blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

The best play is posting this in the strat section.

oh snap

The best play is posting this in the strat section.

oh snap

Alright I am playing this guy heads up at 1 2 NL, heres the hand

Full Tilt Poker Game #2190156774: Table Long (heads up) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:24:30 ET - 2007/04/11
Seat 1: bulldawg ($156)
Seat 2: IHaveAStrong9 ($241.70)
IHaveAStrong9 posts the small blind of $1
bulldawg posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IHaveAStrong9 [5c 8s]
IHaveAStrong9 raises to $6
bulldawg calls $4
*** FLOP *** [6d 9s 7c]
bulldawg checks
IHaveAStrong9 bets $7
bulldawg calls $7
*** TURN *** [6d 9s 7c] [9c]
bulldawg checks
IHaveAStrong9 bets $15
bulldawg raises to $30
IHaveAStrong9 has 15 seconds left to act
IHaveAStrong9 raises to $94
bulldawg raises to $143, and is all in
IHaveAStrong9 calls $49
I am going to post the river and results later, heres the main question that I have that applies to more then this single hand. My read on this guy was that he had trip 9s and possibly a straight draw, so 98 or 910. I was at least 95% sure of this, because the flow of the match was that he would almost always check raise me on the flop with a set or two pair. And I did not think he was a good enough player to fastplay a boat on the turn. Alright, now heres the dilemna. Since I put him on 98 or 910, he has quite a large number of outs to either chop or fill up on the river. If the hand is 98, then he has 10 outs, and if its 910, he has 13 outs. So I am either a 4 to 1 favorite or a 3 to 1 favorite. Since I have position here, is the best play to get all in with 75% to 80% equity, or to wait until the river to make sure he doesnt fill up?? This kind of thinking is strictly variance reduction, and it applies in many hands other this hand.

This kind of thinking is strictly variance reduction, and it applies in many hands other this hand.

And from a strictly theoretical POV, it is incorrect thinking. You want to push your edges while you have them, reducing variance also reduces EV. If you are in a tourney situation or where you have only 1 buy-in and can't afford to go broke then it might make sense (although the cynic says: why are you playing out of your BR/comfort zone with only 1 buy-in?). That said A) I think 95% is too high a confidence rate for a specific hand in most situations and you're opening yourself up to be bluffed off the pot when a scary river hits.

And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.

bulldawg shows [9h Td]
IHaveAStrong9 shows [5c 8s]
IHaveAStrong9: HOLD
*** RIVER *** [6d 9s 7c 9c] [7d]
bulldawg shows a full house, Nines full of Sevens
IHaveAStrong9 shows a straight, Nine high
bulldawg wins the pot ($311.50) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
IHaveAStrong9 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $312 | Rake $0.50
Board: [6d 9s 7c 9c 7d]
Seat 1: bulldawg (big blind) showed [9h Td] and won ($311.50) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Seat 2: IHaveAStrong9 (small blind) showed [5c 8s] and lost with a straight, Nine high
Alright there are the results. I know its easy to say that i put him on trips after i see his hand, but I really did feel that, and im still conflicted on whether or not the best play is to call or raise. To whoever said they arnt confident about having a sucker straight there.....you must not play any heads up ever. I flopped the 2nd nuts and its heads up. Theres not too much to be worried about. And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.

Wait, since when is saying converting your hands retarded?

Oh and btw, you lost, don't criticize us.. You're the one who makes a dumb *** bet on the turn with a paired board.. nice play there..

^^^

I think this is the kind of reply he is talking about.

Please post constructive comments, or don't post.

Thanks.

- Zach

Lol, a truthful comment are the kind he is talking about?

And it was constructive, I was critiquing his play..

Alright there are the results. I know its easy to say that i put him on trips after i see his hand, but I really did feel that, and im still conflicted on whether or not the best play is to call or raise. To whoever said they arnt confident about having a sucker straight there.....you must not play any heads up ever. I flopped the 2nd nuts and its heads up. Theres not too much to be worried about. And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.