Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $207.30
UTG+1: $144.65
CO: $332.15
Button: $361
SB: $96
BB: $217.35

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises to $7, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: K 9 J ($22, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: T ($22, 3 players)
BB bets $16, Hero raises to $55, CO folds, BB calls.

River: 3 ($132, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

New computer and have still yet to get pokertrack back up, so no really reads, but had been playing with the villain on 3 tables for about 2 and a half hours. Seemed solid. Anyways, board is great, how do you like the turn and what am I doing on the river?

Overbet push. If you bet 90-100 he is only calling with a queen anyway so you may as well overbet push and maximise your gain. Betting out a tiny amount to get called by 2 pair hands is pretty bad as you let a lone queen off cheaply. Also by over bet pushing you may sometimes find a donkey who will put you on a missed flush and call you with top 2.

Think for a while, then push.

Unless you really beleive he has a Q, then I HATE your bet on the turn. It's tough to call there without a Q and you made an enormous raise with the nuts. The good news is he called anyway. The great news is that he likely has Qx and has the 2nd nuts or he's an idiot and called with a hand that he should've folded.

On the river, I go ahead and push, even if it's an overbet. If he has Qx, you're getting paid. If he was dumb enough to call the turn without a Q, then you still might get paid becuase he's an idiot.

I agree. Calling your big reraise on the turn is defintley the sign of a queen, especially if you read him for being solid. Might as well push. I cant see a Q folding for how much he's invested. An overbet, like someone mentioned, will also arouse suspicion and you might even get a "hero" call from someone with a set or two pair.

the bolded statement is completely untrue. 2 pair will call enough of the time. stacks are not deep really deep enough here for an overpush as we only have 140ish left after the river.

i like betting $70 on the river. this bet will get called near 100% of the time by 2 pair which I believe is most likely holding.

I am often against an overbet when I am certain that a solid value bet will be called by a villain. In this case however, look at the action that took place on the turn. If the villain has a Q, he will stack off on the river. If the villain was on a flush draw, no bet will be called regardless of how small it is.

Now let's consider him holding 2 pair. He called the large raise on the turn when he was OOP and getting no odds to draw to anything. If he did call with 2 pair, which he shouldn't have, doesn't the off suit 3 on the river look like a safe card for him? If he thought he was ahead then I see no reason why he's gonna fold now, regardless of our bet size.

I would feel silly if he checks, i make a solid value bet, hoping to get called by 2 pair and he turns over QJ. Unless he has a Q in his hand, he already admitted (by calling) to very questionable judgement in this pot. I'm gonna use that against him and put him to a tough all-in decision on the river if he's holding 2 pair becuase I believe that he will call often enough to make it the most profitable play.

I think the most likely holding for villian in this spot is a Q. I don't like the turn reraise, I would have liked just a smooth call. Then see what villian does on the river, since you have position, if he checks like he did then I don't really like the push, you need to figure out an amount that will get called the majority of the time. If you think he'll call the all in 20% of the time, call a half pot bet 50% of the time, call a 2/3 to pot bet 75-80% of the time, then go for the 2/3 to pot sized bet. I think a push is going to force a fold, which you kinda gave away your hand when reraising the turn. Next time in this situation, smooth call with the nuts, then find an amount that will get called enough to be profitable.

If the villain has a Q in this spot, he will not fold his hand since he's most likely splitting the pot with the hero.

I disagree on this logic. Possible hands he could call a raise with? 2 pair, set, Q, flush draw. First off, it would not be hard for a good pair to get off 2 pair fairly easily here. Set and flush draw are a bit tougher as they have better redraw odds, so we can't give them that here. PLUS, the hand we want the call from "Qx" will have trouble getting away from just about any size bet. So a large over raise on the turn actually is a good move. Again remember we are trying to maximize value here. So getting as many chips in the pot is our goal.

As for the river, it was obviously what we were looking for a non-diamond/non-paired board. As played, I pushed, and villain mucked. So he either made a great lay down of the Q, missed his flush draw, or made some weird call on the turn. But I couldn't stop wondering if I might have got a call of a bet in the $75 range.

Villain made a total blocker bet on the turn. He had a flush draw. He wasn't calling ANYthing on the river. IMHO.

That was my instinct. We either waaaay underbet or overbet then, hoping he has a pair or something too.

I agree that villain can't call anything if he's folding on the river.
I am in the air about the blocker bet. Most people fold when their blocker bet is raised that big. If he was drawing to a flush, then he's an idiot.