I just got to this table a few minutes before so i have no read on him. I think hes the chip leader at the time and im between 3-5th really close to the bubble. What do you do here?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t500/t1000
(Ante: t125)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t32419
UTG+1: t23152
Hero: t45685
MP2: t42936
CO: t33132
Button: t12728
SB: t32241
BB: t53859

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with K Q
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t1000 (pot was t2500), Hero raises to t4000, 3 folds, SB calls t3500 (pot was t7500), BB calls t3000 (pot was t11000), UTG+1 calls t3000 (pot was t14000).

Flop: T 5 K (t17000, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets t17000, UTG+1 folds, [color=#cc0000]

Hero.....?

I really don't like raising an EP limpers with KQo in MP, especially with no read on the villain. As played, I prob fold to the bet because we have a pretty good stack relative to the blinds and I don't feel like risking my whole stack with TP2K. We also have no read as to what the stop-n-go by the villain means.

I typed a whole bunch of bunk and then erased but I agree with previous post. I do not like the raise to early limp. When you keep four in the hand, your hand should now be considered a drawing hand. You did not hit a strong draw so I say fold with a player in back of you. Head's up I may call to see if villain slows down or you pop a redraw but this is for a third of your stack.

4000 lost I think is a lot better than losing your stack on top pair high kicker. I say fold>push>call. In multi pot I think calling is foolish if it doesn't close betting and you do not have enough trips to raise without pushing.


You have better places to stick your chips in and without a good read, why risk your tourney this close to bubble on a guess.

What hand ranges would you put villian on?

Just for arguments sake what range of hands will villian call a shove with? I know its difficult to say because we dont have a sufficient read, but guesstimate anyways

I'd put him on a better hand than yours. I'd also put him on a gigantic calling range, hes certainly not folding any hand that has you beat, he's put almost half his stack in the middle. Either raise way more PF or fold.

That pot-sized bet just screams flush draw to me. I think most players would have reraised PF with AA, KK, AK, no? If so, that tells me he called PF with a diamond connectors (he got solid odds to do so) or perhaps with TT or 55. If he did play TT or 55, I think you would have seen a smaller bet on the flop; I think the pot-sized bet indicates a flush draw.

He has less than a third of his chips in the pot

Here is what i was thinking at the time of the hand. AA, KK are very very unlikely. Anybody who has any idea what they are doing isnt going to take a 4 way flop out of position with either of those hands without sticking in a reraise. AK, could play their hand this way but its also not likely, hes the chip leader with AK, why wouldnt he reraise? Hands like KQ, KJ, K9, AT or some flush draw could play it like this, trying to figure out "where they are at". I gave less credit to a hand like two pair or a set because most players arent going to lead out into a preflop raiser for a pot sized bet with that big a hand, a check raise is much more likely. He cant have OESFD cause i have the Q . He could have A J which would put me in a coin flip. Anyone disagree with this logic?

I agree, though I wouldn't necessarily rule out a smaller flush draw. By the time the action came around to him in the BB, he was getting almost 4-1 odds to call the raise. He could have called with AXd or even took a stab with J9d, depending on the type of player he is.

Who leads almost 1/3 of their stack into the pf raiser with a FD? Maybe you guys know something I don't, but that makes absolutely no sense.

Stack sizes: BB: t53859

Pre flop : BB calls t3000 + 125 ante. = 3125.

Flop: 17000. = 20125 total.

20125/53859 = 37% chips in pot.

He can fold almost nothing. The only way he can fold is if he led out into 3 players in a raised pot with nothing. I find it more likely that if he had a draw he would C/R all in here, unless he has the JQdd and wants to race for a double. Otherwise he likely has a set or two pair.

I don't much like the PF raise here either. If I were going to raise, I would make it 5500 (pot) or more to account for the antes. Your raise gives really good odds to BB, and once anyone calls, nobody can really fold. Hence the 4 way flop. You may be best right now, but KT could play it this way. You could be dodging a lot of outs, especially if SB calls after you. I think you will likely find better spots to play.

Of course he can fold. There are alot of hands he can fold under these circumstances. He has 34x the bb if he folds which is still a ton of chips at this stage of the tournament. He could fold AT, KJ, K9, a small flush draw. He isnt down to his last 7 big blinds if he folds or something like that, he doesnt HAVE to stack off with anything hes betting.

I will concede that raising KQo after an utg limper wasnt an optimal play. I like to loosen up at this stage of the tournament to take advantage of the natural tendancy to tighten up around the bubble.

I guess it depends on the quality of player. Many players in the low buy-ins like to play draws aggressively (incorrect as it may be). Though I admit the KT 2-pair may be more likely. I still think he would have led with a smaller bet with a set - most low buy-in players love to slowplay/trap with sets.

If this player doesn't suck you have 0 fold equity. End of story. He's not risking 37% of his stack OOP on the bubble when he was fine to make the money. Always assume your opponent is competent until proven otherwise.

If you want to gamble on what is likely a coinflip, shove.

If you want to play conservative, make the money, and then get the money in, fold.

I see this as a big draw about 90% of the time.

What would he play like this that has us beat?

AA/KK- no chance
AK- small chance he'd make this play, but he likely would wait for a c/r opportunity because someone would likely fire at this pot.
TT- small chance, likely would reraise pf.
55/KT- makes sense, smaller flop bet likely, but this still fits in his range.
K5- doubtful
Axd, J9d, J8d, 54d, 56d, 57d, 76d, 87d, 98d, 97d, 86d, QJ- These hands would likely make this play. They want to take the pot right here. However, I think he subconsciously wants to pot commit himself so he can get the money in and gamble for a giant stack.

I just think the range is so far weighted toward drawing hands that if you want to get in a flip, then push and gamble.

I agree with you.

I just ran some numbers on pokerstove with a what I would consider a tight range of hands that he could possibly have. I gave him:

AKs, AKo, ATs, ATo, KQs, KQo, KJs, KJo, KTs, KTo, TT, 55, QJs, QJo, AdJd-Ad5d

against that range I have 53.86% equity. I think his range is quite possibly wider than this. Even with just this range I think I have some fold equity against some hands in that range. For instance, lets assume he has KQ... the exact hand i have. If im in his position and i bet that flop and my opponent shoves over the top of me, with our stacks i fold almost every single time and dont think twice about it.

I made a similar point in another thread about sizing raises to account for antes, and everyone there seemed to disagree. Huh.

You always need to take antes into account, because your raises should be used to control the pot odds your opponents are getting. You're right, don't worry.

Well if you are going raise in a limped pot with KQo (this is a bad play almost every time though), you want to discourage action so raising it up 6 times the bb is the way you want to go. You want to raise enough to make your opponents fold. However, when you are going for a blind steal I still only raise 3 times the big blind regardless of the antes. Most tight players will fold to this raise anyway and it makes for a very cheap steal.