Villian is nitty. I should have led the turn to build a bigger pot but o well. Now that I didnt, whats your river play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($1357)
MP ($1164)
Button ($1509.70)
SB ($1068)
BB ($1053)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T, A.
Hero raises to $40, 1 fold, Button calls $40, SB raises to $100, 1 fold, Hero calls $60, Button calls $60.

Flop: ($310) 6, 4, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $210, SB folds, Hero calls $210.

Turn: ($730) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($730) 4 (2 players)
Hero ? (1100 each)

I'm guessing you're still good here, because villain would have fired out on the turn if he had a set (most likely). I'd make a value bet here, nothing so weak as to merit a raise from villain even if he has nothing.

But yes, that is one fugly river.

Here's how I look at this.

On the river, if I check, villain will not put me on a good flush. If villain has a decent flush that he thinks will win(9 or T high), then he will check. If he has a flush that he thinks is worth betting like the Q or K, he will value bet. If he doesn't have a heart, he may fear that I do and will bluff at the pot. If he has a full house, he'll certainly be value betting.

The only reason that checking is bad is if he had a medium-high flush that he would have called a bet with. Any other hand and we are minimizing losses/maximizing gains by checking the river and calling whatever bet the villain makes.

agreed, I check and hope he bets. Even if he is nitty he may try to take a stab at a scare card on the river. If you bet there just isn't much he can have to pay you off. Obviously he will pay if he has the Qh or Kh, but he may also bet if we check to him.

I think a nit might check a lot more often than you average opponent, I think you are good here, I would bet out 400ish and hope to get a call from K of heats.

And if he pushes? Out bet would look kind of fishy anyway. I don't want to encourage him to make a move at me becuase he thinks I might not have a hand.

does a nit push without a full house here? or a K-high flush. I mean I understand you are probably right but why?

I'm just saying, the only hands that you're really gonna lose any value from are like the 9 and Q high flushes, IMO. I'd rather see my showdown for $400, win or lose, than bet $400 and have to fold to his push.

I wouldn't mind being in your position. Really. Long story short, I think that if your villain has a boat (I really can't see that from the action, though), he's going to value bet -- ie: a cheap, callable bet. While it may sting, it won't be a death knell to you. If he has a baby flush, I actually think he's pushing hard, because he's got to make that marginal preflop holding that he called a preflop raise with (Khxh .. or worse) pay off big, or he simply can't justify gambling with them. If he has nothing, he may be pushing hard to steal. So I think I send a few chips in, see what villain does, and then call anything here -- all in, value bet, whatever. I think if you lose here, I'd be really suprised -- because of the $210 into a $300+ pot, I just don't see the villain having hit a set.

Hmm. I'd be LESS surprised to see quads than a boat.

You say worst river in the deck, I say one of the best, if we're ahead.

I doubt that the villain will call a good value bet on the river with less than a Qh. Only AxQh reraises preflop and then c-bets. So, our decision is that much easier.

I don't like betting if we know our villain is straightforward/nitty, because unless he has exactly AxQh, he will not call or raise with a hand we can beat. We want him to take a stab (although he may be nitty), so let's give him the chance too, and also give ourselves the chance not to bust by encouraging him to make a value-bet against us (vs. a push) becuase we've shown no real strength. ALSO, I see the board pairing giving him less encouragment to push with a hand we can beat, putting us to the test less often.



If it goes check/check and we were ahead, it's reallly ok. The only thing we would've accomplished is not having to show down our hand.