rdtedm
Wednesday, March 21st, 2007, 9:09 AM
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Wednesday, March 21st, 2007, 10:50 AM)

Yeah, the pot may be getting to be a decent size, but that doesn't matter. What matters is that the hero likely has the best hand and the villain often has a hand that he will pay off another bet with. To fail to make that bet is a pretty big error.
I don't think the villain is trapping here. If he had 5x of spades or A5 then I think he'd lead the river again.
Honestly, the only hand I'm really worried about here is A4. You're repping AQ pretty strongly here and if the villain had A4 and stuck around hoping to hit his gutter, he might still be worried that his aces up are no good.
I think a value bet of about $300 will show a very good profit in the long run becuase the villain will likely call with any ace, and it appears that he's holding a hand like AT or AJ.
I agree that he probably ahead. But as with any 2 pair, a large raise in front of you might mean a difficult decision.
Villain probably didn't flop top two, because of the size of his weak flop/turn bets. He probably has a weak ace and is try to see it as cheaply as possible. This puts his range, like you said, at a hand like A4 - or even hands like A-5 or A-6.
This means villain could be throwing out protective bets since he has the lead, and calling raises like he did on the turn. When the 4 hits, A-3 suddenly isn't looking as pretty as it did. Say hero value bets $300 and then villain pushes for his last ~$400 more. Hero has to make a crying call with a terrible board (at the river), or make a fold and throw almost $600 away.
Checking here guarantees that if we have the best hand we take the pot, without having to make tough decisions.
If we get lucky, villain calls with the worse hand.
Just how I see it.