Live 6 handed $200 STT at mate's house, down to last 3. Payouts are $400/$800.

Stack Sizes:
Hero $9,950
SB $21,850
BB $28,150

Blinds:
SB posts $800
BB posts $1600

Dealt to hero A T

Hero raises to $9000
SB moves allin
BB overshoves allin
Hero calls getting 30-1 pot odds?



Play had been fairly tight. I would put SB's range at about KJ+, A6+, 55+. BB's range is consideraby tighter. He would only realistically reshove over the SB with hands that have me in trouble. He is likely to be way ahead of SB.

I had 950 in odd change and 9k in $1k chips so I just moved the 9k in. I didn't have any ulterior motive for it.

Heh...

That's really interesting.

Honestly, you could fold and make the money.

If you think BB has a monster, why not?

You should be playing for the money, right?

It's reaaally interesting...lol

I see where you are going with this, but I don't like the fold. You are counting on the dominoes going down just so--if the SB wins the hand you're toast. To me, they would have to have just about precisely the same amount of chips to even consider folding. Even then, unless you desperately can't afford to lose your buyin or something, I'd go for the win (which is pretty close to assured if you survive the hand). After all, you give yourself essentially no chance to win if you aim for second. When you're playing with your buddies ("mates"), especially, isn't the satisfaction of winning a big part of it along with the money?

So here's my defense of folding:



If we stay in, we bust lose 81.87% (100-win-tie) of the time.




With our hand mucked, SB busts here 82% of the time.

So...

We triple up 16.76% of the time by calling, but still risk winning nothing. Or we fold, we get 2nd place money 82% of the time.

I guess it's up to you guys here. I don't know how to calculate cEV or $EV things...lol

Feel free to argue the ranges.

It's hard for me to accept that even someone who knew the players well could discern their ranges this precisely. Actually, I'd go further and say that it's hard to imagine that any two players, with relatively similar stack sizes, could differ so widely on their pushing ranges (and yeah, I understand that the BB overpushed, which is stronger than the first push, but that first push was in response to a raise after all) as to make one a more than four-to-one favourite over the other.

Well, I used the range simo gave in the OP for SB. It's a standard isolation range vs a shorty that can have any two usually.

BB, in order to over push here, has to be very strong, or maniacal. simo said the table had been tight, so I assigned him a tight range. What would you consider his range here?

Don't forget, it's not like he's pushing around small stacks... he's on the bubble as well, and if he loses this one, he's going to be the shortstack if we win, or severely outchipped HU. He's not just tossing them in there with any two here.

Having said that, this will come up once in a billion times, so it's not something to be overly worried about, but I like to defend myself.

easy fold.

I think I know the point you may be demonstrating but he PF raise was just silly to begin with. You don't put yourself into that situation. WOuld have to assume BB has a hand here so you are likely dominated or worse than flipping a coin here. Your aces are not live. Original shover could have a PP or A high as well. You have the chance to cash with a hand that is way behind, I say you fold.

Don't ever put yourself in this situation. Push PF.

so...

Call scenario:

12% triple up and SB busts. Stacks are about even at 30k each. TEQ = 600
5% triple up and SB wins side pot. Stacks look like 30k (hero), 22k, 8k TEQ = 547
83% bust. TEQ = 0

TEV = .12 (600) + .05 ( 547) + 0 = 100

Fold scenario:
82% SB busts, and stacks look like 1k, 59k TEQ = 407
18% SB wins and stacks look like like 1k, 53k, 6k TEQ = 65

TEV = 345

folding has three and a half times the tournament equity that calling has with the given range. Even if SB and BB are in a coin flip, it gives you over 235 in equity which is 17% ROI. You'd have to win the 3-way all in about 40% of the time to get the same equity by calling. I dont think you can assign reasonable ranges that give you a 40% chance of winning if you call. I think folding is VERY clearly correct.

BB's range has to be extremely tight here. This is bubble play, and folding is clearly best with all but premium hands if you're BB. The overpush is huge.

^^ Ty sir.

I had BB on something like TT+, AQo+, AJs+. We had all been drinking a little so I think his range was wider than it should have been.

I thought about it for a while and folded. SB had AJo and BB had 99 which held. I think BB's play is poor, but he knows he is almost certainly ahead of me and he is highly likely to be ahead of SB as well. It's bad, but defensible given the circumstances.

I was pretty certain I made the right play, but it still felt strange to fold preflop getting 30/1. If the payouts were $1k/$200 rather than $800/$400 I would have called.

It's definitely "against the rules" to raise PF with the vast majority of your chips without pushing. But doesn't the math people have laid out suggest that there might be an exception in a bubble situation like this? I find it hard to understand how it could be a bad play to leave a few chips behind, yet it would be the right play to fold once he sees the action from the other two players. After all, it's not like a push would have had any significantly different amount of FE.

Zach, it sure looks like you were clearly right as concerns the mathematical monetary bottom line. Even knowing this, though, I would still call (though not if I knew for a fact how slim I would be drawing) unless--as I said--I really, really needed the money. Sliding into second place with no realistic chance to win would be very unsatisfying to me, just not any fun.

A few things:

A situation like this really won't come up enough to justify leaving change behind, etc.

Secondly, I can't speak for everyone, but I don't play poker for the satisfaction of winning. I play it for money. If folding makes more money, but leaves me feeling upset because I'm giving up on 1st, then I still fold.

It really makes no difference whatsoever unless we have a strange situation like this. I had a stack of 9 $1k chips, plus a load of chaff. Both opponents realised I had essentially shoved so it doesn't change their ranges in the slightest.

Hey Zach...how about poker-stoving Simo's range and we'll update the math and put this to bed.

Thanks. Doesn't change the call scenario significant. Fold scenario looks like:

.62 * 407 + .34 * 65

275 or so

Hey, that's cool--I am very competitive and like to win. But for someone who is playing straight up for money: might it not be a sensible rule when acting first three handed on the bubble, to leave a single chip behind when "pushing"? Can't see how it could hurt in any way.

Ok Knish.