Hand 1:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $61.95
CO: $50
Button: $48.75
SB: $149.95
Hero: $68.05

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 3 3
UTG raises to $1.75, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: Q 7 4 ($7.25, 4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: 3 ($7.25, 4 players)
Hero bets $2.5, UTG raises to $10, 2 folds, Hero........???

Villian has Super nitty stats....something like 10/3/inf. over 90+ hands.

80/20 says this is AA or KK.

I dunno the only thing a nit checks on the flop and then raises on the turn is a set....

Can I go out on a limb here and say he slow played pocket queens? or 7's?

This may be a dumb question, but would a nit ever play jj like this? Check the flop with the overcard and then raise a small card to see where he's at? or what about a k ? maybe it wouldn't be nit-ish to raise with overs and a draw here though. i don't know. I don't think a nit would play aa/kk like this. Would a nit would they raise 77 UTG short handed? I really think this is a set of queens or its some weird hand that is out of their character that we've seen so far.

If he's really that nitty, then go ahead and call him down. After all, he's gonna do the betting for you.

He was waiting maybe to see if the HERO hit a set on the flop. Nitty is nitty.

My other point is ... if you're going to call a 3/5 BB bet with 33, you may as well bet this flop. Hitting your set on an uncoordinated board is no time to wimp out.

You are suggesting that he lead the flop into the nit?

I agree with this. I'm not laying down a set here, but it seems less likely that he has a hand we beat. The nit thinks he has the best hand, so let him bet.

Well, he is unwilling to follow.

His postflop aggression is extremely strong though - if it's infinity then he does a shitload of raising and betting. When he is in a hand expect him to pound you. He may be nitty but postflop he's raising with a lot of holdings - I'd be far more concerned if he was 20/15/0.60 and raising us than his current stats.

However, I cannot see such an aggressive player checking this flop with an overpair. QQ is a legitimate threat. It looks like he's either got a monster or he's detected some weakness in our bet. Obviously we are not folding a set here so I call and proceed cautiously to the river.

his post flop AF is more due to a small sample and probably everyone folding when he did show any agression.

88 hands isn't bad, and whatever his true value is, it's ****ing high. Do you think such an aggressive player CHECKS AA on this flop? No, I don't either. I'd be completely shocked if he showed down an overpair.

I guess just calling would probably be best, he's not raising with a flush draw. You're missing some value if he does have AA,KK or AQ, but he's going to bet the river too.

Check/call the river

Well, i decided to take the line most of you reccomend and just called him down.

I called his rather large river bet, and he turned over the T 6 for a rivered flush.


Yay for stats not meaning jack ****!!!!

yikes. so much for being a nit

I was right; you were way ahead at the turn.

People ... a set is powerful medicine.
I don't mind mixing it up with a set.
A turn re-raise here might get him off his hand.

On the other hand, villain might have just chosen this hand as the one he was riding to the river. Nothing you can do about that.