MikeThicke
Monday, February 12th, 2007, 3:17 PM
QUOTE (nutzbuster @ Saturday, February 10th, 2007, 10:25 PM)

Your credibility just went out the window with this ridiculously general statement. Based on what do you to surmise that this statement is accurate?
I for one am insulted. There are a great many here with above average intellect, and I find that the fact that we all don't agree on every point makes for a healthy and valid debate.
I'm not sure why I would have credibility to start with, or why this would hurt it if I did. It is a general observation from knowing quite a few poker players, online and in-person, who seem as a group to be more disconnected from these issues, and worse informed, than other groups of people I know. The sentence is qualified quite clearly with "I think..." so it's not like I'm making an empirical claim. I'd be happy to be wrong.
QUOTE
I think that we should act, but not for the reasons you state. That's like believing in God "just in case" he's real and you want to avoid hell. If we want to do something to save the environment, we do it not because it "might" help, we do it because there is an overwhelming abundance of evidence to suggest that our failure to do anything will be catastrophic.
This is quite right. However, the original post is right to. I would draw an analogy to the "
One Percent Doctrine". This is the relevant quote from **** Cheney:
If there's a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It's not about our analysis ... It's about our response.
In the case of catastrophic climate change, we might call it the 90% doctrine. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that:
The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since
the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net
effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming
Where "very high confidence" is define as "at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct". This is a report produced and endorsed by virtually all reputable climate scientists, and I believe the Bush White House has even endorsed it, though I'm not sure. You can read their
summary report for yourself if you'd like.
So if you believe that Cheney is correct in his above statement, we've got an 89% leeway here in treating climate change as a certain threat, and this threat is a species-wide threat - the first credible threat to the survival of our species since we left Africa. That sounds very alarmist, but I think it is quite realistic to assume that if we continue to behave as we have for the last century, the Earth could become unsuitable for human life within a few centuries. Catastrophic consequences, largely to the world's poor, will probably occur within decades.
I have been recommending a book, "The Upside of Down" by Thomas-Homer Dixon to everyone I can. It is a very educational look at the state of the world, environmentally and socially, and what is likely to occur in the near future, and finally what can be done about it. Just from a learning perspective, this is one of the best books I've read in quite a while (and as a philosophy student and student magazine editor I do *a lot* of reading).