Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 9 9
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 4 A 6 (16SB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB folds, UTG bets, Hero folds...


UTG is the same villain from the QQ hand... 76/11/1.85 after 70 hands...

This is the 3rd time he's LRR'd my pf raises. First one I had A9 and didn't get to showdown, the 2nd one I had AK, and capped pre, bet/called flop and called down and won UI vs his ATo... That's why I capped pf. I figured to be way ahead of this guy, and wanted to maybe fold out one behind me, or two...

The flop is gay, and the the donk leads... One guy open farrelled before him, so I only have one to worry about behind me... what's the plan here... 17-1 on the flop call...

Open farrelling in a 16 BB pot lol. Id probably fold with the guy behind us. What kind of hands, if any, was this guy open raising with? Any idea what he donks with? From the Ak ui hand we know that his c/r can be weak and that if he is bluffing hell probably bet all streets so getting 4-1 on the calldown its close but id fold.

I'd fold. 9h I'd call.

First of all, calling the flop is not an option.
Because even if we are ahead, there are 16 more overcards to dodge on 2 streets, against possibly 2 opponents.
I wouldn't mind spending the 2.5bb to find out if we are ahead.
But I would want to find a way to decrease the chances of being drawn out on before I was comfortable making this investment.

The limp-3bet line can often be read as strength.
But against this particular Villain, I think we have seen that this is not necessarily the case.

This pot is huge.
And Villain is known to be kooky.
And I think there is a solid chance we are ahead here.
So I don't want to fold.
And I never do.

I always RAISE this flop.

Odds of Being Outdrawn:
After a raise, the odds of being sucked out on drop significantly.
We likely will knock out the SB. So this cuts the chances in half.
And if UTG was playing anything from KQ to JT, he is going to have a very difficult time calling us.
And with the pot this big, we are very happy to knock out his overs and win the hand quickly.

In contrast, if he is indeed bluffing with one of these hands, and we only called the flop...
he wouldn't be thinking he was ahead, or even that he had a shot to draw out on us,
but he would likely continue to bluff,
and would consequently be seeing future streets,
and could "accidentally" bump into one of his overcards and beat us.
So we need to put enough pressure on him to make sure this never happens.


Cost of Raising:
The majority of time, raising the flop makes it cheaper to find out if we are ahead.
Because if Villain has KK, even if he insists on calling down, he will be forced to turn passive.
And thus we can take some free cards and see showdown cheaper.
And even if Villain has an Ace, he will likely have to slow down since he is out of position against an opopnent who has raised him 3 times.




So the next question is, what do we do if Villain 3bets us on the flop?
Well, if we think a 3bet always means the Ace, then obviously we need to fold.

But Villain is Loose.
And our raise could easily be seen as a bluff.
So I can see a LAG 3betting the flop without the Ace.
So my standard play as actually to CAP the flop too!

I know this play surely seems like a LAG-spew.
But against this type of player, I believe that it works well for me.
Believe it or not, villains fold to this cap quite often!
And I believe they even fold KK-TT here sometimes (if they were foolish enough to 3bet the flop with it in the first place).
And the chance of this happening could make this play enormously profitable.

Even if he calls the cap, I then spend only 1 more bet to find out the verdict.
I bet the turn and take the free showdown.
And if Villain donks the turn again or check raises me, then I can confidently fold with the same information that showdown would have provided me. (That I was well behind).

And in this absolute-worst-case-scenario, it only cost me 0.5bb more than just calling down.
But since it greatly increased the chances of winning the pot, I think it was well worth the tiny extra investment.


Conclusion:
Our goal is to find out if we are ahead while reducing the odds of being drawn out on.
I feel that playing the flop aggressively is the single best way of accomplishing this.


--CM