simo_8ball
Friday, April 13th, 2007, 8:46 AM
I just posted this in omaha but I feel it is equally relevant here (although it is written from the perspective of the made hand):
QUOTE
With a made hand you want to get a reasonable about in on the flop, with enough left over to either get away from it on a bad turn or make the incomplete draws pay the full amount on the turn. Here the pot is very small, so you want to build it up.
If the draws have very low implied odds, it can actually be correct for them to fold, even if they are a favourite on the flop.
If you allow the draw to see a very cheap turn card then pot odds alone dictates that the draw prefers this. Alternatively, if in raising you allow the draw to get a large % of their stack in, they can simply repot and claim all showdown equity they have in the pot.
A large draw wants to either get a small amount or a very large amount in on the flop if it has limited implied odds. By definition, the made hand wants to be able to make the draw pay a poor price on all remaining streets so wants a more middling amount in on the flop.
If you call the flop, you are only hitting about 1/3 of the time on the turn, and your draws are not well disguised. I am not sure you are getting paid too much if you hit, so your implied odds are low.
As it is, you have a chance to get a lot of money in on the flop where your equity is likely no lower than about 40%.