dms26
Friday, March 23rd, 2007, 5:11 AM
QUOTE (Smank @ Friday, March 23rd, 2007, 1:51 AM)

Against most villians at these stakes a turn check here is very -EV as they tend to call too much and bet too little. If villian is a maniac though and you're positive he'll bet into you if you show any weakness then nh. The main problem is that if the villian DOES have a 7 (which seems possible by the description you gave of him) he's often going to get more of our money as we aren't getting any information knowing he's going to bet the turn.
If he has a 7 he's getting all my money whether I check or bet because there is no way I can fold to this guy after watching him play the last few orbits. He was playing tourney poker, double up or go home.
QUOTE (Sefaje @ Friday, March 23rd, 2007, 7:00 AM)

This play relies 100% on him betting the turn. There's a few hands where he's drawing to 8 outs (QJ,89,J9). Could he have a draw here? We're not wanting to give a free card. If you're verrry sure he's not drawing and will bet, then a c/r is fine. But if there's much of a chance he's either drawing or won't bet JT/KQ/junk like that, then a check here is bad.
My problem was he hadn't gone to showdown much, he was getting folds other than the hand where he had TT and sucked out. So I suppose he could have really anything but I thought even if he had a draw I might get him to fire if I check.