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KDawgCometh
QUOTE (Actuary @ Sunday, February 3rd, 2008, 1:52 AM) *
Whooooooooooooooo!

What a night.

Brock really impressed me. Honestly, I would pick him to win next time. But that's the thing with a world class BJJ, they may look beaten and bam..you're tappin.

Nog, yeah... that was sweet. I was seriously thinking about taking you up on your vino bet, Keith. I felt Tim take down defense would keep it going along with Nog realtive unfamiliarity with Octagon. But I had not seen him in Pride as often as you had. I didn't like when Jowe said "then Tim made a mistake and Nog submitted him" IMO, Nog was perfect with the leg tackle (funny I said to my wife, "Nog just needs to tackle Tims legs, not try to wrap him up high. And sure enough 2 seconds later, he goes real low and scissos the legs to take him down) and then keping Tim close to get the sweep. From the top there was so much to think about for Tim, "Is he going to arm bar me? Anaconda Me? Kimora? Americana? .. cool I'll spin out... oooops ..TAP TAP TAP". It's hard to call it a mistake when you're beaten by perfection.

How about Tim Boetsch. Freaking slung David Heatth into the fence like a rag doll. Dude has some striking skills. Front kick anyone? Oh, and he's a wrestler apparently. Good showing for 10 days notice. Look for him again.

Nate looked good. To me, Horn seems like that awesome guy in the gym who can spar with the best of them and tell you what the best move would be. But against top competition, he doesn't have the strength/skill combos to execute/finish in the heat of battle. 100+ fights and you get caught in a standing guillotine ? wtf.

So many good fights coming up in the next Fight Night and UFCs.

I really think the two HW fights tonight did a lot to raise the relatively weak division. Lesnar showed he can be a force and will be exciting to watch. Tim showed signs of old self. Although, if he made a mistake it was not hitting hard enough and maybe trying to out point Nog. But against someone so good you can't let them survive. They will catch you. Truthfully though, I don't think Tim was not trying to KO Nog. Nog is just tough, obv.

great. well worth $45.


ok. I know I did not anounce earlier but I guess you can trust me. We bet on 3 fights, Our choices in bold

8 units Nate -270 vs Jeremy (not sure, he ended up +250 but Nate ended up -325, I picked about 30 mins before fights)
5 units Lesnar -165 vs Mir +135 (Mirs line ended same, so I'll assume Lesnar was ~165 prefight as he finshed at -165)
7 units Nog -160 vs Tim +130

Won: 14.09 units. Yeah us.

My wife picked the Nog fight. I thought the bet was Tim; but she said that was the one she felt best about.
I'm old school UFC fan and am always glad to see the submission game remain totally viable. You can train to nuetralize some people's submission game; but vs BJ Penn or Nog or a focused Mir..well.. not so much.



I wish you had taken me up on the bet icon_biggrin.gif . It takes a lot to beat nog, and I based a lot of my opinion of the fight on teh fact that he has gone up against guys fairly taller then him in Semmy Schilit and Josh Barnett and has come out the winner, and I believe that both of those guys are better fighters then slyvia. It was a matter of Nog figuring out in the ring how best to beat Slyvia. SLyvia didn't make any mistakes, it's just impossible to defend against what Nog brings as he uses submissions to set up the one or two that he really wants and he's so slick at hiding his intentions that it throws fighters off and gives him the opening he wants. You just can't defend against that


QUOTE (PrtyPSux @ Sunday, February 3rd, 2008, 3:45 AM) *
Anyone think the Griffin/Tibau decision was obscenely rigged? Or was it just me and my half of the Arena?



L
O
L




the griffin fight was all about where you were sitting IMO as far as the judges perspective goes. Tibau didn't do anything from the top though and Griffin seemed to be connecting with more power punches

What's lol about it, Nog has been hit like that before and hasn't been KO'd. He's gone up against a in his Prime Cro Cop and didn't get KO'd and went up against Semmy Schilit and didn't get KO'd. Both guys are much better strikers then Slyvia(especially schilit who has won the past 3 K-1 GPs, something that no one has ever done, not even Andy Hug, peter aerts, or Ernesto Hoost has done)
HoosierAlum
Went to the fights w/JC and Steve, and I thought it was a really entertaining card despite the fact that I lost 3.5 units.

Here are my thoughts:

-From our vantage point it appeared that Tibau was possibly screwed. There was no way imo that this was 30-27, I thought Tibau clearly won the 2nd. I was really shocked when they announced a unanimous 30-27 for Griffin. I will have to watch this fight again though before I can say w/100% accuracy.

-I bet on Brock and I think that he/I took a pretty bad beat in this fight. Mazegatti's stoppage was beyond terrible imo. I feel pretty much the same as Performity on 2+2 when analyzing this fight:

"Lesnar gets absolutely robbed in his debut, in my opinion. For starters, when is the last time you saw an initial grazing punch to the back of the head that the fighter turns in to get called as a stoppage without a warning? First, Mir turned in to that that shot, which should automatically mean it’s a legal blow. Second, if anything, Lesnar should have been issued a warning. It REALLY seemed like Maz was stepping in to call the fight, or even thinking that Mir was trying to give up, and when it was apparent that wasn’t the case it seemed like he took the point just as a way to cover. Very, very poor decision in my opinion. While there’s no certainty that Lesnar would have won the fight from there, I think he was overwhelming Mir early and had a good chance to finish the fight if not for the bullsh*t taking of the point."

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=116503

Even though I lost it was a really fun and exciting fight. If I had to bet it again at the same price I might still bet Brock.


-The only bet I won on the evening was the Nog fight, but I would have been much happier being on the other side, especially given the price. Sylvia picked him apart in the first 2 rounds jabbing the piss out of him and controlling the match. Basically he had the fight won if he didn't do something stupid which was getting away from his gameplan and letting Nog get in closer and allowing him to do what he does best...



Next up is UFC 82, a card I've been looking forward to for some time. We get to see the pound for pound best in the world ANDERSON THE SPIDER SILVA!

jayboogie
It was a pretty good card overall. Nog/Sylvia went exactly how I thought it would. Sylvia didn't really make a mistake, that was just a beautiful sweep and transition from armlock to guillotine by Nog. Sylvia's reach and counter-punching makes just about everyone look bad. He also has very good takedown defense too, which makes for boring fights typically. Nog just has a ton of heart and amazing recuperating abilities. Mir/Lesnar went how it was expected as well. Lesnar didn't show much skill, but he's just huge and will give most a tough time. That was very sloppy getting caught in that leg lock, his foot should have never been in that position. Griffin definitely won the fight against Tibau. I was surprised Tibau got the fight to the ground as often as he did and even more surprised, he couldn't keep Tyson down at all. Tyson landed the cleaner and harder shots and deserved the win, but I felt Tibau won Round 2 as well.

Almeida is a contender at 185, he looked pretty good on his feet and set up his shot very nicely and his BJJ is top notch of course. Marquardt looked alright too, would be a interesting to see a re-match between him and Almeida.
PrtyPSux
QUOTE (KDawgCometh @ Sunday, February 3rd, 2008, 4:02 PM) *
What's lol about it, Nog has been hit like that before and hasn't been KO'd. He's gone up against a in his Prime Cro Cop and didn't get KO'd and went up against Semmy Schilit and didn't get KO'd. Both guys are much better strikers then Slyvia(especially schilit who has won the past 3 K-1 GPs, something that no one has ever done, not even Andy Hug, peter aerts, or Ernesto Hoost has done)


I think it's LOL to say that there's no shot that Silvia ever knocks Nog out considering he was out of it for about 5-10 seconds it seemed when he got knocked down, in fact I think that a Pre-UFC fight Night Herb Dean would have stopped the fight. I think silvia not putting him away was his mistake, it seems he could have easily avoided Nog's guard when he went down for the kill...As far as the fight goes, there's no way Nog was +EV at -170 not even at -140, I don't even think it's arguable.

QUOTE (jayboogie @ Sunday, February 3rd, 2008, 10:04 PM) *
It was a pretty good card overall. Nog/Sylvia went exactly how I thought it would. Sylvia didn't really make a mistake, that was just a beautiful sweep and transition from armlock to guillotine by Nog. Sylvia's reach and counter-punching makes just about everyone look bad. He also has very good takedown defense too, which makes for boring fights typically. Nog just has a ton of heart and amazing recuperating abilities. Mir/Lesnar went how it was expected as well. Lesnar didn't show much skill, but he's just huge and will give most a tough time. That was very sloppy getting caught in that leg lock, his foot should have never been in that position. Griffin definitely won the fight against Tibau. I was surprised Tibau got the fight to the ground as often as he did and even more surprised, he couldn't keep Tyson down at all. Tyson landed the cleaner and harder shots and deserved the win, but I felt Tibau won Round 2 as well.

Almeida is a contender at 185, he looked pretty good on his feet and set up his shot very nicely and his BJJ is top notch of course. Marquardt looked alright too, would be a interesting to see a re-match between him and Almeida.


I think Sylvia did make a mistake, but not in the way he got caught, Nog's technique was def very sick. I think his mistake was not getting up immediately when he had top position like he had been. I think he had a moment of overconfidence since he was crushing, and that caused him to stay on the ground longer than he should have, his game plan for the first two rounds wa flawless. I also think he bitched out by tapping way too fast, it's a championship fight ffs go to sleep trying to get out of it, it's a fcking guillotine not something insanely difficult to slip out of. As the fight was going on, after Nog got up from getting knocked down, I was very very worried about rounds 2 and 3, I would have felt a lot safer if it got to the 4th and 5th round since Tim had much more experience in those and probably would have played it safe enough to win the decision. Not taking anything away from Nog, he def has a huge heart and is really good on the ground but I think Sylvia lost himself the fight by not sticking to his plan.

About the Tibau fight, it's funny that you thought he won round 2 because I really thought that round 3 was a lock for him and that round 1 was up in the air with three take downs and a few good punches. Literally the whole half of the Arena was booing Griffin and cheering Tibau when he was walking out shaking his head, and he was clearly not a crowd fav coming into the fight.

From what I've read on different forums and heard people say everyone is saying "Lesnar looked really well" or "Mir got lucky, he was about to get KO'd" etc...Lesnar actually looked worse than I expected him to, I knew he'd be able to take mir down at will and I'd knew he'd probably hurt him a little but I thought he'd actually look like he knew what he was doing when he took Mir down, and he didn't. To me he just looked like a big ape that had no clue what the rules were or what technique was (he also sounds very stupid in every interview which I assumed meant that he probably didn't even train to defend subs), I compared it to something like Royce Gracie vs a guy like Kimo in the early UFC's where huge dudes would still beat on Royce's face but were eventually going to get there arm ripped out. I don't think that Mir got lucky, I think that he was just waiting for a good opportunity and risked getting hammer fisted a few times before he could find it, it's kinda like saying Fedor got lucky vs Hong Man because hong took him down twice and left fedor's face all bruised up with like 5 shots. After watching the fight online, I do think the point deduction was a mistake but I don't know if standing them up was a mistake or not, I mean if a dude like nate diaz hammer fists someone 3 times in the back of the head super fast I can see them just giving a warning and leaving them in the same position, but a guy like brock could really knock people the fck out with hammers to the back of the face, which could have totally loosened Mir up and allowed Brock to mount or something. I honestly don't know where you would draw the line as a ref, I think a warning is the right way to go but I also think that standing them up and letting Mir recover is also a correct decision, kinda like if you got hit in the balls. Either way I think Lesnar was too sloppy, adrenaline rushed, and unaware of a lot of factors to be able to win the fight. It was like a big body builder street fighting vs a BJJ guy. I also thought that Mir looked worse on his feet than I thought he would, and Lesnar looked better than I thought, I still think that Mir is a favorite in that fight and if it happened again I wouldn't bet Brock unless I got good odds.

That said, I'd take Lesnar against a lot of other heavyweights, I think he's just too big and strong to deal with if you're not an absolute badass in BJJ, he'll take anyone down at will and once he learns how to posture and punch effectively from the ground, how to mount, defend subs and a few chokes I don't think there's many guys that can handle him. I think he's a great and exciting addition to the division and if he dedicates himself to learning MMA he could probably be champion, he seems dumb as a rock though so I don't know how much he'll be willing to learn.
HoosierAlum
The lines are up on the 82 card:

08:30 PM 321 Anderson Silva -151
322 Dan Henderson +141
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Heavyweights
Sat 3/1 Cheick Kongo vs Heath Herring
07:45 PM 501 Cheick Kongo -160
502 Heath Herring +150
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Middleweights
Sat 3/1 Yushin Okami vs Evan Tanner
07:30 PM 503 Yushin Okami -202
504 Evan Tanner +182
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Welterweights
Sat 3/1 Josh Koscheck vs Dustin Hazelett
07:00 PM 505 Josh Koscheck -411
506 Dustin Hazelett +371


Meh kinda disappointed in the Silva/Henderson line, it looks like they got it right. Its already -160 on 2dimes and hasn't been released on Bodog yet. Seems like there won't be much value betting either way w/that line, I will still make a smallish bet on Silva though bc of my obsession.

As for the other fights I'm going to get floor seats for this card so I'm going to try to put in heavy research before making my bets. Apparently Okami opened at -130 which would be an insanely good bet, I'm not surprised ppl pounded that line hard enough to get to -202 (220 on Bodog).

It doesn't look like there is a ton of value w/these fights as is....what you guys think?
KDawgCometh
QUOTE (HoosierAlum @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 12:19 PM) *
The lines are up on the 82 card:

08:30 PM 321 Anderson Silva -151
322 Dan Henderson +141
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Heavyweights
Sat 3/1 Cheick Kongo vs Heath Herring
07:45 PM 501 Cheick Kongo -160
502 Heath Herring +150
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Middleweights
Sat 3/1 Yushin Okami vs Evan Tanner
07:30 PM 503 Yushin Okami -202
504 Evan Tanner +182
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Welterweights
Sat 3/1 Josh Koscheck vs Dustin Hazelett
07:00 PM 505 Josh Koscheck -411
506 Dustin Hazelett +371


Meh kinda disappointed in the Silva/Henderson line, it looks like they got it right. Its already -160 on 2dimes and hasn't been released on Bodog yet. Seems like there won't be much value betting either way w/that line, I will still make a smallish bet on Silva though bc of my obsession.

As for the other fights I'm going to get floor seats for this card so I'm going to try to put in heavy research before making my bets. Apparently Okami opened at -130 which would be an insanely good bet, I'm not surprised ppl pounded that line hard enough to get to -202 (220 on Bodog).

It doesn't look like there is a ton of value w/these fights as is....what you guys think?



those look to be the only lines that are worth betting right now
Jadaki
QUOTE (KDawgCometh @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 2:59 PM) *
those look to be the only lines that are worth betting right now


I like most the underdogs on that card for betting purposes too.
jayboogie
QUOTE (PrtyPSux @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 12:30 AM) *
I think it's LOL to say that there's no shot that Silvia ever knocks Nog out considering he was out of it for about 5-10 seconds it seemed when he got knocked down, in fact I think that a Pre-UFC fight Night Herb Dean would have stopped the fight. I think silvia not putting him away was his mistake, it seems he could have easily avoided Nog's guard when he went down for the kill...As far as the fight goes, there's no way Nog was +EV at -170 not even at -140, I don't even think it's arguable.
I think Sylvia did make a mistake, but not in the way he got caught, Nog's technique was def very sick. I think his mistake was not getting up immediately when he had top position like he had been. I think he had a moment of overconfidence since he was crushing, and that caused him to stay on the ground longer than he should have, his game plan for the first two rounds wa flawless. I also think he bitched out by tapping way too fast, it's a championship fight ffs go to sleep trying to get out of it, it's a fcking guillotine not something insanely difficult to slip out of. As the fight was going on, after Nog got up from getting knocked down, I was very very worried about rounds 2 and 3, I would have felt a lot safer if it got to the 4th and 5th round since Tim had much more experience in those and probably would have played it safe enough to win the decision. Not taking anything away from Nog, he def has a huge heart and is really good on the ground but I think Sylvia lost himself the fight by not sticking to his plan.

About the Tibau fight, it's funny that you thought he won round 2 because I really thought that round 3 was a lock for him and that round 1 was up in the air with three take downs and a few good punches. Literally the whole half of the Arena was booing Griffin and cheering Tibau when he was walking out shaking his head, and he was clearly not a crowd fav coming into the fight.

From what I've read on different forums and heard people say everyone is saying "Lesnar looked really well" or "Mir got lucky, he was about to get KO'd" etc...Lesnar actually looked worse than I expected him to, I knew he'd be able to take mir down at will and I'd knew he'd probably hurt him a little but I thought he'd actually look like he knew what he was doing when he took Mir down, and he didn't. To me he just looked like a big ape that had no clue what the rules were or what technique was (he also sounds very stupid in every interview which I assumed meant that he probably didn't even train to defend subs), I compared it to something like Royce Gracie vs a guy like Kimo in the early UFC's where huge dudes would still beat on Royce's face but were eventually going to get there arm ripped out. I don't think that Mir got lucky, I think that he was just waiting for a good opportunity and risked getting hammer fisted a few times before he could find it, it's kinda like saying Fedor got lucky vs Hong Man because hong took him down twice and left fedor's face all bruised up with like 5 shots. After watching the fight online, I do think the point deduction was a mistake but I don't know if standing them up was a mistake or not, I mean if a dude like nate diaz hammer fists someone 3 times in the back of the head super fast I can see them just giving a warning and leaving them in the same position, but a guy like brock could really knock people the fck out with hammers to the back of the face, which could have totally loosened Mir up and allowed Brock to mount or something. I honestly don't know where you would draw the line as a ref, I think a warning is the right way to go but I also think that standing them up and letting Mir recover is also a correct decision, kinda like if you got hit in the balls. Either way I think Lesnar was too sloppy, adrenaline rushed, and unaware of a lot of factors to be able to win the fight. It was like a big body builder street fighting vs a BJJ guy. I also thought that Mir looked worse on his feet than I thought he would, and Lesnar looked better than I thought, I still think that Mir is a favorite in that fight and if it happened again I wouldn't bet Brock unless I got good odds.

That said, I'd take Lesnar against a lot of other heavyweights, I think he's just too big and strong to deal with if you're not an absolute badass in BJJ, he'll take anyone down at will and once he learns how to posture and punch effectively from the ground, how to mount, defend subs and a few chokes I don't think there's many guys that can handle him. I think he's a great and exciting addition to the division and if he dedicates himself to learning MMA he could probably be champion, he seems dumb as a rock though so I don't know how much he'll be willing to learn.


I think you get a different view being there live versus seeing it on TV. On tv, you get to see things more clearly and what lands and doesn't land. The takedowns in my opinion don't get much credit unless you do something with it. If you take someone down and they get right back up, you shouldn't really be rewarded for that. I was really surprised that Tibau couldn't control Griffin's posture and allowed Tyson to just use his feet to kick Tibau off him and get right back up. Tyson busted him up with a lot of clean hard shots that if you watch on TV, I'm sure most would agree he won the fight.

The decision I actually didn't agree with is the K-Taro/Emerson fight. I felt Nakamura won Rounds 1&3. Round 1 was close, but I gave it to Nakamura because he hurt Emerson and knocked him down with the knee. Round 3 I felt was all Nakamura in my opinion with his takedowns and I felt he outstriked Emerson in that round as well.

Sylvia was trying to get up right after Nog pulled guard, but Nog just executed the sweep perfectly. It's not like Tim tried to do anything offensive while he was in Nog's half guard, he was trying to get out of there. When Tim tried to get up, Nog grabbed his left leg and brought him back to the ground and then he swept him. That guillotine was in tight and no chance of Tim getting out of that, so tapping right away or going to sleep would have made no difference, he had no chance of escaping. I don't think Nog was hurt that bad from that knockdown. He recovered right away and was in his guard trying to control Tim's posture. He was in much worst shape against Herring, Cro Cop, Sapp, Fedor and etc, so I was never concerned about him getting finished really. It's just the way Nog's fights go, it seems like he needs to get buzzed in a fight before he gets going.

It's hard to judge Lesnar's skills based on that 90 seconds. What you can get from the fight is that he's very athletic and strong. He's extremely fast for a guy his size and that's very rare and tough to deal with. He'll give just about any fighter problems from this alone. His technique will get better eventually and potentially could be a real force.
jayboogie
QUOTE (HoosierAlum @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 1:19 PM) *
The lines are up on the 82 card:

08:30 PM 321 Anderson Silva -151
322 Dan Henderson +141
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Heavyweights
Sat 3/1 Cheick Kongo vs Heath Herring
07:45 PM 501 Cheick Kongo -160
502 Heath Herring +150
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Middleweights
Sat 3/1 Yushin Okami vs Evan Tanner
07:30 PM 503 Yushin Okami -202
504 Evan Tanner +182
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Welterweights
Sat 3/1 Josh Koscheck vs Dustin Hazelett
07:00 PM 505 Josh Koscheck -411
506 Dustin Hazelett +371
Meh kinda disappointed in the Silva/Henderson line, it looks like they got it right. Its already -160 on 2dimes and hasn't been released on Bodog yet. Seems like there won't be much value betting either way w/that line, I will still make a smallish bet on Silva though bc of my obsession.

As for the other fights I'm going to get floor seats for this card so I'm going to try to put in heavy research before making my bets. Apparently Okami opened at -130 which would be an insanely good bet, I'm not surprised ppl pounded that line hard enough to get to -202 (220 on Bodog).

It doesn't look like there is a ton of value w/these fights as is....what you guys think?


Tanner might have some value at that line. There's always the question of how the layoff affects him, but he's never been the type to train all year round anyways, so I don't think it affects him much. Skillwise, he's right up there with the best in the division, so I give him a good shot of winning the fight.

Hendo usually looks like crap when he fights at middleweight. Maybe it's motivation issues fighting at a smaller weight class or he's just more well suited to fight at 205 for whatever reason. I just don't think Hendo can go 5 rounds with Silva without getting caught in something whether it's a punch, kick, knee or submission. I don't see Hendo being able to finish Silva, because he just isn't typically a finisher. Silva has a rock solid chin and other than Dan's right hand, he doesn't have anything else he can hurt Silva with.
CodyHartman
QUOTE (KDawgCometh @ Sunday, February 3rd, 2008, 9:02 AM) *
What's lol about it, Nog has been hit like that before and hasn't been KO'd. He's gone up against a in his Prime Cro Cop and didn't get KO'd and went up against Semmy Schilit and didn't get KO'd. Both guys are much better strikers then Slyvia(especially schilit who has won the past 3 K-1 GPs, something that no one has ever done, not even Andy Hug, peter aerts, or Ernesto Hoost has done)


Lets not forget that Fedor beat hte shit out of him both times they fought. Nog just got pummled by head shots and just got up like nothing had happened. He is in such great shape for his fights that he recovers quickly and can take a punch. Dont foget Herring caught him with a head kick that would put most out and as soon as he hit the deck he was looking up at Herring wating for the ground pummeling.

Nog may be the toughest fighter in MMA today.
CodyHartman
QUOTE (HoosierAlum @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 10:19 AM) *
The lines are up on the 82 card:

08:30 PM 321 Anderson Silva -151
322 Dan Henderson +141
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Heavyweights
Sat 3/1 Cheick Kongo vs Heath Herring
07:45 PM 501 Cheick Kongo -160
502 Heath Herring +150
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Middleweights
Sat 3/1 Yushin Okami vs Evan Tanner
07:30 PM 503 Yushin Okami -202
504 Evan Tanner +182
UFC 82 -Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH: Welterweights
Sat 3/1 Josh Koscheck vs Dustin Hazelett
07:00 PM 505 Josh Koscheck -411
506 Dustin Hazelett +371


OK I am dumb when it comes to sports betting. I understand points, but what do these numbers mean? I know this is sports betting 101 but for someone like me who doesnt bet sports i dont get it.

thanks
Vick12
QUOTE (CodyHartman @ Tuesday, February 5th, 2008, 12:14 PM) *
OK I am dumb when it comes to sports betting. I understand points, but what do these numbers mean? I know this is sports betting 101 but for someone like me who doesnt bet sports i dont get it.

thanks



I am sure others can explain it better... but basically...

+200 means if u wager $100 u win $200.

-200 means if u wager $200 u win $100.

I am sure there is a more mathmatical/complex way to do it...but I prefer easy math myslef so this is how I always do it!!!
BigLebowski
MMA Wagering 101
AimHigher
QUOTE (KDawgCometh @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 8:59 PM) *
those look to be the only lines that are worth betting right now


I agree, Kongo has no ground game (even crocop had him in mount) and Hendo has a solid chin and a style that may be problematic for Anderson. It wouldn't be bad to take either of these lines.
gatortom64
QUOTE (BigLebowski @ Tuesday, February 5th, 2008, 4:50 PM) *

<3 Lebowski. TYTYTY
steve7stud
So I'm finally getting around to my UFC report from last weekend. I'll start with who I bet.

Tibau
Sylvia
Mir
Marquardt
Almeida.

I also wanted to bet 4 other fights. I would have won 3 out of 4 from the undercard. And they were all dogs so I would have done well. But whatever.

Tibau- No way was that a unanymous decision. I haven't seen the fight on TV, but I was there. It looked like Tibau either won or it was a split decision. Tibau had about 6 take downs, Griffin the WRESTLER had 0. Everyone I talked to at the fight thought the fix was in on that. I was really angry.

Sylvia- He was doing great. The guy has no heart. I'm done with him.

Mir- Close fight imo. No clue what would have happened if the ref didn't stop the fight from illegal blows. It might have been premature stoppage for sure. I obviously was happy that Mir got the submission and that I locked up a win. Lesnar is a beast. Guy looks like a juggernaut. Not sure how good he will look without steroids though. He honestly looks way too big for a guy not to be on roids imo.

Marquardt- I got horrible odds on this one. But I just couldn't see him losing. Well, I could see him losing by a submission. On paper it was a bad bet. But I felt confident. Horn was ridiculously out of shape. To his credit he has never been knocked out and has a lot of fights under his belt. Probably more than anyone else out there, but he is a gamble. For those who watched the fight, JC made a good analogy. It was like Horn was KK and Marquardt was AA. Flop was blanks. Turn was a K and river was an Ace.

Almeida- Again I got poor odds. The guy pulled off a beautiful submission. Highlight reel material for sure.

The fight itself was a lot of fun. Of course Hoosier decides to bet everything the exact opposite of me. (When will they learn). Sadly he was sitting next to me, so he had to deal with my yelling and cheering.

My record in the UFC is great right now. I love going to these shows so much.

Again I want to thank those who gave help and suggestions along the way.

Spiderguard and Big Lebowski are still owed a one on one with me. JC and Adam. Haven't forgotten about that guys. We've all just been busy.
BigLebowski
QUOTE (steve7stud @ Friday, February 8th, 2008, 1:40 AM) *
Tibau- No way was that a unanymous decision. I haven't seen the fight on TV, but I was there. It looked like Tibau either won or it was a split decision. Tibau had about 6 take downs, Griffin the WRESTLER had 0. Everyone I talked to at the fight thought the fix was in on that. I was really angry.


jayboogie said it best with the quote below
No way Tibau won and I honestly was not surprised by the UD.

QUOTE (jayboogie @ Monday, February 4th, 2008, 6:08 PM) *
I think you get a different view being there live versus seeing it on TV. On tv, you get to see things more clearly and what lands and doesn't land. The takedowns in my opinion don't get much credit unless you do something with it. If you take someone down and they get right back up, you shouldn't really be rewarded for that. I was really surprised that Tibau couldn't control Griffin's posture and allowed Tyson to just use his feet to kick Tibau off him and get right back up. Tyson busted him up with a lot of clean hard shots that if you watch on TV, I'm sure most would agree he won the fight.


QUOTE (steve7stud @ Friday, February 8th, 2008, 1:40 AM) *
Sylvia- He was doing great. The guy has no heart. I'm done with him.


good decision--i thought he was more active in the Nog fight, but the guy fights not to lose...who wants to see that.

QUOTE (steve7stud @ Friday, February 8th, 2008, 1:40 AM) *
Marquardt- I got horrible odds on this one. But I just couldn't see him losing. Well, I could see him losing by a submission. On paper it was a bad bet. But I felt confident. Horn was ridiculously out of shape. To his credit he has never been knocked out and has a lot of fights under his belt. Probably more than anyone else out there, but he is a gamble. For those who watched the fight, JC made a good analogy. It was like Horn was KK and Marquardt was AA. Flop was blanks. Turn was a K and river was an Ace.


I have seen Horn fight probably 10 times and have never seen him look any better physically. He is just one of those guys who always looks out of shape...whether they are or not.

QUOTE (steve7stud @ Friday, February 8th, 2008, 1:40 AM) *
Almeida- Again I got poor odds. The guy pulled off a beautiful submission. Highlight reel material for sure.


That fight was the lock of the night.

QUOTE (steve7stud @ Friday, February 8th, 2008, 1:40 AM) *
Spiderguard and Big Lebowski are still owed a one on one with me. JC and Adam. Haven't forgotten about that guys. We've all just been busy.


I haven't played poker in some time as I started teaching in December. Waking up at 5:45AM has not only cut the cards out, but has made me one crabby mf'er. I'll take a rain check and PM you at a later date if it is cool with you.
KDawgCometh
QUOTE (steve7stud @ Friday, February 8th, 2008, 12:40 AM) *
Lesnar is a beast. Guy looks like a juggernaut. Not sure how good he will look without steroids though. He honestly looks way too big for a guy not to be on roids imo.





lesnar has always looked this way, even when he was in college. Obviously he juiced up when he was in the WWE and NJPW, but he hasn't lost that much definition and size since those days. His legs are a bit thinner but his upper body is still approx the same size. THe guy is just a freak

now as far as slyvia, he reminds me a lot of Pedro Rizzo right now. Does all sorts of tactical jabbing and just makes for boring fights. I always hated watching a Rizzo fight as I knew what I was gonna get, a bunch of MMA style tactical Kickboxing. Well, Slyvia does tactical boxing in the MMA field. If he was 3-4 inches shorter he wouldn't be more then a mid card guy
ol'number7
sweet avatar Actuary. At no other moment in UFC history has the phrase"you have been owned" applied better. The crowd I watched the fight with was buzzing about that moment hours after the fight
grocery_mony
Good news for Canadian UFC fans. http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news.detail&gid=10029 . Hope to see another in Toronto by the end of the year. Then hopefully out west where I am in either Vancouver, Calgary or Edmonton. Will definatly go to one out west but I would rather go to Vegas to see one than Toronto.


As much as I like Silva I am really leaning towards Henderson now. If it goes to + 160 I will deffinatly take Hendo.



LOL! saw this on TSN last night. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fbqBOxJQmQ
The anouncers before the fight were saying that Butterbean was the 5th ranked superheavyweight MMA fighter in the world???
BigLebowski
Does anyone want to take a stab trying to convince me not to take out a 2nd mortgage to put on K-Flo over Joe Lauzon at -200?
bdc30
QUOTE (grocery_mony @ Sunday, February 10th, 2008, 4:41 PM) *
The anouncers before the fight were saying that Butterbean was the 5th ranked superheavyweight MMA fighter in the world???


5th ranked out of 7 guys is nothing to be proud of.....lol Didn't he weigh in at like 460 or something?
Ron_Mexico
nobody talks about the WEC, or the fights this Saturday in EliteXC. I mean, I realize it isn't the most exciting fights, but it should be a slugfest. Kimbo gets the win? Also, Ricco something, a former UFC hw champ is fighting. Anyone interested in the WEC telecast on VS Wed or the EliteXC deal on Saturday. I watched a Jake Shields fight the other day and a Robbie Lawler fight. Good, not great. I realize it isn't about betting, but it's something. Maybe it's because I'm a new fan, so I'm watching everything I can. Old UFC fights, old WEC fights, etc.
Influcted
Crocop signed with Dreams.
steve7stud
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Tuesday, February 12th, 2008, 7:43 PM) *
nobody talks about the WEC, or the fights this Saturday in EliteXC. I mean, I realize it isn't the most exciting fights, but it should be a slugfest. Kimbo gets the win? Also, Ricco something, a former UFC hw champ is fighting. Anyone interested in the WEC telecast on VS Wed or the EliteXC deal on Saturday. I watched a Jake Shields fight the other day and a Robbie Lawler fight. Good, not great. I realize it isn't about betting, but it's something. Maybe it's because I'm a new fan, so I'm watching everything I can. Old UFC fights, old WEC fights, etc.


I watch EliteXC. And by the way you can bet on those fights as well.

The reason I don't discuss those fights, well a couple of reasons. But the main reason is that the quality of fighters is not nearly as good. Frank Shamrock is a good fighter imo. Cung Le seems to have a lot of talent. Renzo Gracie is also a talented fighter. But in the grand scheme of things you really can't compare the two. Dana White put it best when he said you have a guy like Robbie Lawler who is a belt holder in EliteXC and he was never a top ten fighter in the UFC. It's comparing apples and oranges. People generally don't talk about minor league baseball when they can focus on major league baseball. I watch most mma events because I enjoy watching them period. But there isn't a lot to discuss when it comes to smaller shows. Tank Abbot coming into fight really doesn't excite me. The only thing that EliteXC had going for it was the female fighters. And with Gina Corrano going to American Gladiators, that fizzled out one of it's main attractions.
BigLebowski
QUOTE (Influcted @ Wednesday, February 13th, 2008, 10:03 AM) *
Crocop signed with Dreams.


When you are at the twilight of your career it makes sense to take the money and face cupcakes rather than actually having to fight a legit opponent every time you step into the ring/cage. I still can't believe Josh Barnett couldn't figure out a way to beat the guy.
BigLebowski
I don't think watching WEC for 155lb+ talent is going to impress anyone, but some of their 135'ers and 145'ers have sick talent. I don't see how they can put Banuelos/Tapia on the main card and keep Maeda/Valencia on the under when Valencia made Banuelos look silly. Valencia is a good fighter, but he still needs to prove he can beat a top tier opponent.

I think the WEC's champs are legit (except for maybe Doug Marhsall) and could definitely hold their own against the UFC's top five in their respective weight divisions. Some of the top contenders could defeat top 10 guys in the UFC. Even Doug Marshall could do some damage in the weak 185 division.

Lawler has picked up a lot of experience outside the UFC and his only really bad loss was to Pete Spratt. He has defeated Villasenor, Trigg, and Ninja Rua in 3 of his last 4 fights and gave Mayhem all he could handle. I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back to the UFC and take out a couple of contenders.

Don't know enough about EliteXC to comment, but when you have Tank Abbott vs Kimbo as your main draw I am not sure you will get much serious discussion on the organization.
CodyHartman
There is a FREE WEC event on tonight on Versus (formly OLN). It is a pretty good card. Too bad I gots to work, but it will def. be on the TV next to my bar where I tend.

Check it out.
Ron_Mexico
Steve, I agree to a point, but in the sport of MMA, I think there is a little more to chance. Anyone can get caught at anytime. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying a bunch of tomato cans can go out and have a good chance to beat a champ, but it's called "a puncher's chance" for a reason.

And like Lebowski said, some of these guys are picking up experience in this division, getting better, like Lawler and the like. Training, ring time and experience make better fighters. The UFC is a hype machine and want everyone to believe that they have the best fighters in the world, and for the most part they do, but there are other fighters out there. Also, I love watching Faber. He's a little stud and shouldn't have to gain to fight at 155 in the UFC. I don't know, I agree that from top to bottom, Elite and WEC don't match, but each association does have a decent fighter or two.

One of the first fights I ever watched was Frank Shamrock picking apart then choking out Barone. It was great. Sooo, I think Showtime and EliteXC for getting me into this. Tank Abbott is a turd, but they are easing Kimbo in, as opposed to the UFC making Lesner earn his keep early, and potentially hindering his confidence and career. We'll see.
BigLebowski
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Wednesday, February 13th, 2008, 7:42 PM) *
Tank Abbott is a turd, but they are easing Kimbo in, as opposed to the UFC making Lesner earn his keep early, and potentially hindering his confidence and career. We'll see.


This was Lesnar's choice. Word is they pretty much let him hand pick his opponent.
Ron_Mexico
QUOTE (BigLebowski @ Wednesday, February 13th, 2008, 8:16 PM) *
This was Lesnar's choice. Word is they pretty much let him hand pick his opponent.

Then he is an idiot. Although, for that contract, I'm guessing the UFC helped a bit. $250k to show up and I think it was a $200k win bonus. I woulda went a different route than picking a guy that from any angle, can grab an arm or leg and bend it till it breaks. Especially considering that Lesner's style right now is basically chaos. He should picked a brawler. Then again, I have a mini man crush on Mir, so maybe I'm jaded.
jayboogie
QUOTE (BigLebowski @ Tuesday, February 12th, 2008, 12:38 PM) *
Does anyone want to take a stab trying to convince me not to take out a 2nd mortgage to put on K-Flo over Joe Lauzon at -200?


I'm picking Joe in this fight. I expect Joe to take Kenny down and deliver some vicious ground and pound and possibly finish Ken-Flo. Joe has better wrestling, stand-up is pretty close and the ground is pretty close as well. Florian has better ground credentials, but Joe is very good there too, especially on top. He trains with BJ now, so Florian won't have anything for him he hasn't seen. I just think Joe outworks him and shuts down Florian's game, because he fights so aggressive and I don't think Florian can keep up.
jayboogie
The WEC event was an excellent card. Miguel Torres is one of the best fighters Pound for Pound on the Planet, he just gets no attention because he fights at 135. His stand-up is awesome and he has one of the best guards in MMA. He completely shut down a very good fighter's game in Beebe with his guard and made it look easy. Razor Rob didn't look like himself, he looked completely gassed and I'm not sure where I stand on that Timeout Varner asked for to get his mouthpiece back in after he was rocked badly. Regardless though, gotta give credit to Varner who showed some very good boxing in there. What also makes cards like these great is the fighters on them fight to win, instead of fighting not to lose. In the UFC, there's way too many fighters concerened with not losing, which makes for lackluster fights.
ShakeZuma
when is this Tank Abbot/Kimbo Slice fight and where can I watch it? I searched the internet slightly and read about 6 posts above this but didn't see it. thats all I'm capable of.
JoeyJoJo
QUOTE (ShakeZuma @ Friday, February 15th, 2008, 12:49 PM) *
when is this Tank Abbot/Kimbo Slice fight and where can I watch it? I searched the internet slightly and read about 6 posts above this but didn't see it. thats all I'm capable of.

You are so very lazy.

QUOTE (Royal_Tour @ Tuesday, February 12th, 2008, 1:51 AM) *
as the title says. if anyone is a kimbo fan, his next fight is vs Tank Abbott, Feb 23rd in Florida.

If i could respawn as anyone, Kimbo would probably be like my 4th choice.
also here are some solid clips VIA espn. (not a rick roll)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeBwbbF7TlA...feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R9r-2hx11Q...feature=related
Jadaki
QUOTE (ShakeZuma @ Friday, February 15th, 2008, 11:49 AM) *
when is this Tank Abbot/Kimbo Slice fight and where can I watch it? I searched the internet slightly and read about 6 posts above this but didn't see it. thats all I'm capable of.


EliteXC saturday night, I believe Showtime is carrying it.
ShakeZuma
QUOTE (JoeyJoJo @ Friday, February 15th, 2008, 1:52 PM) *
You are so very lazy.

you're lucky I even had the energy to quote this post

QUOTE (Jadaki @ Friday, February 15th, 2008, 2:33 PM) *
EliteXC saturday night, I believe Showtime is carrying it.

oh cool, and to think, I JUST signed up for all the movie channels this past weekend. cool.
BigLebowski
QUOTE (jayboogie @ Friday, February 15th, 2008, 1:54 AM) *
The WEC event was an excellent card. Miguel Torres is one of the best fighters Pound for Pound on the Planet, he just gets no attention because he fights at 135. His stand-up is awesome and he has one of the best guards in MMA. He completely shut down a very good fighter's game in Beebe with his guard and made it look easy. Razor Rob didn't look like himself, he looked completely gassed and I'm not sure where I stand on that Timeout Varner asked for to get his mouthpiece back in after he was rocked badly. Regardless though, gotta give credit to Varner who showed some very good boxing in there. What also makes cards like these great is the fighters on them fight to win, instead of fighting not to lose. In the UFC, there's way too many fighters concerened with not losing, which makes for lackluster fights.


QFT

Razor Rob was gradually losing the standup and knew he wanted no piece of Varner on the ground. That will make anyone look different. IMO he was simply outclassed.

About the time out incident.....If memory serves me right they had just finished a scramble and got back to their feet with Razor Rob backing off like they were going to circle again. There is no way Mazzagatti did not see the mouthpiece fly out so as soon as they got back to a neutral position he should have stopped the fight to allow Varner to get his mouthpiece back. I think it was a poor job of officiating so I don't mind so much that Varner tried to call the time out and was basically granted it.



Off topic: It really gets on my nerves to see poor reporting by a reputable MMA news source.

From MMAJunkie.com

"In his WEC debut, former UFC fighter Leonard Garcia made short work of K-1 and Shooto veteran Hiroyuki Takaya. The Team Jackson connected on a wild overhand right that set up the TKO via punches at 1:31 of the first round."

What was wild about that punch? It was a perfect straight right that put Takaya on his ass. Meh...just makes it sound like they don't think much of Garcia.
Jadaki
Best KO I have seen in a while from tonights EliteXC card, the knee Edwards launched during the takedown attempt... it was just brutal.
Ron_Mexico
all but one fight on the EliteXC card ended in a vicious knockout. It was entertaining if nothing else. It certainly doesn't contain a lot of high level BJJ, but they do bang.
reyho
QUOTE (Ron_Mexico @ Saturday, February 16th, 2008, 10:41 PM) *
all but one fight on the EliteXC card ended in a vicious knockout. It was entertaining if nothing else. It certainly doesn't contain a lot of high level BJJ, but they do bang.

Didn't seem like the crowd was into any of the fights except the Slice/Tank match up. Yves Edwards was a great ko. Tank is hopefully done for good - its no longer cool to say that you dont train and you drink lots. He's just a name for someone to beat. Shamrock vs. Slice = Nice.
Ron_Mexico
Yeah, the fans booing 35 seconds into the first round of that Scott Smith fight just showed their ignorance of MMA and fighting in general. People in Miami suck. They are either posers..or...nah, that's it, mostly posers.
PrtyPSux
Alright, so the when you go to a fight, before the televised fights they play an insane video on the big screens....it's the best UFC highlight compilation ever, made to the music of Teenage Wasteland. I've looked for the video everywhere, but really i don't know how to use the interweb aside from youtube and google....if anyone can find that video I'll ship $20 for it....if it's really good quality $50...I think if I start watching that before tourneys I might win every one of them smile.gif....thanks.
Chris E
Its actually called 'Baba O'Riley' by the Who written by Pete Townsend

Unofficial taped UFC compilation: http://www.bebo.com/FlashBox.jsp?FlashBoxId=5586302429

Youtube version that is not as good: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgmy8LWCbNg

The Who:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKUBTX9kKEo (theres also one from Blue Man Group there)

Torrentspy link to Who album: http://www.torrentspy.com/torrent/713681/T...FSL_Darkside_RG

My Stars account is ChrisE225, I'm happy with whatever you think is fair provided its the one you were looking for.
HollywoodAFD
Just got this from the Iceman:

I have been told by the MMAJACKED crew that they just interviewed Jake Shields and Jake says he would destroy Kimbo Slice and would fight him right away. The footage might be in the archive already, it will be in the archive video section of www.mmajacked.com in order for the people to have access, that they must be members (membership is free and takes a few minutes). Create your account if you haven't already, this should be great!

Chuck
HoosierAlum
No wonder they wear so many endorsements on their shorts....here is what the fighters were paid for the most recent EliteXC fight (notice the $1ball):

* Kevin Ferguson ($175,000) def. David Abbott ($126,000)
* Antonio Silva ($80,000) def. Ricco Rodriguez ($20,000)
* Scott Smith ($12,000) def. Kyle Noke ($3,000)
* Yves Edwards ($6,000) def. Edson Berto ($6,000)
* Brett Rogers ($4,000) def. James Thompson ($25,000)
* Rafael Feijao ($6,000) def. John Doyle ($2,5O0)
* Yosmany Cabezas ($2,000) def. Jon Kirk ($2,500)
* Dave Herman ($1,500) def. Mario Rinaldi ($2,000)
* Eric Bradley ($1,000) def. Mikey Gomez ($1,500)
* Lorenzo Borgomeo ($1,000) def. Mike Bernhard ($1,500)
* Moyses Gabin ($1)* def. Jirka Hlavati ($500)
Chris E
I would assume that the $1 is because Gabin is an amateur and as an amateur you cannot be paid for your fights. But I agree, its ridiculous for Noke to come all the way from Australia for $3K especially with the brutal KO on top of that.
PrtyPSux
QUOTE (HoosierAlum @ Wednesday, February 20th, 2008, 6:32 PM) *
No wonder they wear so many endorsements on their shorts....here is what the fighters were paid for the most recent EliteXC fight (notice the $1ball):

* Kevin Ferguson ($175,000) def. David Abbott ($126,000)
* Antonio Silva ($80,000) def. Ricco Rodriguez ($20,000)
* Scott Smith ($12,000) def. Kyle Noke ($3,000)
* Yves Edwards ($6,000) def. Edson Berto ($6,000)
* Brett Rogers ($4,000) def. James Thompson ($25,000)
* Rafael Feijao ($6,000) def. John Doyle ($2,5O0)
* Yosmany Cabezas ($2,000) def. Jon Kirk ($2,500)
* Dave Herman ($1,500) def. Mario Rinaldi ($2,000)
* Eric Bradley ($1,000) def. Mikey Gomez ($1,500)
* Lorenzo Borgomeo ($1,000) def. Mike Bernhard ($1,500)
* Moyses Gabin ($1)* def. Jirka Hlavati ($500)



Can't wait, maybe in a couple of years with me in Xtreme Couture and I'll be spiking the 'ol dollar ball for getting my ass kicked in vegas...


Lol, that's ridic either way and it's not too far from what the UFC guys get paid from what I've seen....That UFC manager from the venetian game told me sponsors pay shit too... like a well known UFC fighter fighting outside of the two main fights will be lucky if he makes 10k through sponsors. Either way I'm sure Kimbo isn't too pissed that he went from $500 "that's how a nigga eat" street fights, to a $175k 30 second throwaway fight. He's marketable as hell, I wonder if the dude will ever be in the UFC.

Also, Chris...I shipped some mobnies on stars, thanks for the videos....Everyone here should watch it, it's sicck.
Chris E
Thanks mate, happy to help.
Jadaki
QUOTE (HoosierAlum @ Wednesday, February 20th, 2008, 1:32 PM) *
No wonder they wear so many endorsements on their shorts....here is what the fighters were paid for the most recent EliteXC fight (notice the $1ball):

* Kevin Ferguson ($175,000) def. David Abbott ($126,000)
* Antonio Silva ($80,000) def. Ricco Rodriguez ($20,000)
* Scott Smith ($12,000) def. Kyle Noke ($3,000)
* Yves Edwards ($6,000) def. Edson Berto ($6,000)
* Brett Rogers ($4,000) def. James Thompson ($25,000)
* Rafael Feijao ($6,000) def. John Doyle ($2,5O0)
* Yosmany Cabezas ($2,000) def. Jon Kirk ($2,500)
* Dave Herman ($1,500) def. Mario Rinaldi ($2,000)
* Eric Bradley ($1,000) def. Mikey Gomez ($1,500)
* Lorenzo Borgomeo ($1,000) def. Mike Bernhard ($1,500)
* Moyses Gabin ($1)* def. Jirka Hlavati ($500)


MMA fighters get paid shit compared to boxing which blows my mind. I'd step into a ring with Kimbo for 126k though, even if it meant getting knocked the fuck out.
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