OK, this is my only big hand from the 1k buyin at the Turning Stone March Madness.

I had about 45k (5k starting stacks), and was by far the big stack at my table. About 55 left, 15 cash.

I had a fairly aggressive image right now, but not maniacial.

I raise on the button to 1200 with 56o, Adam Junglen (Very good, young online player, very aggressive) calls in BB.

Flop K97 with 2 spades, he checks, I check.

Turn 4s, he bets 1800. I'm pretty sure he has the As and nothing else, so I plan to shove any non-spade river, because I know he's going to fire again.

River 4d, he bets 3500, I shove for his last 7k more.

Thoughts?

How do you put him so solidly on the naked A spade? I mean maybe you have a really solid read, but from what you wrote there isn't too much to point to that conclusion.

I think they play you made was aggressive which is fine, but there is no way he's folding a king. I think his calling range is 1010+. If you think he has worse than that then good push.

Are blinds here 200-400? I'm just assuming that. When I was first responding I missed it and thought they were 6-1200, so maybe his calling range is a little tighter, maybe just kings or better. Really depends on his feel of you though.

Yeah, blinds were 200/400.

I put him on the As because I think he leads that flop with the Ks, or a flush draw. After betting that turn, I was about 80% sure he had the As, or a bluff in which case I still shove any non-spade river.

Hmmm. I just don't really agree. I mean he could have anything on that checked flop, literally any 2 in my opinion. I think it's just as likely he goes for the C/R on your (I'm suspecting) usual CB. Then when he doesn't get the CB on the turn he leads at you, his inaction has not tipped off his hand strength IMO.

It would be much different if he wasn't defending his blind. To me, I think the A spades is plausible but I also think just about any decent hand could be value betting at you and practically be committed to the pot. He's getting almost 2:1 on the call here. I think your play is a bit too creative/aggressive. But it is interesting, I'd prefer not sitting with someone capable of throwing this river bluff at me.

I agree. Your table image is aggressive and you've raised on the button, so his call could simply be a blind defense against your steal, hoping he'll hit something on the flop. He could have flopped bottom pair, or perhaps completed the flush on the turn (though I agree that he probably would have thrown out a big bet on the flop with the flush draw). The fact that he bet on the river after you called his turn bet tells me that he must have hit something.

I am in agreement. If villain is good player and using multi level thinking, would he not attempt to c/r you with a nut flush draw? I think I would but I play at a much lower level then this match.

This hand I think will just prove to you what kind of image you really have. If you are chip leader and bullying, you could have a whole lot of hands. Villain will call with any K. Villain could have hand Like K and any weaker spade and play the turn the way they did.

As4 or K4s never crossed your mind as a hand villain could be holding. I think they are definite hands that could be played here the way they were by villain.

I guess my concern is if you can say villain is a very good player, I think he bet river amount in effort to block and commit himself against the CL. If he is good, then I'm sure there is some folding equity but I just think the bluff is bad idea.
He has put in half of his stack here already.

Live I always say go with your reads, so if the read is Asx and no King then good bet but I see villain calling in this scenario.

i can see him checking a K on the flop, trying to get a c/r in, but most importantly i think he's committed himself to the pot on the turn. i would've gotten a count on the turn before thinking about making this play. it's really doubtful that he's gonna muck on the end when he's invested more than half his stack.

also, i'm not really sure what you're representing playing the hand this way. you probably play a set faster with a flush draw out there, and you'd obv be raising at some point with tp... QQ/JJ/TT would make sense, but it looks like you are the one on the draw if i'm junglen.

also, there were probably better players to try to steal from lol.

I completely agree with this as well, I was thinking about it more last night. Zim's bluff doesn't seem consistent with any real hand. Maybe that's easy to see when we know he has nothing and it would be interesting to play the hand out from the other way around and see if we could make the river call, but I think he's not representing anything and more preying on weakness. Which is a fine strat against a lot of people but if that kid is very good I doubt he'll back away just because of sheer aggression.

right, i think if you're going to try to represent a hand you have to either 1) bet the flop (representing tp/set/qq/jj) or 2) raise the turn (representing the flush). the only hand that kind of makes sense for your line is if you had turned the nut flush and aren't afraid of anything on the river.

I think that a combination of things should lead you to dump the hand, probably when he leads the turn.

1. If you've been aggressive, he probably planned to check-raise with whatever part of the flop he might have hit.
2. On a coordinated flop like that, if you actually had any piece of it, you'd be betting to protect it. If you flopped a draw, you'd also likely bet with continued aggression from your preflop raise.
3. When he leads the turn, he could be leading it with a naked spade draw, air, a set, a king or any other piece of the flop that he caught. He probably (and correctly) figured that you had nothing and that his hand was best and that he needed to protect it in case you had a single spade.
4. Given that he has put in roughly half of his stack by the river, your push is desperate and is destined to fail. If he has a flush or a boat you're certainly getting called. I don't know what range of hands you put him on (except the naked nut spade draw) that will actually fold to this bet on the river. It looks like you're trying to represent a full house when the rest of your play makes that an unlikely holding for you.

I would say that if you wanted to win this pot, the time to do it would've been with a c-bet on the flop becuase then you could represent other hands, even if you missed. As played, he probably knows you have nothing and has already committed himself to the pot on the river.

Yeah, looking back at it, I really don't know what I'm representing.

Any good hand likely raises that turn rather than just calling.

Results: He thought for about a minute or so, then called with As and a 4. I really think if the river comes down with anything but the 4, then I can get him off of the hand (obviously an A or spade and I don't bluff).

Oh, and I realize that I really screwed up by not betting the flop. I guess I was just scared of him c/r with air, as he could do.