Villain is 37.98/24.32/2.7

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with J A
UTG folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

Flop: 6 3 K (6.6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Turn: 5 (6.3BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: J (6.3BB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero ?

I'm tempted to raise but if he 3bets, can you really fold?

This river is really interesting because of the play leading up to it.

The flop 3-bet is strong, on your end. However, the turn left us a bit clueless. Was he trying to c/r with a strong hand? And now is he just betting out the river with his strong hand, or is he now just betting the river due to your weakness?

He certainly doesn't need to have a K here, even to call a raise...

What was the purpose of your flop 3-bet? To get to SD as cheaply as possible? I doubt you were ahead there. Seems like he paired up, prolly 2nd or 3rd pair.

If you wanted to get to SD cheaply all along, I wouldn't be opposed to a call on the end here. A raise probably has reaaaaally thin value if it does. He's not calling with air, although sometimes he will with ace-high, and definitely with 2nd pair, usually, right? Especially after our weird flop/turn line...

It's close, I'd say. I tend to call in these spots because I hate the idea of getting 3-bet... doesn't mean it's right though.

I don't think it's close.
This is definitely a call, imo.

Villain check-raised the PFR.
This should mean at least Top Pair, or a bluff.

Villain then leads the river.
Once again, this should mean either at least Top Pair, or a total bluff.
Making this bet with a mediocre hand (TT) seems foolish.

If this logic is true, then you gain nothing by raising the river.
Because the only hands that are going to call you should be ahead of you.
Thus calling this river with your 2nd pair seems to be clearly the best play.

A river raise only makes an ounce of sense if Villain:
- played the flop foolishly
- played the river foolishly
- AND is foolish enough to call your river raise with less than 2nd pair.

That combo just won't happen enough to warrant the risk of the raise.

--CM

CM, the only thing I disagree with in your analysis is that the villain will only raise the flop with TP or a bluff. Most of the aggro villains I play will raise the flop with any pair, especially in a blind battle.

I agree that we see a wide range of raises in blind battles.
And if I'm in the small blind, I expect big blind to raise my flop bet with potentially anything.
Because he has position on me.

But when I have position, I don't expect to see a check-raise from an out-of-position villain very often without strength.

That's just my observation.

--cm

how else would they defend their hand? donkbet/call?