotta call on the river.

Just want to point out that I'm ahead of 2 there, KK and AKdd, and chopping AQ.

Results, fwiw, I called he had AQ, which I feel like he drastically overplayed. OOP with TPTK I wouldn't want to build such a big pot.

so am i alone in thinking raising this flop can be a good idea?

Yes.

You guys realize that AA/KK rarely raise 5x UTG online, right? I mean, it happens...certain villains do it...but it's somewhat rare. Usually raises like this are more vulnerable hands like AQ/JJ.

Pre-flop, when I originally started playing, I called too often here. Later, I began folding it a lot. Lately, I've gotten back to calling every now and then...cause I trust my post-flop ability. On the flop, flat call's usually fine. On the turn, it just depends on whether you think villain's firing another "bullet"...which he might be considering you've played this like a draw so far. So basically, I don't mind his turn bet or consider it overplaying. Additionally, if villain had AdKd, this hand plays pretty similarly.

I expect to see AdKd/AQ on this river pretty often, so I'd call. I'd mainly be worried about 99...with a slight chance of QQ/AA.