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Full Version: $5 90-man Sng Close To The Money
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > Tournament Play
YBravo
So I don't have the exact hand history because I just switched computers, but here are the basics of the hand.
25 players left, 18 cash.

Blinds: 200/400/50 9 players

Hero's stack: about 9k

PRE FLOP
UTG+1 limps (plays a lot of hands, but bets them decently after the flop, been giving me problems), Hero limps (Ks Js), MP player calls (no read), SB completes, BB checks.

FLOP As Qs 7d
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets 400, Hero calls, MP player goes all in for about 7500 total, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds,

Hero?????

Comments on my flop play would be appreciated as well.
mk
simple math problem.

we'll give villain credit for having at least an ace, meaning you have 12 outs twice to improve, or about 45% equity.

you have to call 7100 and the pot is 10,750 after mp goes all in, so you're getting about 1.5:1 and only need about 40% equity to call.

since you have at least 45%, call.
linkwood
yeah, worst case scenario is he has a set, with one card that is a spade (7s7h) and even then you're only a 2-1 dog. you're not getting the right price but thats only if he has a set. two pair hands you're 60-40 against, and if he has a pair and fd (7s8s), which i would say is the most likely hand the villian would play this way, at these stakes, then you're actually a slight favorite. i think you have to call with such a big draw.
rog
Hmmm...I'm not so sure. Let's assume you do have 45% equity, and you only need 40%. That's a 5% edge right? That's a +CEV call for sure, but it's a fairly small edge to bet your tournament life against. If you are better than your opponents, I think you can outperform that by folding and playing aggressively later.

The main reason I think this is that the average stack should be somewhere around 5500 right now. That means you have an M of about 9 right now, and the average stack is somewhere around 6. There should be plenty of stacks in the under 5 range getting desperate. You're going to see a lot of bustouts very very soon. I don't think calling is wrong. If I had a bunch of donks on my left, I would fold here and steal my way deep in this. If I have any/many tough players near me, I call and bet my tournament life on a 5% edge.
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