Who in their right mind would make that wager. With so many opportunities for bracelets, and 18 pages of stats for both players combined (on cardplayer.com), I think either bet would be suicide. I believe that both Hellmuth and Negreanu will both bracelet in 2007. They also have 9 2nd place WSOP finishes combined. I wouldn't bet it even for 5 bucks ( well, maybe for fun, but I would still be cheering them on). I know a lot will break down the math to calculate if the bet will be profitable or not like Daniel did, but with so many bracelet opportunties offered, combined with a solid resume, look out!! No one will make that wager for 100K, unless they are looking just to piss away some cash.

You'd be surprised. Over at 2+2 several people think it's a good bet to bet against me at 5-1. I honestly feel like it's much closer to 3-1 but would be happy to take 5-1.

Daniel, regarding which WSOP you won't be playing, what about the rebuys?

I remember your card last year looked like it hit an artery (red stamped to death, lol).




Edit: Ummm .. D U H me. I just re-read your blog and you clearly listed all the events you won't be playing (i.e. no double event days). Good luck getting that bracelet. Law of averages alone dictate you adding another one this year.

Man this years WSOP has a awesome and crappy schedule at the same time. I think it's awesome that they have all these big buy in tournaments in all the different kinds of poker, but I think it sucks that they have so many tourneys. What's winning a bracelet worth? The worst ones were the small NL Hold'em tournies they had last year DURING the main event, what the heck was that about?
I think they should have one tourney in each game, and maybe fill out with a few other with lower buy ins. Not have 25 NL Hold'em $1500 tournies like last year...

I look in my crystal ball and see two bracelets for Daniel this year.

I think what many people forget is that the WSOP is a business run by Harrah's. They are offering what the people want. They'd probably be happy running nothing but $1K and $1500 events that 1400 people could enter becuase they'd make a very good profit doing that. I think that one of the main reasons that they do have the HORSE event and other mixed and non-holdem events is becuase the professional players mandate that they have them. The WSOP would not be what it is without the professional representatives of the game, so they do the right thing by making them happy and offering a variety of events. From a dollars and cents standpoint, I would guess that Harrah's would rather run the large field events with smaller buyins becuase they attract a larger volume of customers to the hotel.

As for DN's bet, I think that it would easily show a long term profit becuase, as he stated in his blog, the shear volume of events provides so many opportunities to win a bracelet. I think that at 5-1, it would definitely be worth placing a bet because even over that many hands and 35 tournies, luck is still a large factor and as good a player as DN is, he still needs to have a number of things go his way in any given tournament to do well. I wouldn't be surprised if you got quite a few offers at the 5-1 odds you're giving.

DN- Do you think that any bets placed against you will serve as a good motivator or do will you see them more as a smart gamble from someone who believes that they're getting a decent price for their money?

DN, I am glad to see on your schedule that you are playing the $5000 heads up event. I scheduled my vacation that week.
I was pretty sure you'd be in it. I cant wait for that event. GL in all the events. I am SURE you will get a bracelet this year.
EFF Dutch Boyd !!! (jk)

if i had money i would take the Hellmuth aginst daniel bet, first of all Hellmuth will play alot more events, that alone will give him much better chance. also i think Hellmuth is a little more motivated to win a braclet, he can bring his "a" game to a 1500$ event much more then daniel, and i think aginst really bad players (like in the wsop) he has a bigger edge (even though i think daniel is better overall).
regarding the other bet - even at 3-1 i wouldnt take the bet aginst daniel winning a bracelet.

Bet or not I hope Daniel wins at least one, and I hope Phil wins at least one.

Good for the game

so is there where i initiate the bet or is that done some other way i don't have 100K but would gladly take the one about you not getting a braclet this year for 1000

Don't take any bets with people over the internet. Not that you don't know what your doing and haven't learned from getting stiffed in the past(speculation on my part but it happens to all of us.)

Even if you get action and can have the funds held by a 3rd party, the person your making the online wager with could be doing something with the DOJ that you don't want to get involved with. Naturally making a bet with another player or gambler you know is totally different.


I'd take the 5-1 against in a heartbeat due to the nature of MTT's. However, I'd like to see you win multiple bracelets and I try not to bet against a person/team I'm rooting for.

it seems like he has fun during the rebuys, he might play

I believe Daniel posted the wrong odds. He seems to be offering 1 to 5 odds not 5 to 1, and I would bet on Daniel also.

Don't believe I'd take same on Hellmuth.

As much as I hope to see you get the bracelet Bomba Clot, your 5 to my 1 is pretty good. Maybe too good for me to pass up. What's the deadline on having the wager made?

I want to take the bet.

How do we contact DN?

I tried on 2+2 but was unsuccessful.

Why are so many of you having trouble with reading comprehension? lol. I said I'd TAKE 5-1 not lay it... sheesh!

LOL I seen it on 2+2. Had to pick on you a bit, I couldn't help myself. Believe me, if you were giving 5 to 1, I'd catch a flight to Vegas so we could shake hands on it. Doh! I forgot, I mean get a pound in on it. LOL

Daniel,

Please PM me here so I can take your wager.