if it hasn't been answered - why the flat call on the turn with the set of sevens and the not so dangerous board against brian townshends semi-bluff?

glad you posted this question.........I was hoping to hear his thoughts on this as well.

Think of the amount of hands that he has played in his lifetime. Honestly, a decision on one hand that may seem questionable to you, it really doesn't matter in the long run. I didn't even see the hand, but obviously he was trying to get more money in the pot with a big hand. Even if the board is dangerous, sometimes people like to make sure they are going to win the hand by seeing the river card before they make a raise. On high stakes, most players aren't going to get off big draws, so why bother to raise and get more cash in when you are most likely going to run it twice and split the pot anyway. Daniel's small ball technique is one that gets money little bits at a time, and he has been one of the top players in the world because of it. Much like not investing much money preflop, he doesn't invest as much money on a dangerous board before he sees what comes.

no the board wasn't dangerous

plus he flat called 53k

Interestion question:

Up until that point I'd played precisely zero hands against him and he had been playing conservatively thus far in the session. For him to check-raise the turn, he could have easily had 99 or KK, or hopefully, and much less likely, AK.

If I go all in on the turn there and he calls, I'll likely have one out in the deck. Not sure if you watched any of the previous seasons, but it's not impossible to think that I could flop the nuts only to get tortured on the turn.

Also, by playing it the way I did I have him the maximum opportunity to try and steal the pot on the river with a big bluff which I'd likely be forced to call.

If the board wasn't dangerous how could it be a semi-bluff? That must mean that Townsend had some outs?

I was actually expecting you to say something like "normally i'm all in here but its high stakes poker on gsn so I fold "

You didn't flop the nuts in this hand.
And if he does have the higher set - can you really get away from the hand, or should you even?

I think it is pretty safe to say that if he has the higher set Daniel should get away from the hand. Whether or not he can is another question, but there is definitely no time when you should be calling when you are beat on the river... maybe if you are trying to show people that you are going to call everything down and not to bluff you, but that certainly isn't the case in this situation.

Yeah, obviously I meant, if DN could ever be certain enough that sbrugby has him beat to make a laydown correct considering a player who is that successful in high stakes online NLHE cash games isn't scared of making huge moves with marginal hands and air. [there is a strong straight possibility on the river too though]

the hand was:

Townsend: has DN covered (I think)
Negreanu: ~200K

hole cards:
Townsend: 8 6
Negreanu: 7 7

Preflop:
x folds, Townsend raises to 2400, Negreanu calls, x folds

Flop: (Pot: 5700) 7 9 3
Townsend bets 4500, Negreanu raises to 14.500, Townsend calls

Turn: (Pot: 34.500) K
Townsend checks, Negreanu bets 18.000, Townsend raises to 53.000, Negreanu calls

River: (Pot: 141.400) J

Final Board: 7 9 3 K J

If instead of: Townsend checks, Negreanu bets 60.000, Townsend folds
hypothetically: Townsend checks, Negreanu bets 60.000, Townsend raises to 150.000, Negreanu ? (with ~70K or so left)
or: Townsend bets 100.000, Negreanu ? (with ~30K or so left after he calls)

[please don't nail me down to the numbers, I just did that quickly and I don't exactly know how much money they had in front of them anyway]

if he check-raised me on the river in that situation it would have been close to an impossible call. I couldn't beat anything once that Jack hit if he raised me.

You said that you didn't have a read on him. But you must have put him on a hand. What were you thinking after the turn?

Facinating topic BTW.

On the river though, Townsed sent a pretty clear message about his hand by the way he checked. It's like he was angry/confused about that flat call on the turn and you could see DN picked up on it. I think DN was positive he wasn't getting check-raised on the river....hence the bet.

Also I think it was what Gabe said...the 18k on the turn is a bet that's almost asking to be raised. If he bet the pot or close to it, I don't think Townsend would've raised...possible but I think he folds that.

Hmmm....Smooth call, eh?....


I wonder what Phil Gordon would say?

I personally think the way you played was the best way. considering your reputation, I think you played it pretty close to how you would have played a variety of hands. That's why I like it so much. you put all of the thinking in Brian's court. Your hand range is very wide there. say a J10d, 108d, or even 1010, 88, etc.

So, in setting up possible future sessions, I think this was a brilliant play.

When Daniel bet the river, Townsend folded, and Daniel scooped the pot, Townsend's expression said it all:

He would have put both players on exactly what they were holding, told them so, and continued to give his unwanted opinion for the duration of the session...

I wonder what Daniel would have done if Brian just smoothcalled the turn and big bluffed the river, trying to represent 810.

I think that he would have called, as usual.

That's not an insult, but I think that he would have called suspecting a better hand, but realizing that a bluff was the probable play.

Prob right Danniel is a payoff wizard.

"You just called? That's cool... anywaaaaay, can one of you guys stake me 100 to play?...... Please?"