How do you guys think O'Brien's injury will impact him/the fight?

I think something like +150 or +160 would be a good bet for Sakara. Leben looked much better in his last fight against Martin and he looks like he's taking training more seriously and getting into better shape for his fights. Sakara is better technically for sure, but he has never responded well when he's been clipped and Leben has 1 shot KO power. Leben on the other hand has been hurt and come back to win. I think that's quite a big factor in this fight where both will be throwing bombs and I feel it will come down to who takes the other's punch best.

This is definitely not one of those cards to really bet much on. It's probably not going to be all that entertaining either, as the only fight that really interests me is Silva/Hendo. Sanchez/Bielheden should be entertaining and the Leben fight too, but the rest all have potential to be snoozers.

I'm pretty sure he is feeling close to 100% or he wouldn't take a fight with someone like Arlovski. They're both coming off long layoffs though and we'll just have to see how each of them handles that.

I think you guys are underestimating kongo's take down D....he's tough to take down, and highly skilled on his feet imo, and his camp is WAY better than herring's which is v v important imo, I think steve would agree there too.
If Herring wants to win, I think he has to take Kongo down and submit, and GL doing that w/ out eating a knee. I might be way off on this one, but ask hoosier what I texted him the day of the cro-cop fight, I've always thought Kongo was a beast. I still think it's highly +EV.

.dbl post

From the fights I've seen of Kongo, he does not have very good takedown defense. Assuerio Silva and Carmelo Marrero took him down frequently and easily. I'm still picking Kongo to pull the fight out, but it won't be easy. I think he's going to be taken down and tested on the ground at some point. Herring's stand up is not too bad either and he has good power. He is also very tough and takes a pretty good shot, so I think Kongo will have a tough time getting him out of there.

I really don't feel the camp will factor in too big. Herring has been around a long time and knows how to get ready for a fight. Kongo training with Rampage should improve his wrestling, but by how much remains to be seen.

Performity has his picks up via mmajunkie.com:

http://mmajunkie.com/

"Anderson Silva (-145) vs. Dan Henderson (+115)

Anderson “The Spider” Silva holds a 20-4 MMA record and is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC. Since moving to the UFC, he’s amassed dominant victories over Chris Leben, Travis Lutter, Nate Marquardt, and Rich Franklin twice. At 32 years of age, Silva is widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound MMA fighters on the planet. In fact, he’s ranked at the pinnacle of the pound-for-pound rankings from FIGHT! Magazine and Yahoo! Sports. Silva is not only the current UFC middleweight champion, but he has held titles in two other MMA organizations: England’s Cage Rage and Japan’s Shooto.

MMA betting at BodogSilva holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, earned under reigning UFC heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. Silva is currently part of the Iron House fight team. You may know this formidable bunch better under their former name of “Black House” (the name was changed around the time of UFC 79 reportedly due to trademark reasons). Silva trains alongside Lyoto Machida, Paulo Filho, Vitor Belfort and the Nogueira brothers.

Before we move on, let’s run down that list for a second. Machida: holder of a perfect 12-0 MMA record (4-0 UFC) and generally considered a top challenger to the UFC’s light heavyweight belt. Filho: the reigning WEC middleweight champion and holder of a perfect 16-0 MMA record. Belfort: former UFC light heavyweight champion and currently the Cage Rage light heavyweight champion. And Nogueira just took over the UFC’s interim heavyweight belt. Is there a more dominant fight team in MMA? Anywhere?

Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is 22-6 in his professional mixed martial arts career, and he is 2-1 in the UFC after losing to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 75 (Henderson also competed in a middleweight tournament at UFC 17, fighting twice and winning both matches). Henderson is 37 years old and trains at Team Quest alongside Matt Lindland and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.

Henderson is a former National Greco-Roman wrestling champion and also a two-time Olympic challenger, having competed for the 1992 and 1996 U.S. Greco-Roman wrestling teams. In case you’re not familiar, Greco-Roman wrestling primarily differs from freestyle or amateur wrestling by the fact that it does not allow the wrestlers to hold or attack below the waist. You can’t shoot on your opponent for a takedown via the legs, for example; Greco is almost all clinches and throws.

A point that many have overlooked in the hype of this fight is that this is actually the second official title-unification bout between the UFC and PRIDE. First, Jackson unified the 205-pound belts by defeating Henderson at UFC 75. Now, this fight will unify the belts between the UFC’s middleweight division (185 lbs.) and PRIDE’s “welterweight” division (183 lbs.). Not to mention we also had the former (but not the reigning) PRIDE heavyweight champion in Nogueira take the UFC’s title by choking out Tim Sylvia, so given the situation where the most recent reigning PRIDE heavyweight champion (Fedor Emelianenko) isn’t in the UFC/PRIDE organization, you can almost consider that a unified title. At least i can, if I close my eyes hard enough and keep repeating “there’s no place like Zuffa… there’s no place like Zuffa.” Or maybe that’s just me…

I think Henderson has two realistic chances to win this fight. The first is an absolute longshot: land the big overhand right. Silva has some of the best head movement and footwork in MMA, tremendous speed with his own strikes, and has never been knocked out or even really wobbled, so I don’t really see this happening very frequently. Anything is certainly possible, but it’s also not probable. If anything, I expect Henderson will eat two to three deadly Silva strikes every time he tries to wind up and unload the big right, which will quickly turn in to a losing proposition no matter how much punishment the rock-hard head of Henderson seems to be able to absorb.

The second way that I see Henderson winning this fight is a much more realistic threat. Silva has a tremendously active and dangerous guard when he’s on the bottom. But he has also shown a weakness in several of his fights in which his opponents can pass guard into side control, and he has been controlled there before, which has cost him fights. Silva has only two meaningful losses in his career (yes, I’m excluding both the DQ loss to Yushin Okami at Rumble on the Rock 8 and the freak flying heel hook to Ryo Chonan at PRIDE Shockwave 2004). Both of Silva’s meaningful losses have come by way of being constrained in side control. At PRIDE 26, Daiju Takase essentially held Silva on his back in side control until he was able to secure a submission. And in Silva’s first professional fight against Luiz Azeredo, Azeredo was able to grind out a decision win primarily by holding Silva in side control for most of the fight.

Now, the Azerado loss was nearly eight years ago, and the Takase loss was nearly five years ago. Are they meaningful to today’s Silva, the dominant pound-for-pound champion? Not entirely. However we also saw Silva’s tendency to get his guard passed and controlled very recently, including against Travis Lutter only a year ago. There, Lutter was able to pass Silva’s guard with ease when the fight hit the canvas, and he was even able to move into the mount before getting swept.

I believe Henderson’s best gameplan for winning this fight is to get inside to a body lock, secure a takedown via trip or drag, work on passing Silva’s guard, and try holding him in side control for the rest of the round, using just enough ground and pound to keep from getting stood up. There’s a reason that he held the nickname “Decision Dan” in PRIDE, and if anyone can take the dangerous Silva to decision, it’s almost certainly Henderson.

So, having just laid out a gameplan for Henderson to realistically take this fight without having to depend on landing a big right, let’s move on to the real issue at hand. There’s no question it’s certainly a possibility that Henderson can take this fight. The question we have to ask ourselves, from a gambling perspective, is how likely is Henderson to actually be able to implement this gameplan effectively? In other words, what’s the real probability that Henderson can upset Silva?

Many analysts believe this fight is a figurative coinflip, that either Silva or Henderson have almost equal chances of winning this fight. Some even favor Henderson. For example check out “Frank Trigg’s Fight Breakdown” in which he’s ready to hand the belts to Henderson already. Sorry Frank, but I think you’re going to be disappointed on Saturday. Personally, I foresee Silva walking away from this fight victorious; I certainly don’t think that Henderson is a coinflip to win.

Simply put, I believe Silva is too dangerous in too many areas for Henderson to take this fight a high percentage of the time. I will go as far as to say that I think Silva at the current odds is a good bet.

First off, this is a five-round title fight, so if Henderson does attempt to implement a methodical, controlled gameplan like I laid out above and push for a decision, there’s still a tremendous amount of time that Silva will have to land a fight-ending shot or even slap on a submission. There are also five bells to answer, and five standing starts to the fight, where Silva will have a tremendous advantage over Henderson.

Many people will jump in at this juncture to point out that Henderson has never been knocked out. That’s certainly true. However, Henderson has also never faced Silva before. Silva delivered iron-jawed Leben his first and only career knockout. Silva also delivered Marquardt his only career TKO, and he is only one of two people to have knocked out Franklin (the other being a much-larger Lyoto Machida when Franklin was still fighting at 205). Not to say that I see Silva landing a one-shot knockout on Henderson by any means; I expect Silva to overwhelm Henderson with a technical, accurate barrage of strikes, kicks, knees and elbows, much the way that he did to Rich Franklin at UFC 77.

Silva is simply the best striker in MMA today, and perhaps one of the top few in history. At range, he dominates with excellent footwork and vicious kicks. In close, his Muay Thai is almost unparalleled, with vicious knees, elbows and dirty boxing.

From his back, he has a dangerous guard and incredible flexibility, and uses the leverage created by his long limbs to cause real problems for his opponents, including often slapping on a body triangle where he can pepper his opponent with elbows.

So here’s exactly how I expect this fight to go down: I think Henderson is going to know that he has to close distance and take this fight to the ground to have a chance early. Silva is going to try to create distance and pepper with strikes from outside using his fluid footwork. Despite this, Henderson will likely get inside in the first round after eating a couple blows, and his Greco skills will certainly dump Silva no matter how much Silva’s been focused on defending the drag-down in practice lately.

When the fight hits the mat, I believe that Silva will have a specific gameplan for tying up Henderson utilizing his unorthodox guard and long limbs, and he will succeed in getting the fight back to the feet. There, Henderson will continue to absorb punishment before trying to rinse and repeat.

After two, at most three rounds of the same, I think we see Henderson start to gas. He’s 37 years old and has never shown effective cardio fighting at this weight; it seems like the cut takes too much out of him, and as his age increases, I think this factor is going to become even more of a problem. At this point in the fight, I think we see Henderson get a little frustrated and try to start winding up the big overhand right. And that’s when Silva will secure his place as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world; we’ll see Silva “dodge, dip, duck, dive and dodge,” slipping Henderson’s telegraphed rights and responding with shot after shot until he gets to a point where he can overwhelm his opponent with a barrage of unanswered blows and force the referee to step in.

Anderson Silva by TKO (strikes) early in the fourth round or late in the third.

Cheick Kongo (-175) vs. Heath Herring (+145)

Yawn.

Herring is 27-13 in MMA and is 1-2 in the UFC. Kongo is 11-3-1 in MMA and 4-1 in the UFC, including a narcolepsy-inducing unanimous decision win over Mirko ‘Cro Cop” Filipovic. Kongo is 32; Herring 29.

The expected playbook for this fight is that Herring will look to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. Kongo will most certainly expect that and will do everything he can to keep the fight standing or work to get back to his feet once the fight hits the ground.

MMA can be unpredictable at times, and Herring is certainly crazy enough to try something really unorthodox here. But I won’t be surprised at all if this is one of the worst fights in recent UFC history, especially so given that Kongo’s last three fights all are likewise candidates for that dubious honor. Herring has the modicum of wrestling ability that’s apparently necessary to put Kongo on his back and keep him there, and assuming he doesn’t get blasted on the way in or decide to mix it up early, I think we get Herring laying-and-praying his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision amidst a chorus of boos from the crowd.

Sadly, if Kongo wins, he’s in position for a title shot or at least a No. 1 contenders’ match.

Chris Leben (-165) vs. Alessio Sakara (+135)

Alessio Sakara is 12-6 in MMA and 3-3 in the UFC with one no-contest. Sakara fights out of American Top Team. This is his first fight down at 185, after formerly competing at light heavyweight. Chris Leben holds a 17-4 MMA record and is 9-3 in the UFC. Leben had dropped two straight, against Jason MacDonald and Kalib Starnes, before rebounding with a KO of Terry Martin in September.

Sakara hasn’t shown much promise to me in his UFC career, and I don’t expect he’ll find significant success at 185. Leben’s ability to absorb punishment and respond with looping bombs is likely to prove to be bad news for Sakara, who has shown a surprising willingness to quit in his past fights, not to mention his suspect conditioning.

That said, it’s always possible that 185 is where Sakara should have been fighting all along, and the strength and size he should possess at the lower weight class may allow him to impose his will on Leben. I expect an exciting first half of the first round, followed by a descent into sloppiness for both fighters, culminating in Sakara staring up at the lights. Leben by KO in the second.

Yushin Okami (-220) vs. Evan Tanner (+120)

Yushin Okami holds a 20-4 MMA record and only one loss in his past eight fights, a close but unanimous decision loss to Rich Franklin at UFC 72. Okami is ridiculously large and strong for a middleweight, and has won most of his fights by either ground-and-pound or by using his size and wresting skills to grind out a decision.

Former middleweight champion Evan Tanner holds a 32-6 MMA record and is coming back to the UFC after an almost two-year hiatus. Tanner is 37 years old.

This line opened with Okami as a much smaller favorite, and I piled on heavy early. The line has continued to climb, and I expect it will do so until right before fight time when some sharps buy back their position.

Okami presents a tough matchup to just about anyone. I’m afraid a 37-year-old Tanner returning after two years away will be really surprised to see how much the fight game has evolved in his absence. Okami is just a monster of size and strength, and he will be, by far, the biggest and strongest middleweight that Tanner has ever faced.

Tanner’s a great name in MMA and has accomplished a lot in his 10-year career; however, I’ll be extremely surprised if he can throw anything at Okami. I expect this fight to go exactly like the rest of Okami’s fights in the UFC: a bit of a slow start for the Japanese fighter, but Okami using his overwhelming strength to secure either a decision victory or a late third-round TKO. Here, I think Okami will have enough to stop Tanner in the latter part of the fight. Expect to see Okami fighting Anderson Silva next, assuming he makes it past Tanner here.

Even at the elevated line, I still feel that Okami is the best bet on the card. Okami by TKO in the third round.

(In the unlikely event that Tanner pulls the upset, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him granted an immediate title shot due to the lack of depth at 185.)

Jon Fitch (-550) vs. Chris Wilson (+350)

Former IFL fighter Chris Wilson trains with Team Quest alongside Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland and Sokoudjou. Wilson holds a 13-3 professional MMA record and is making his UFC debut.

Jon Fitch holds a 15-2 MMA record and is undefeated in his past 14 fights; he hasn’t lost since 2002. Fitch is a former collegiate wrestler, in fact co-captain of the Purdue wrestling team his senior year (2002). Fitch trains at American Kickboxing Academy — AKA — under Dave Camarillo. He holds a brown belt in BJJ earned under Camarillo.

Fitch is a massive favorite here for a reason. While Wilson has shown a lot of success on the smaller stages, Fitch outmatches him in almost every way. Fitch’s wrestling skills will prove way too much for Wilson here. I expect Fitch to put on a wrestling clinic, and eventually secure a TKO in the third round after putting Wilson on his back consistently for the first two rounds.

Andrei Arlovski (-350) vs. Jake O’Brien (+250)

Unfortunately with Andrei Arlovski’s contract situation, the only way we’re getting to see this fight as part of the broadcast is if Arlovski gets beaten. Former heavyweight champion Arlovski holds a 10-5 MMA record and has won his past two fights after dropping the two prior to Tim Sylvia. “The Pitbull” has been on the bench since April of last year reportedly due to contract issues, and will likely have some ring rust.

Jake O’Brien holds a perfect 10-0 MMA record and is 3-0 in the UFC. O’Brien should have even more ring rust than Arlovski, having not fought professionally since January 2007 when he defeated Heath Herring by unanimous decision.

I really don’t like betting on fighters who have been on long layoffs, and here we’re dealing with two fighters who will likely be trying to shed a good deal of rust. Arlovski is dangerous with speed and power, but O’Brien has shown solid wresting skills and certainly may be able to take this fight to the ground and grind out a decision. Due to the unpredictability, I’d recommend staying away.

Luke Cummo (-160) vs. Luigi Fioravanti (+130)

Former “The Ultimate Fighter” contestant Luke Cummo is 6-4 in MMA, 3-2 in the UFC. He trains under Matt Serra. American Top Team’s Fioravanti (pronounced “Fee-Or-Vahn-Teh”) is 11-3 in MMA but 2-3 in the UFC. Fioravanti dropped his past two fights in the UFC, to Jon Fitch and Forrest Petz before stepping outside the organization in mid-2007 to get back on the winning track. Cummo has won his past two, over Josh Haynes and Edilberto de Oliveira.

Both of these guys are most comfortable striking, so we could see some fireworks out of this fight. Cummo has the edge in accuracy, Fioravanti in power. Cummo will look to continue his winning ways, while Fioravanti is in a must-win situation if he wants to stay with the UFC. I think this fight is too close to call at these odds; Cummo could take this to a decision with technical striking, or Fioravanti could end the fight with a TKO.

Josh Koscheck (-450) vs. Dustin Hazelett (+300)

Josh Koscheck holds a 9-2 MMA record and is 7-2 in the UFC. Koscheck is one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers active in MMA today, as a former four-time All-American and former NCAA division-I champion. He’s coming off a one-sided unanimous decision loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 74.

For an excellent look at Hazelett from a true insiders perspective, be sure to check out MMAjunkie.com columnist Sean Salmon’s Get to Know ‘Em: Dustin Hazelett feature. Hazelett is 22 years old and holds a brown belt in BJJ under Jorge Gurgel. Hazelett is 3-1 in the UFC and 10-3 in professional MMA.

I actually like Hazelett here as a 3-to-1 underdog, and not just because of the relationship the site has to Gurgel’s gym. Koscheck has been submitted before, and he hasn’t finished any of his recent fights. Strong wrestlers have certainly proven they’re able to neutralize a lot of BJJ skill recently; however, I think Koscheck will be in danger for a lot of this fight from Hazelett’s dangerous guard. I don’t expect Hazelett wins this fight a significant percentage of the time, but certainly enough to make him a decent bet as such a substantial underdog.

Diego Sanchez (-450) vs. David Bielkheden (+300)

David Bielkheden is a Swedish fighter with a 12-5 MMA record and a BJJ black belt from Brazilian Top Team. Bielkheden has fought in Shooto and once in PRIDE (at Bushido 13 in November 2006). There, he lost a unanimous decision to Mitsuhiro Ishida.

Diego Sanchez is 17-2 in professional MMA (and 6-2 in the UFC) after dropping his last two fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch at UFC 69 and 76 respectively. Sanchez formerly trained under Greg Jackson, but he left the camp in August 2007 and now trains out of California with the North County Fight Club (NCFC) alongside Brandon Vera and Roger Huerta.

Sanchez’s split decision loss to Fitch had to be a tough loss, emotionally, especially so after being so used to winning. This should be a decent test of Sanchez’s testicular fortitude; can he regain his winning ways by handling a dangerous competitor, or will the pressure of avoiding his third consecutive loss prove too much for the winner of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter” series?

At these odds, I don’t think it’s worth betting on Sanchez. One might consider a small flier on Bielkheden’s BJJ skills as a 3-to-1 underdog, but I don’t think it’s a worthwhile bet. Sanchez should be able to take this fight pretty easily, despite Bielkheden’s background with BTT.

Sanchez by TKO in the second round.

Jorge Gurgel (-200) vs. John Halverson (+160)

John Halverson holds a 16-5 MMA record. He suffered disappointment in his UFC debut, getting stopped early by Roger Huerta at UFC 67 in a fight that wasn’t without controversy; it appeared to many that Huerta hit Halverson with an illegal knee while he was the ground. Halverson stepped away from the UFC after losing to Huerta, where has won his past three fights all by way of submission. Halverson is a former Gold Gloves boxing competitor and jetski tricks competitor. Halverson is 35 years old and has been competing in professional MMA since the latter part of 2002.

Jorge Gurgel is 31 and owns a 13-2 MMA record. He was a contestant on “The Ultimate Fighter 2” and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under PRIDE veteran and grappling legend Marcus Aurelio. He fights out of Cincinnati, Ohio, but was born in Fortaleza, Brazil. (There are also several other notable MMA fighters who hail from the town, including Gurgel’s mentor Marcus Aurelio, Thiago Alves, Wilson Gouveia and Hermes Franca.)

Gurgel is generally considered one of MMA’s best instructors. His 13,000-square-foot facility in Cincinnati has been lauded by the local and national media as one of the best training centers anywhere in the world. Gurgel’s student Dustin Hazelett is also competing on this card, and Gurgel and Hazelett have been training together.

Gurgel has had trouble in the past with getting smacked in the face, and Halverson has decently-well rounded skills and should have superior striking in this match-up with his Golden Gloves background. Gurgel certainly has the edge on the ground, despite Halverson’s recent string of submission victories.

All of Gurgel’s fights in the UFC have gone the distance. Halverson certainly has a chance to stop Gurgel with strikes if he can keep the fight standing, but I expect more than not that we’ll see Gurgel get the fight to the ground and will grind out a decision win. Gurgel certainly has the BJJ pedigree to submit Halverson, but I think Halverson’s athleticism and continued development will prove sufficient to avoid getting choked out. Gurgel by unanimous decision.

My recommended plays:

* Anderson Silva (-145) : 1.45u to win 1u
* Yushin Okami (-220) : 3.3u to win 1.5u
* Jon Fitch (-550) : 5.5u to win 1u
* Dustin Hazelett (+300) : .33u to win 1u
"

I'm actually going to add a small play on Hazlett based on his analysis and bc I didnt bet that fight yet.

I think his analysis is a bit off for the Kos/Hazelett fight, because Kos has excellent submission defense. He's only been submitted once and that was against Fickett where getting caught with the knee had more to do with getting choked out than anything else. Regardless, come to think of it I feel Kos will probably keep the fight standing for the most part and out point him in the stand-up. He'll probably only go for a few takedowns just to score points.

Just wanted to cross post this for all the MMA fans that might not visit the TV forum. If you like fighting you MUST watch this show Fight Quest...quite entertaining.

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...howtopic=118919

My Picks

Henderson over Silva. I think DH's strength and chin will get him through the first couple of rounds. I think he eventually will mount Silva somewhere from the third round on and pound him out.

Herring over Kongo. I think Heath will get an ankle lock or armbar submission somewhwere along the way

Leben over Sakara. I think Leben looked much improved technically for most of the Martin fight. Of course in the end he just decided to go for a chin for chin exchange which he won. I think he knocks out Sakara

Not gonna pick any others but I dont mind the value bet on Hazzelat and dont like the dog pick in the Fitch Wilson fight but wouldnt bet -500 on the favorite.

Anywhere online I can watch this live or any program I can dl to watch it?

There is a guy on justin.tv who says he is broadcasting it there tonight. Just look for the UFC symbol thats his channel.

link?

I somehow managed to get Silva at -115 at mandalay bay....it was -115 for hendo too....sooo sick.

Oh well, instead of trying to watch some shitty Justin TV broadcast I went to the local bar that charges $5 cover to watch - and they do 24oz $4 beer specials. Can't go wrong with that. I got 5 fights out of 6 right(shoulda bet), very surprised herring beat congo. But otherwise went as expected. Good stuff. Excited about next couple cards.

Silva has to move to 205.

wow.

Herring looked a lot better than I thought, and kongo looked 100x worse than I thought. he didn't really try to kick or knee, he tried to take it down where he sucks every second....terribl terrible gameplan imo, and even then he got a split decision, guaranteed if it stayed standing he wins....sigh.

I could only bet 3 fights on this card here in vegas and it's the first time in UFC where I bet all fav's....except for the fact that Silva's line was the same as Hendo's.....anyway Silva looked amazing again, he's too good, who does front kicks to the face and weird shit like that? I think he has to fight GSP if GSP wins vs Serra, I don't know what weight class but they could certainly agree on something. I ended up winning on the 3 fights, after taking Leben and Silva.

I think Silva is a little to big GSP. Maybe he could do what Hendo did in pride and try to become the champ at 185 and 205 simultaneusly. Right now I think I would take Silva over Rampage.

agreed

SILVA > RAMPAGE

I'll come back w/a full trip report later...but as for now I have to go chill with the Champ

The fight went how I expected when it hit the ground. Herring is very good at scrambling and his BJJ is fairly decent for the most part and I knew it would be much better than Kongo's. It's kind of hard to tell how the stand-up would go considering most of the fight was on the ground, but Herring did crack him a few times pretty good and that might have been why Kongo wanted to take the fight to the ground.

GSP has no chance against Silva imo. He is not as good a wrestler as Dan Henderson and would be much smaller than Silva too. Even if he did get the fight to the ground, he wouldn't be able to do much there. Silva is just better striking and on the ground and I think he would crush GSP.

Silva has basically wiped out the 185 division, but I'm not sure going to 205 is the best choice. 20 lbs is huge and he would be small for the division. Right now, he's the P4P king and is just looking awesome. It's not just that he wins, but he absolutely destroys his opponents and leaves no doubt he won the fight. A re-match with Okami is probably the fight that makes the most sense next, given that Okami has a DQ win over Silva. I would like Silva in a fight against Rampage at 205 as well based on the way he took apart Hendo.

dbl post

I wouldn't, and here's why. Hendo barely came in at a heavy 205 for his fight with Rampage and Rampage has cut a good amount to make 205. So, lets say that Rampage is fighting at 217, what would Silva be fighting at, 195? Is that reasonable, especially considering that a lot of the brazilians aren't used to cutting a lot of weight to make weight for fights and then putting that weight back on

Rampage has banged with some serious guys in their prime and has had some serious wins.

It's a bad comparison as Rampage could easily walk into that fight 25 lbs heavier which would present serious problems for silva.

Let us not forget how the 1st round went for Silva in that Hendo did dominate and caused a good amount of damage. It took a well executed choke to tap Hendo out with not much time left in the round(which does show Silva's BJJ skills).

In no way am I taking away from Silva at all as he is clearly the best PfP fighter in the world, but asking him to jump up a level and fight a fantasy fight where he'd be giving up a lot of weight is a bit much IMO

loooool The Chron's addition is perfect

Also, where can I watch replays of the ppv fights from last night? I have the UFC on Demand subscription but they don't have them up...

http://mmafightvideos.blogspot.com/

It's been awhile since I've posted.

I decided not to bet any of the fights this last weekend. I just had too much going on, and couldn't focus on it the way I needed to. I did watch the fights though, so I will talk about that.

Hmm, I guess I'll just talk about the two main events.

Kongo and Herring both looked pretty good imo. I thought it was a close fight, but Herring pulled out the win in the end.

Kongo is a beast. That guy has some amazing skills. I see him turning into one of the best fighters out there when he loses a bit of his ego and continues to work on his ground game. I was impressed with what he was able to do, however I was obv confused that he didn't try and keep the fight standing. I can see two reasons for that. Possibly Herring proved to be too hard of a striker for him. And he is training with Rampage and has been working on his wrestling a lot, so his natural instincts were confused a bit. Not sure what happened there. But I see a tremendous amount of potential.

Herring looks much improved. I've said this before, and I think JC mentioned it earlier. But a training camp makes all the difference in the world. He is working with Rob Kaman (sp) and has worked with Mark Laimon (sp) in the past. So his camp is much better than one would think. Herring's conditioning seemed to be great. He struggled at times. If you give both fighters a year to train, I pick Kongo to win hands down. But he was the better fighter all around on this night.

Silva vs. Henderson

Henderson is one of the best first round fighters I have ever seen. He does a great job of dominating. I have no clue what happens to him after that. Honestly.....wtf. Not that I really care, but he just seems to lose it after the first round. And I know the guy is in great shape. Just kind of boggles my mind.

I said many months ago that it would take a very strong wrestler to beat Silva. That was my ideal oppoent for him. Henderson is just that, but Silva walked right through him.

Silva is a beast, and is great for the sport. He always shows a tremendous amount of class. I have the utmost respect for him. I don't see anyone beating him for a long time. Okami would be about two classes below Silva at this point. If they have to find someone to fight him next, they might have to look at other organizations. Frank Shamrock in his prime would have been a good opponent for Silva. Not to be confused with Ken.

Random thoughts.

Imo GSP is as good of a pound for pound fighter as Silva. It bothers me when people say that Silva is the best pound for pound fighter in the world. I think that GSP is so ridiculously talented and improved it's unreal. They both should be considered the best pound for pound right now.

The lines are way off on the undercards. I know that people get screwed because so and so is -400 and his opponent is +260, etc. So it makes it seem like there is no point in betting. When I see a lot of these guys come in as dogs, they are almost always pretty close to even money. This happened to be a card where the favorites won. At least from what I saw on PPV. But even the "dogs" looked like they were just about even money for the most part. I can't get over how lopsided these lines are. Believe I'm not complaining, but it's pretty spooky.

Doesn't everything eventually get skewed when irrational people are involved? These lines are not set "accurately" based on a fighters chances to win. The money is always going to be put on the well known guy if there is a large publicity gap.

Agreed. I just have to wonder who is creating these lines.

Anderson Silva...the best pound for pound fighter in the world!


Koscheck said: “He’s a bad dude. I don’t want to fight him.”

regardless of who is making the lines one thing is for certain, the weak lines won't continue for ever so those of you 'in the know' had better take advantage while you can.
'

Here's a .gif of the fight for anyone who missed it.

Anyone see any value in the dog here? Meh he has got as much chance as anyone else in the division. Probally will be Okami next then Bisbing(if he wins his next fight). After the Hendo win it is apparent it will take a lucky punch to beat him. If thats the case maybe Leben gets a second chance to get destroyed sometime down the line.

The strength difference between the 2 is obviously a concern and I mentioned in the same post that Silva stepping up 20 lbs might not be the best choice out there for him. However, if he was to fight Rampage at 205, I just can't bet against him either. Silva trains with top notch guys at 205 and above in the Nog brothers and Machida, so he is used to fighting bigger guys.

Hendo did not dominate that first round at all. He ate a few good shots while standing and was able to get a body lock to take Silva down. He ended up in Silva's half guard and pinned Silva on his side for a good 3 minutes while inflicting basically zero damage. Those hammer fists weren't going to bother Silva at all. Dan won the round based on just control, but it was far from dominant.

The choke was set-up by Silva's striking. He hurt Hendo many times in the 2nd round and we all know how good Dan's chin is. If he can hurt Hendo, then we know he can hurt Rampage too if he catches him right.

Hendo and Rampage are very similar fighters. Rampage is bigger and stronger and Hendo probably has better technique. They have basically the same style though and after seeing Silva destroy Hendo, I can see Silva being able to do the same with Rampage.

Ego was not a problem for Kongo in the fight, his technique is just awful. He was just powering his way out of positions as opposed to technique. I'm sure he's been training his ground, but it's going to take some time before he has a reasonable ground game. I just don't really understand Kongo's game plan in this fight, it makes no sense to try and take the fight where you're weakest. Herring looked the same as he always does, but with a slightly better gas tank. I'm pretty disappointed he didn't try harder to finish the fight actually. Those knees to the body were nice, but not really enough to finish a fight.

MMA has evolved far ahead of when Frank Shamrock was in his prime. Silva would crush Shamrock in a fight now or when he was in his prime. Shamrock is just a guy that does a lot of talking, but doesn't step up and take the tough fights people want to see.

I'm a big GSP fan as well, but I don't see where he has made these huge improvements. Yes, he outwrestled Kos, but he couldn't finish him on the ground. He dominated Hughes, but Hughes is basically tailor made for GSP. The reason why Anderson Silva is on another level than everyone else P4P is because of the way he has won his fights. He hasn't just won his fights, he's annihilated everyone in front of him. Everything GSP does, Silva does better wrestling aside. Regardless, a GSP-Silva fight doesn't make a lot of sense right now considering GSP doesn't even have the title at 170 right now and there are also plenty of worth challengers waiting in the wings. I'd like to see GSP beat Serra, Fitch and a re-match with BJ before he steps in there with Silva. Personally, I don't think he gets past BJ.

My friends and I may be going to the Coleman-Lesnar fight in Minnesota in August. Any idea what decent tickets would run? I hear you can't get any without being a VIP...?

Ego is a problem for Kongo in every fight. There is a difference between confidence and ego.

I disagree about Frank Shamrock. He was constantly evolving as a fighter. He beat Baroni on EliteXC and he got disqualified for knees to the head against Renzo Gracie on EliteXC. Right now I think he is past his prime, due to injuries etc. But if anyone thought about evolving with a sport it was him. And I think in his prime he would have been a good match for Silva. But this is not worth discussing at this point.

You can't compare the welterweight division to the middleweight division. They are two different leagues completely. The welterweight division is full of incredible fighters. And the middleweight division is weak. I thought that Marquardt had a good chance against Silva, and I felt that Henderson could win as well. Obviously both were crushed. Silva and Machida would be a good fight at this point. Machida is not a huge light heavy weight.

GSP is a very gifted fighter, and so is BJ Penn. I would bet that GSP beats BJ Penn again if they ever fought though. I believe that GSP has a much tougher division to contend with. GSP is a work in progress. But the man is unreal to watch. He is so sharp and quick.

As far as GSP improving.......his striking, wrestling, BJJ, timing, etc have all improved. He is able to neutralize and dominate people like nobody else can. The mere fact that he was able to outwrestle Hughes and Koscheck is a mark of it's own. It's not like Silva came in and outwrestled Henderson, whereas GSP did just that against his competition. Obv I'm not taking anything away from Silva.

There is a difference between confidence and ego, but I'm not sure how it comes into play when Kongo fights. His gameplan to take Herring down and get top position was probably because he was concerned with getting taken down himself. Let's face it, Kongo has some terrible takedown defense. Fighters not even known for their takedowns have been able to get Kongo on his back with relative ease. I think he hasn't been matched up with any top notch BJJ fighters with good reason.

Frank Shamrock was always a great athlete, but overrated fighter. He won most of his fights in the early to mid 90's before MMA ever evolved. I give him some credit for being a pioneer of sorts, but one of the main reasons he won the fights he did is because he cross-trained when other fighters didn't. The fighters he fought in his time were mostly 1 dimensional. He also talks a bunch of smack, but doesn't back any of it up, which is the main reason why I can't stand him. The fact of the matter remains he did not fight many great fighters. His best wins in his career are over Funaki and Bas and TIto both early in their careers. Beating Baroni basically says nothing considering Baroni isn't all that good of a fighter. He was getting controlled by Renzo before the DQ. I also expect Cung Le to knock his ass out.

Machida and Silva won't be happening, because they're in the same camp. It would be an interesting fight though, because both are black belts and have very technical striking. They're almost mirror matches when it comes to skills, but they have different fighting styles. Silva is more explosive and powerful and throws with bad intentions whereas Machida looks to outpoint his opponents. At this point, the only really legit challenge at 185 is Matt Lindland. I still think Silva wins though. Filho would be another interesting fight, but that won't happen either, because they train together as well.

Of course, the middleweight division is not as stacked as the Welterweight division, but you can't hold that against Silva when ranking him. Is there a fighter in the WW division as good as Hendo P4P? I don't think so. I honestly just don't see where all this improvement is coming from. His wrestling has always been a strength of his and that is the one area that we have seen some improvement in. His BJJ game is at a good Brown Belt level, but he is not top of the food chain in that area. He has never really submitted fighters that have even a decent ground game. His striking is good, but again is not top notch either. He's never knocked out a striker either. His striking is fairly sharp and pin point, but he got his ass kicked in the stand-up with BJ in their fight. GSP is a very well rounded fighter that has no real weaknesses, but has no glaring strengths either other than his wrestling and of course athleticism. If you look at his dominant performances though, they have been against strong wrestlers that do not have very good striking. He has yet to dominate a well rounded fighter like Silva has been able to do against guys like Franklin, Hendo and Marquardt.

This is no disrespect to GSP, because he is one of my favourite fighters, but Silva is just on another level than him. GSP certainly has the potential to one day be the P4P king, but until he starts walking through top competition like Silva has been doing, he is not there yet. Another thing is I question his heart and toughness. He tapped against Hughes with 1 second left in the round and he tapped against Serra from strikes. I'm not sure how fair it is to criticize him for that, but it certainly makes me question how much he would go through to win a fight.

Shamrock did face fighters that cross trained, that was the whole point of Pancrase. Did he fight against some one dimensional fighters, yes he did, but all of the top Pancrase guys cross trained. His win over Bas was after Bas had been in Pancrase for a bit and Masa Funaki at that time was one of the best submission experts in the world.

It's hard to compare as the game was a much different game back then and even if he didn't have his spat with Dana White, he'd be past his prime now due to being in a ton of fights because of the Pancrase schedule

also, Frank steamrolled Tito Ortiz easily in '99, and just beat a pretty good Phil Baroni this past summer and made it look easy, yes he's old but in tip-top shape & even though will prob never fight in UFC could give most of UFC 185#'rs fits

Not sure if any of you guys have Yahoo as your home page. But Anderson Silva has been featured on the cover about 3-4 times in the last two weeks.

It's nice to see the UFC finally hitting the mainstream a bit more. And having a guy like Anderson Silva is great for PR.

GSP is pretty good too.

The more mainstream it gets the less money we can make off betting amiright? Won't they make the lines super tough? One of my new neighbors is a pro sports bettor and he was pretty shocked by what I told him on UFC, I guess he doesn't bet fights....and he says Football/basketball lines are nearly impossible to beat. I don't know much about sportsbetting so I might just be spewing common knowledge but it was def. interesting talking about all this stuff.

There are pros and cons to the UFC becoming more mainstream.

I don't know a lot about sports betting. But, here are a few things to consider. A team gets a lot more exposure than a fighter does, so that gives handicappers more information. In addition, there are a lot more things that you can bet on in a sporting event. Super Bowl bets are endless. There are only a few things that you could realistically bet on in the UFC. I suppose that some people could try and get creative, ie: knock out, submission, length of fight, etc. But most sporting events and MMA fights are vastly different. The lines could obviously change based on popularity of the UFC. But that might not be a bad thing depending upon how you look at it. Some people could end up being even bigger favorites than they are supposed to be. One huge bonus of the UFC becoming more popular is the amount of money a person can bet on a fight. Right now, it's pretty limited. If the sport becomes more popular, Vegas will have no choice but to accept more action. Only time will tell. I think everything will work out in the end.

Have him teach you to be Haralabos Voulgaris Jr. imo.

I'm not a pro sports bettor by any means, but from what I hear/read the NFL is nearly unbeatable from a pure handicapping prospective. There are people who profit from shopping lines/arbitrage etc.

I know Haralabos bets the NBA and apparently crushes, but rumors are that he puts in an INSANE amount of work. I would be really interested to see his methods b/c I've heard they are super impressive.

College basketball is probably one of the easiest sports to beat because there are so many teams. Somebody could focus on a smaller D-1 conference and essentially know more about the teams and the players than the handicappers do. The same could be said for College Football.

The people who really crush sports betting are the syndicates. I don't know all of the inner-workings of these groups but it has always intrigued me.



As for UFC betting, I think handicappers will get better at making lines as time progresses. However, mma is a sport that is extremely unique and provides a true "unknown" factor. There are countless variables that are extremely difficult to account for in a betting line.


I really enjoy handicapping mma as a hobby, and the other day I was thinking about trying to come up with a statistical model to handicap fights. I might try to do it just for fun and see how it works. It appears that these people have already started one:

http://www.mmaforecaster.com/

http://www.sherdog.net/forums/showthread.php?t=737251

I haven't looked into this that deeply but its interesting to see that people are starting to take mma betting very seriously.

I looked more into that model, its an interesting concept but very flawed. They have the system sometimes giving out 98 and 99% favorites which straight up can't happen in mma. Unless the match was the one JC photoshopped earlier. (sorry Spider you got no shot bud)

Its also sooo tough to come up w/an accurate statistical model for mma b/c of all the different variables such as style matchups, coaches/teams etc.

It's funny, his name came up...and he said that there's probably no shot that Haralabos is +EV in sportsbetting, he probably ran good. This guy works with a team, like 4 or 5 of them, he's 23 and they're loaded...it's kinda sick actually. He told me that no one can really be +EV if they're focusing on one single sport, like Haralabos did, apparently the NBA lines are so tough to beat that you rarely find edges and if you do they're very very small so the variance is ridic. We talked to him on a saturday and asked him to give us tips on one game or whatever and he said "we placed over 100 bets today, so any 1 tip for 1 game I give you can be vvv swingy".

When you think about the UFC, we've often lost 1 fight where we thought we'd for sure crush, but how often do we lose on the entire card? VERY RARELY. I think we've already established that most of the value is in the prelim fights, but sometimes you can find sick value in ME's, like w/ rampage, Serra vs GSP 1, Gonzaga v Cro-Cop etc.. I think the key to betting UFC is in the volume, I think there's probably a ton of money to be made in the smaller shows like IFL, WEC, HDNet, etc. and those are fights we've been overlooking.

Those stat models you are talking about are pretty much useless though...like you said it's insanely hard to have any accuracy in that.

Also Steve, maybe I misunderstood your last comment, but I thought you could already bet w/e you wanted on UFC?

Yuck! its Rashad Evans who Liddel is fighting at 85. If Liddel cant beat him its time to go.

no that can't be??? isn't Rashad fighting in the Tito card in May? I thought it was going to be Shogun for sure.

Also, if he does fight rashad, I can't see liddel losing that fight, his TD defense is too good and his standup is way better he'd insta neutralize Rashad like he did Tito IMO.