Fight Science on National Geographic Channel is looking at MMA fighters tonight. They usually test things like striking power using modified crash test dummies. Might be kind of interesting.
They guys they'll be studying:
Rutten
Couture
Lister
Ortiz

No fighter in the world is untouchable. Anything can happen in a fight, so to think anybody is untouchable is just silly. GSP is one of my favourite fighters, so it's nothing against him when I pick BJ over him. Anyone that trains and fighters themselves know BJ is the most talented fighter in the world. Saying Serra got lucky is just stupid, that's like saying anybody that lands a knockout punch just got lucky. I think GSP will beat Serra, but Serra gives everyone a tough fight, so I don't expect GSP to walk right through him either.

To me, all GSP has improved on is his wrestling. His striking has always been good, but not amazing and the same thing with his BJJ. On the other hand, Penn's BJJ is flat out amazing and his stand-up is probably better too. What basically proved this is GSP trying to take BJ down after BJ beat the crap out of him in the 1st Rd while standing. If you watched the first fight, can you honestly say GSP did any damage whatsoever? He basically took down an exhausted BJ and just laid on top of him to squeak out a decision. What makes you think GSP can do anything really different in a rematch against a focused and in shape BJ? GSP has better kicks, but BJ has the better hands. GSP's chin is questionable whereas we know BJ has an amazing chin. The reason I favour BJ is because he has so many more ways to win the fight than GSP does. The only way I see GSP winning is by grinding out a boring lay and pray decision like he did last time. I can see BJ beating GSP in quite a few ways.

The UFC must be really confident that Lesnar will win, because they've invested quite a bit of money in promoting him. We all know the fight will end up on the ground with Lesnar on top, it's just a matter of whether Mir can catch him in a submission off his back or not. Personally, I don't like betting on this fight at all, because many scenarios can happen and Mir is a hot and cold fighter. Sometimes, he looks great and other times looks like crap.

I would also pick Nog to beat Sylvia, but it's not worth betting at the current odds. There may be some value on Sylvia, but I think Nog wins the fight still. Nog has good boxing and a great chin, so he won't be scared to stand with Sylvia and I think he will get in close enough for the takedown and get the fight to the ground. If it gets to the ground, it's a wrap.

that is a sick card. I honestly can't believe that they are giving that card away for free





steve, what are the current lines. I'm not working tommorrow and will be available after 10 cst on wednesday night. IM me and hopefully I can give better advice then I gave last time

+150 for Silvia -180 Nog

+105 Mir -135 Lesnar

I like Mir as a fav in this fight and think Silvia is a coinflip if Nog looks as bad as he did in his first fight and Silvia looks as good as he did in his last.

The rest of the card is good too I just don't know wtf the lines are.

I hope Mir humiliates Lesnar. I really don't want a bunch of ex-steroid abusers coming in and thinking that just because they wrestled in college they have the credentials to make it in MMA.

You are aware that Lesnar began training in BJJ many years ago contemplated going into MMA before continuing his final year of college. I assume you are also aware the he has never once tested positive for steroids and was a two time NCAA champion not just some random college wrestler. His credentials are similar to those of what Couture, Henderson and many others had when they first entered the sport. Not saying he's going to light the UFC on fire but his credentials certainly make it reasonable that he get a shot.

The Lesnar/Mir line has dropped quite a bit from when the match was first made. There's just too many uknown variables in this fight for me to pick a side. For instance, I have no idea how good Lesnar's submission defense is, which is going to be the key to this fight. This is Lesnar's 2nd pro fight and a huge step up in competition, so who knows how he will fight on the big stage. Mir looks like absolutely trash sometimes and great others. He really has not looked right since his motorcycle accident.

I think Nog looked fine in his fight against Herring. He just got clipped with a headkick and that was really all Herring did all fight. The rest of the fight Nog outboxed and dominated the fight.

this card aint bad either.

UFC 82, March 1

Champ Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson (for middleweight title)
Jon Fitch vs. Chris Wilson
Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake O’Brien
Heath Herring vs. Cheick Kongo
PRELIMINARY CARD

David Bielkheden vs. Diego Sanchez
Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Koscheck
Chris Leben vs. Alessio Sakara
Luke Cummo vs. Luigi Fioravanti
Jorge Gurgel vs. John Halverson

JC, don't touch the mir/lesnar fight as far as +EV betting goes. like jay said, just way too many variables in this fight to bet with any sort of confidence. Mir hasn't looked like the same fighter after his motorcycle accident and while Lesnar may be the real deal, we just don't know wtf his deal is(obviously he won't fade in the face of stardom as he's done pro wrestling in front of bigger crowds(yes I know different animal, but Japanese Puro is different then WWE and Lesnar was a big draw for New Japan too) but we just don't know where his level is yet).

bet nog, bet nog hard. Silvia has never been all that, and Nog picked apart Alecksander Emilienko and Fedor's brother IMO is a better fighter then Silvia. Nog had only the head kick that messed with him and yet he still recovered and then picked apart herring. Anytime that Silvia has gone up against a ground guy with the game that Nog has, he's been picked apart(expect for Monson, but Jeff Monson is also a 5'8" HW, so its unfair as it was evident in that fight that the Height factor was massive). Nog is arguably the best HW fighter in the world and I really can't see Silvia beating him(in fact, I'll put up a prop bet on this one, I'll send someone a nice bottle of wine if they want the silvia side of this, and they would send me a nice bottle of vino if silvia loses)





this is very true. Lesnar was a olympic quality wrestler and if it wasn't for the fact that PRIDE, New Japan Pro Wrestling, WWE, and WCW had all given him huge contract offers, he most likely would've gone to the 04 olympics in freestyle and would be going to bejing this summer in it. He was a dominant wrestler and I was utterly impressed with him when I saw him wrestle. He is far from a hack and has a lot of skill, we just don't know if he can translate it to the octagon

This is what people said about Vera vs Tim, I bet tim and won huge getting odds on him....and as far as pride guys go its what people said with crocop vs Gonzaga AND Kongo, shogun vs Forrest, Silva vs Chuck and a bunch of other pride superstars that have turned out to be a huge joke. Aside from rampage and possibly henderson I think we've seen how overrated these guys are. Tim is a 5 time champ (I think), his akward style and massive size makes him a tough guy for anyone, not to mention he's lost 1 fight since 05 and it was vs Couture. I'm not saying Nog won't win, or that he doesn't have a chance, I'm just saying you're once again hugely overestimating the line, 1.8 to one is too much to lay on Nog imo. Just the fact that Tim has fought in the octagon for title shots a million times more than minotauro auto puts him at an advantage, at the very least in more of a coinflip situation.

I wouldn't be so quick to say the Pride guys are all overrated. Weird stuff happens when it comes to fighting and outside factors, injuries play a huge part. Shogun had a knee injury going into his fight with Forrest. Cro Cop just has not adapated to the cage and isn't able to cut fighters off like he can do in a ring. With Nog's style, I don't think the cage will matter all that much. The cage favours wrestlers more than anyone else and I don't see Sylvia trying to take Nog down. In Tim's last fight, Vera broke his hand and was coming off a 11 month layoff which I'm sure impacted the fight. Vera was not fighting the way he normally does. Nog has also fought the better competition and is just an awesome fighter overall. I believe Nog is the better fighter and has a good style to combat what Syvia does, whereas I can only see Tim winning a boring close decision. I wouldn't bet on Nog at those odds either, but I wouldn't bet against him either.

Well, here's the thing. I've done really well on the last two UFC's that I went to.

UFC with Chuck vs Vanderlei and UFC TUF finale.

The TUF finale JC and I only made one real mistake and that was kind of my fault. But we did well on the card overall.

The UFC with Chuck. I won 4-5 which is pretty huge.

Here is the bottom line. A lot of the picks that I made were close ones. And I always get this feeling like I "could" go either way. Except for the Chuck and GSP fight. I felt very confident in those picks.

They made a big deal about Sok coming to the UFC as well. Not as much as Lesnar, but they had huge hopes for the kid. And Machida crushed him. Just dominated. I took Machida in that fight btw.

Sometimes you have to make "thin" decisions. A lot of people will say that this fight is too close to call and I wouldn't bet on it, etc.

I have a pretty good idea of most peoples thoughts regarding the main card.

Lets talk about the undercard. Forget about the lines, because I can't seem to find them.

Just tell me who you think is going to win.......

wait, did you just make a comparison between vera and Nog? They are two different fighters and Nog is miles ahead of Vera as far as ground game and pure boxing goes. This isn't a coinflip IMO as Nog is just that much better. Couture imposed his will on Silvia and Mir did the same thing.

It's difficult to fully say that the PRIDE guys are over rated as the main one that people can point to is Shogun, but like Jay said, he had a torn ACL going into that fight and FOrrest was also a good 15 lbs heavier then Shogun. That stuff makes a big difference. Don't forget that Anderson Silva was a PRIDE fighter. Obviously I can't say much about CroCop, I think he just doesn't really care at this point.

Ok. Pretty solid on the Nog line. I think Nog is a great fighter as well. I do wonder if he is past is prime though. Obviously Nog is a more complete fighter than Tim. I will have to see what the line is.

Lets talk about the undercard........

From Bodog 1/30/08

UFC 81 - Light Heavyweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (8:15pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
David Heath -270
Tim Boetsch +210

UFC 81 - Welterweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (8:15pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Keita Nakamura -265
Rob Emerson +205

UFC 81 - Middleweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (8:30pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Terry Martin -220
Marvin Eastman +180

UFC 81 - Welterweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (9pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Chris Lytle -600
Kyle Bradley +400

UFC 81 - Middleweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (10:05pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Ricardo Almeida -130
Alan Belcher EVEN

UFC 81 - Lightweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (10:05pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Tyson Griffin -450
Gleison Tibau +300

UFC 81 - Middleweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (10:30pm) @ Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Nate Marquardt -225
Jeremy Horn +185

UFC 81 - Heavyweights Feb 2nd (11pm EST) Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -165
Tim Sylvia +135

UFC 81- Heavyweights - Sat, Feb 2nd (11:30pm EST) @ The Pearl, Nevada Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Brock Lesnar -140
Frank Mir +110

Elite XC MMA - Heavyweights- 16th Feb (11.15pm EST) Miami, Florida Both must fight for action. Singles Only. Max $500
Kimbo Slice -450
Tank Abbott +300

those would be the bets I would make.

I don't know enough about the first match to make a good bet

I wouldn't bet rob emerson at all. He just isn't a UFC level fighter, but he is entertaining. I just think he has way too many weaknesses at this point to be worth a bet

I think the eastman/martin fight is definitely a case of people seeing martin a lot in teh UFC and not knowing enough about marvin eastman. Eastman is going to be a big MW and is a very heavy puncher and can take a beating too. He has a lot of experience and is a bit of a journeyman, but when has Martin gone up against a guy that has the toughness that Eastman does. I'm not sold on martin fully, but he has had some serious highlight reel KOs

I think the lytle line is excessive, but I just can't see Lytle losing that fight and I don't think that there is enough of a deal on it to make it a good bet

Almeida is an excellent fighter and Belcher will be a tough test, but again, Almeida is an excellent fighter and I've always thought that he can take it to the next level

I think we've all learned not to bet against tyson griffen, and it'll be a good fight

I think taht Horn is good value here. marquardt should win, but Horn is very tricky and will force the pace of the fight. I think he can catch marquardt to get a submission enough to make that bet

I've already said why I'd bet Nog and why I wouldn't touch the Lesnar fight

Nog is only 31, so I would doubt that he is past his prime. He's still beaten top competition in recent years, beating Josh Barnett and Fabricio Werdum. It seems like the Nog/Sylvia line is shifting towards Sylvia. At around -150 ish, I think Nog is a good bet.

Gleison Tibau is very good value at +300 imo. He has excellent BJJ and I think the fight will end up on the ground like all of Tyson's fights. I still favour Tyson to win this fight, but wouldn't be surprised if Tibau pulled it off with a submission or wins a close decision.

Almeida is an awesome fighter, who has beaten some very good fighters. He's coming off a 3 1/2 year layoff though, so I'm hesitant on picking him to win.

Eastman/Martin is an interesting fight. They both have very questionable chins, Martin's being probably worst. I think this fight will come down to who lands the big punch first.

Marquardt/Horn, I expect Nate to beat Horn via decision. He has better stand-up and probably equal ground to Horn.

Here are the lines from Pinnacle:
UFC 81 -Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Heavyweights
Sat 2/2 Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir
08:30 PM 271 Brock Lesnar -151
272 Frank Mir +141
Sat 2/2 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Tim Sylvia
08:00 PM 291 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -179
292 Tim Sylvia +169
UFC 81 -Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Light Heavyweights
Sat 2/2 David Heath vs Tim Boetsch
05:10 PM 332 David Heath -231
333 Tim Boetsch +211
UFC 81 -Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Lightweights
Sat 2/2 Tyson Griffin vs Gleison Tibau
07:05 PM 327 Tyson Griffin -351
328 Gleison Tibau +321
UFC 81 -Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Middleweight
Sat 2/2 Nate Marquardt vs Jeremy Horn
07:30 PM 323 Nate Marquardt -241
324 Jeremy Horn +221
Sat 2/2 Terry Martin vs Marvin Eastman
05:30 PM 331 Terry Martin -201
332 Marvin Eastman +181
UFC 81 -Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Welterweights
Sat 2/2 Chris Lytle vs Kyle Bradley
05:45 PM 329 Chris Lytle -526
330 Kyle Bradley +476
Sat 2/2 Keita Nakamura vs Rob Emerson
05:10 PM 334 Keita Nakamura -241
335 Rob Emerson +221



Seems a lot of money is coming in on Lesnar lately, I hope it keeps going that way because I'm going to wait til after the weigh-ins to see what kind of shape Mir is in -- if he's in shape, I'm going to fire. He is tailor-made to beat Lesnar, as a heavyweight who excels at fighting from his back with submissions

this thread was more enjoyable when it was not about the bet.

imo.

can't wait.

Here are the lines from my sports book:

Jeremy Horn 3.20 Nate Marquardt 1.30

Frank Mir 2.00 Brock Lesner 1.72

Tim Sylvia 2.20 Antonio Rodrigo 1.61

Chris Lytle 1.14 Kyle Bradley 5.00

David Heath 1.40 Tim Boetsch 2.75

Gleison Tibau 3.50 Tyson Griffin 1.25

Marvin Eastman 2.75 Terry Martin 1.40

Ricardo Almeida 1.66 Alan Belcher 2.10

uhhh, I don't get it.

check out sportsinteraction.com I'm deeply in love w this site

I actually used them for a couple years before I got money on bodog, I like the site too.

I just don't get those lines - what does that mean. How do you know which is the favorite and what the payout is with those numbers? We need -180 +150!

1.61 odds means an X amount you bet times 1.61 equals your payout.

eg. $1 bet equals $1.61 payout. Total Profit of $.61.

Betting is a part of all sports.

Once you have gone to a live UFC and have a bet on a fight, it will never be the same. It doesn't matter if you are betting $20 or $2000, the fight becomes that much more exciting.

In regard to this thread, no content has been taken away. In fact, it's just the opposite.

We now have more in depth discussions because money lines are involved. That also allows people to do research on various fighters and share information that otherwise would not seem important.

As a huge fan of the UFC, I would like to see more discussions in this thread.

Oh btw. Does anyone know how I can watch the weigh ins tonight?

I don't see it listed on Spike. Is it on UFC.com?

Thanks

They show it live on ufc.com at 7pm est tonight.

aha..thanks. I definitely like -120 +150 better

uh really?

Well, there is some major arbitrage opportunity.

(note everyone is >1)

I do think the betting talk tends to crowd out or turn off some otherwise enthusiastic but non-betting fans,
It's like the Pinnocle playing crowd vs Poker players.
I agree ther is room for both but it tends not to happen
And I don't question your pure enthusiasm for the sport.

I didn't get a chance to see the weigh ins. It's also not replaying on ufc.com for some reason. Or if it is, I can't find it.

If anyone watched it, please tell me how people looked.

For those interested. Weigh in!!!!

actuary is right. I prefer the fight talk over the betting talk. I watch and love sports, but I've never once made a monetary wager on any sport. I get that it would make a fight/game that I'm not invested in more interesting, but I also think that it would take away from it if I lost the bet. Just my idiotic opinion. But, carry on with the bet talk. I'm just adding my .02

http://www.tvunetworks.com/

Go to the site, download, tune to MMA channel & watch the fight for free!!! I will be there.

agreed


I'm really on the fence for this card. I mean there are two big fights, but they're both heavyweight, and if the past is any indicator, they'll be boring. I hope not, but we'll see. I haven't really been paying attention that much to this latest one so I don't even know who else is on the card besides the big 2. oh well, I like surprises.


all I know is that I'm already super jazzed about the silva/henderson fight. that should be awesome.

ps. I just set an account up on Bodog for purposes of putting chump change down on the fights as my wife and watch yet another MMA event.
I just wanted to give full disclosure

Perhaps splitting the thread would not be a bad idea.

UFC All Access: Brock Lesnar is on If anyone cares.

I'm no lawyer, but I'm guessing that this isn't legal. AmIright?

Was gonna sit this one out but my brother in law is getting it so I am gonna go leach at there house. I really hope Lesnar is the real deal the Heavyweight division needs a superstar. Sylvia always looks so awkward and dopey but I think he is still a major threat in the heavyweight division. Should be decent but I cant wait till Henderson/Silva.

They broadcast from all over the world. Ever seen Cartoon Network in Hindi? FUNNY!!!

I agree steve, the betting discussions has actually led to more disucssion as opposed to man, I think this guy will win because of x. I know that I took a lot of shit over the UFC that had marquart and silva match and the leitas v sherk match because I advocated some dogs(most of it via PM), but like poker people can't always see past results


as far as tonights PPV, it was a very good show. I think that Lesnar showed very well all things considered. He was beating Mir up and Mir showed what he can really do. Mir for the first time since his accident showed how talented of a fighter he is and at the same time, Lesnar showed himself to be extremely dangerous. I thought that the point deduction was B.S. but obviously it didn't matter in the end.

Nog showed what he can do and I never had any doubt in the result. This is just how Nog operates and outside of Fedor, Nog has been in danger how many times now and has come out on top. He's faced more dangerous strikers and hasn't been KO'd and slyvia was gonna KO him, not a chance

I'm glad that Ricardo Almeida showed what he can do tonight. I've always been a big fan of him and he has some serious talent. As long as the game hasn't left him by with the lay off, he may actually be one of the top guys at 185 and can hopefully provide some good depth to the division

MIR PWNAGE

I wasn't looking as forward to this event as I am to most but from top to bottom I pretty much enjoyed every match. I agree that point deduction was crap- there is no excuse to be calling a point that light imo. I was impressed with Lesnar and hope he sticks to MMA as he showed some serious potential. That being said from a pad my bankroll side I'm not shocked at all to see Mir win as I thought that was one of the worst matching they could give Lesnar in his debut.

Sylvia actually looked much better then I was expecting him to- well in the first round anyways.

Mir looked like he wanted to be on the ground from the start. Brock was the physically dominat guy we all wanted to see but when you put him against a guy that just need one little slip to isolate a limb and end it its not gonna go the rookies way. Noguera was the same way. Boring guy but lethal in the submission game. I am a little dissapointed that Lesnar couldnt rise up and have the performance the UFC heavyweight division needs. On a side note I think Vince might be a little pissed to see so many big names from pro wrestling showing support to the one thing that is killing his business.

Whooooooooooooooo!

What a night.

Brock really impressed me. Honestly, I would pick him to win next time. But that's the thing with a world class BJJ, they may look beaten and bam..you're tappin.

Nog, yeah... that was sweet. I was seriously thinking about taking you up on your vino bet, Keith. I felt Tim take down defense would keep it going along with Nog realtive unfamiliarity with Octagon. But I had not seen him in Pride as often as you had. I didn't like when Jowe said "then Tim made a mistake and Nog submitted him" IMO, Nog was perfect with the leg tackle (funny I said to my wife, "Nog just needs to tackle Tims legs, not try to wrap him up high. And sure enough 2 seconds later, he goes real low and scissos the legs to take him down) and then keping Tim close to get the sweep. From the top there was so much to think about for Tim, "Is he going to arm bar me? Anaconda Me? Kimora? Americana? .. cool I'll spin out... oooops ..TAP TAP TAP". It's hard to call it a mistake when you're beaten by perfection.

How about Tim Boetsch. Freaking slung David Heatth into the fence like a rag doll. Dude has some striking skills. Front kick anyone? Oh, and he's a wrestler apparently. Good showing for 10 days notice. Look for him again.

Nate looked good. To me, Horn seems like that awesome guy in the gym who can spar with the best of them and tell you what the best move would be. But against top competition, he doesn't have the strength/skill combos to execute/finish in the heat of battle. 100+ fights and you get caught in a standing guillotine ? wtf.

So many good fights coming up in the next Fight Night and UFCs.

I really think the two HW fights tonight did a lot to raise the relatively weak division. Lesnar showed he can be a force and will be exciting to watch. Tim showed signs of old self. Although, if he made a mistake it was not hitting hard enough and maybe trying to out point Nog. But against someone so good you can't let them survive. They will catch you. Truthfully though, I don't think Tim was not trying to KO Nog. Nog is just tough, obv.

great. well worth $45.


ok. I know I did not anounce earlier but I guess you can trust me. We bet on 3 fights, Our choices in bold

8 units Nate -270 vs Jeremy (not sure, he ended up +250 but Nate ended up -325, I picked about 30 mins before fights)
5 units Lesnar -165 vs Mir +135 (Mirs line ended same, so I'll assume Lesnar was ~165 prefight as he finshed at -165)
7 units Nog -160 vs Tim +130

Won: 14.09 units. Yeah us.

My wife picked the Nog fight. I thought the bet was Tim; but she said that was the one she felt best about.
I'm old school UFC fan and am always glad to see the submission game remain totally viable. You can train to nuetralize some people's submission game; but vs BJ Penn or Nog or a focused Mir..well.. not so much.

Hey Keith,

I agree.
But I think there's a difference between adding some thoughtful comments on who you think will win relative to the odds they are getting. But sometimes the thread becomes simply a list of betting lines and lacks that youthful raw enthusiasm many of us have. Again, not to say the big bettors don't have a raw love for the sport. ok. I've made enough comments on this.

Anyone think the Griffin/Tibau decision was obscenely rigged? Or was it just me and my half of the Arena?



L
O
L

I watched that fight and by the looks of it, Griffin won. He pushed the action, landed what seemed to be the most punches, including power shots. It wasn't a great fight, and giving all 3 rounds to him may have been a stretch, but to the untrained eye, it seemed like he deserved the W


or was this just a thinly veiled brag post about being at the arena?

the second one.


I was really impressed with lesnar. the guy really is as powerful as everybody was saying. I hope they get him back pretty soon because with a little more experience in the octagon, I think he still has the potential to be a big force in the heavyweight division, and possibly even make it exciting again. hopefully they'll give him a tomato can or two instead of putting him right back in there with a really good guy.


did this one still only cost 45 bucks for everybody? cause my friend who got it said that it went up 5 bucks and was now 60 bucks total. that true?