Hmm...I had the exact opposite thought process. Yes, Arlovski or Cro Cop could KO him, but once he got either one of them to the ground it is over. With his size he could easily bull rush either one of these guys and take them down without taking any punishment. They are both on the very light side of heavyweight. Instead, Lesnar gets someone he shouldn't be too excited about being on top of. Even an out of shape Mir is going to have the best JJ skills of any heavyweight. Cro Cop and Arlovski are really one trick ponies even though Arlovski has a little ground game, but a dedicated Mir poses a bigger danger in my opinion.

If Mir is anywhere near serious about his career he should be taking this as a slap in the face and training his ass off.

If I'm Lesnar I think I want to fight Cro Cop or Arlovski. I know I only have to worry about getting them down and having 30-40lbs on them that should not be a problem. With Mir I am not convinced I could beat him standing and I will have to constantly worry about subs when I have him on the ground.

Good point. You could pretty much give him anyone in that division and he would at the minimum hold his own. I wouldn't mind seeing him fight Diego or Tyson Griffin right out of the gate. There really is no reason to baby him. He is by far the most polished fighter ever to come out of TUF.

I'm struggling to remember a fight where someone tried to take Arlovski down...looking at his record I can see a couple fights that may have gone like that, but I honestly don't remember them. What does his takedown defense look like?

Cro Cop on the other hand is dangerous because his lateral movement is so good. Bull-rushing him hasn't generally worked in the past (other than Gabriel Gonzaga).

I feel like Lesnar has kinda short, stubby arms, bad for submissions. Plus he's freakishly strong. We just don't know much about him because of how bad his first opponent was.

A couple random thoughts: Mirko Cro Cop appeared on a pro wrestling show in Japan on New Year's Eve - landing a high kick in a 6 man mixed tag match on...somebody, I don't know Japanese pro wres. And I saw Matt Hughes playing on Full Tilt today completely ignoring the railtards at $1/$2 NLHE. Way to separate yourself from the bad public image Matty. Anyone know what kind of deal he gets for being with FT?



It's good to see a TUF winner that doesn't have to be protected - he'll fit in just fine with the rest of the division. It's hard to say if he'll be a contender or not, but he'll at least be in the same league as the rest of them.

Anyone know the story of how he knows Gray Maynard? Mac's my age and was born in my hometown - I'm trying to figure out if I would have met him somewhere.

I'm disappointed with Sok, lost a big bet on him.. odds were too inviting and his promise of Jungle Kung Fu along with Henderson in his corner got to me.

I should just have unloaded on GSP, doesn't get any safer than that seeing as Hughes crosseyed standup isn't gonna knock anyone out the way Serra does.

I'm still happy with the Sokoudjou bet - I think he should have won that fight. Not that Machida didn't kill him dead in completely convincing fashion, but it was almost 100% mental, not physical. Especially getting him as a slight dog, I'm happy with the bet.

Betting on Hughes wasn't my finest hour though...Lebowski and Steve definitely got me on that one. Hopefully they'll be able to talk me off the ledge of betting on Serra rather than St. Pierre next time...especially with the odds I'm sure I'll get, I don't think I'll be able to avoid it.

lol I'm sure betting on Serra could be tempting for your if you bet on Hughes. As much as I like Serra I don't see him beating GSP at all. I'll jump on that bet if it's better than 15%.
Well, I was confident that Sok would win and the odds were too good to pass up. He would be able to dictate whether to stand up or not with his Judo. Then the fact that he's knocked people out in impressive fashion. Gah, even if I went back in time I'm sure I'd bet on Sok again even if I knew the outcome. I'm too stubborn.

I don't see him beating GSP again, but I won't be able to shake it out of my head that he'll be able to submit GSP. I'm a huge Serra fan, and want him to retain and prove to the world that he's legitimately one of the best MMArtists in the world. Unfortunately I don't think it'll happen, but I'll put a bet down on him anyway because I'm not smart

Hah, I think you need to tell yourself that he'll fight Hughes sooner or later (probably billed as former champs going at it Hehe) and you'll save your Serra bet for then. He'll still be a dog in that fight but I fancy my chances betting on Serra in a fight vs Hughes

I don't think losing to GSP is anything to hang your head about. It will definitely be interesting to see what the odds open at. I just hope the UFC gives Serra more opportunities even if he gets creamed by GSP. I would pay $40 just to see him and Hughes fight..no other fights needed on that card.

Oh The Terra vs Farmboy will happen for sure unless Hughes decides to retire

"I would pay $40 just to see him and Hughes fight." < UFC will make it happen for that exact reason.
I'm a poker player I guess I shouldn't make fun of someones will to make money

I want to see Serra and Hughes tomorrow...I wish there was a way to do that fight before GSP vs. Serra (which I have no real desire to see...).

Anyone ready to start handicapping UFC 80? And does anyone think the mods would care if I started a new thread for that? I'd hate to kill the good discussion we're having in this one, but we're about two weeks away from the next show and it's getting to be time to start getting the bets in line.

UFC80: +650 for me actually purchasing this event

Bring it on!! I say keep it in this thread though - As a casual UFC observer (read - couldn't name more than 3-4 guys out of each weight class) this one was so much better thanks to the mountains of info in all the handicapping threads. I might even try and load a sportsbetting site if we keep this up for every event.

The card (taken from Wikipedia) with odds (taken from Bodog):

Main Card

* Lightweight championship bout: B.J. Penn (-285) vs. Joe Stevenson (+225)
* Heavyweight bout: (-280) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. (+220) Fabricio Werdum
* Welterweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jess Liaudin
* Light Heavyweight bout: Wilson Gouveia vs. Jason Lambert
* Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove (-500) vs. Jorge Rivera (+300)

Preliminary Card

* Heavyweight bout: Colin Robinson vs. Antoni Hardonk
* Welterweight bout: Paul Taylor vs. Paul Kelly
* Light Heavyweight bout: Alessio Sakara vs. James Lee
* Lightweight bout: Per Eklund vs.Sam Stout

I'll post predictions later...most fights don't have lines on Bodog yet. Right now I'm fairly confident in both Penn and Gonzaga...if you want to bet an underdog bet on Rivera. They're juicing that fight like crazy, so a BUNCH of early money must have gone down on Grove. I think he's probably the favorite and probably wins the fight, but the odds don't reflect the relative skills of the two fighters.

Over/Under for number of fighters on this card I've ever heard of set at +/- 3.5

Odds on me purchasing this +1,250
(plus, isn't it on at like 3 in the afternoon or something?? - if so, odds go to +5000)

Anyone see any value on Werdum here? just curious.. Uggh I hate that BJ is -285....I think if he drops down to -200 I'll bet him, and if Joe moves up to +300 or better I'll bet small on him. As it stands, I wouldn't bet the fight...

Eeew at these fights/lines...they're really bad, I don't think Kendall is losing, I really can't see this donkey beating him....but laying that much action on someone just goes against everything I believe in MMA betting...5k to win 1k? Why are these guys even fighting anyway? Rivera has lost to any half way decent UFC guy and Kedall would probably crush him, but he did get KO'd last time by cote and might come in scared, does Rivera have enough of a punchers chance to justify a small bet? hopefully the lines get better ...

Unfortunately none at all...Gonzaga's a black belt in BJJ (and I thought I remembered reading that he was a world champion or something, but I can't find it now), and is probably perfectly happy to stand up here.

That being said, Werdum won the original fight between the two back in 2003, and 6 of his 9 wins come by submission (including Aleksander Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, and Roman Zentsov). I don't want to talk you out of it, but I personally wouldn't do it.

Edit: These appear to be the links to the three rounds of the original Werdum/Gonzaga fight. Watch 'em while you can.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-i6Sc9KC1M...feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WGtf9H4dew

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_BVWOR6vQE

I watched Round 1 and Round 3, and it's amazing how vulnerable Gonzaga is in the clinch. Couture beat him there, and so did Werdum. I'm starting to come around to the "there might be value in Werdum" camp, although the Gonzaga in that video is not likely to be the Gonzaga who comes in to the octagon. I bet Dana's hoping Werdum can pull off the upset though - he needs an untainted heavyweight, and he needs some good to come out of signing Cro Cop.

The Penn line is going in the direction of making Stevenson a bigger dog - I think he opened up at around -200, and I really don't see it getting better. You might get Stevenson at +300, and I wouldn't discourage that bet. Joe Stevenson's a tough guy, and BJ is BJ...you never know what you're going to get with him, so I feel like he has a bigger fluke loss factor than anyone else.




Of the three fights, I think Rivera's the best bet (although I don't think he wins). Rivera holds victories of Edwin DeWees, Dennis Hallman, David Louiseau, and Travis Lutter. None of them are great, and most of those wins are several years ago, but I'm not sure that Kendall Grove is really above that class of fighter.

I didn't know this, but Grove is apparently training with Xtreme Couture. Being in that stable of fighters can't hurt, although I've never been sold on Randy Couture's coaching abilities.

I'm tempted to put half of a bet on Rivera because of a puncher's chance...but I'm not confident in that.

It's a bit of a state that card.. I want to see the undercard fight with Per Eklund as I've trained with him.. Experienced and methodical.

Personally I'd bet on Stevenson but I'm too much of a BJ fan to pull the trigger on that one. I'm sure I'll end up putting a big one on BJ and lose

right, but, it will build up a massive buy rate and make jackson as big of a star here that he desevers to be. this is just smart marketing on UFCs part

I'd disagree with that - I think to make Jackson a star they just have to put him out on the media a few times, not take him out of action for the next 6 months because of TUF. Meanwhile, the 205 division is the most talented division in the sport and they're not going to start working through some of those dream matches for quite a while.

Untainted? Do you remember his fight with Arlovski last April? It made Arlovski/Sylvia III look like Liddell/Wandy. Unless he comes out a different fighter he has zero shot against Gonzaga.



I too am looking forward to catching that Eklund fight somewhere on the web. He is solid and a great addition to an already stacked division.

The heavyweight division in the UFC has always sucked...even back when there were only two divisions the lightweight division was generally better. Werdum comes in without having lost to Gonzaga, Sylvia, or Couture - that makes him the best non-Nogueira option for the heavyweight title right now unfortunately. Not a great option, but a decent one...

they replayed UFC 70 last night on Spike. Good lord did Cro Cop take a kick to the head from Gonzaga. Looked like he snapped his ankle and tore up his knee getting knocked out. Pardon my "behind the times" posting.

That and Rashad Evans Kick to Salmons head gotta be the 2 biggest KO's from last year. Gotta love the head kick.

How 'bout that armbar Royce slapped on Hackney?

you do realize that this is the point of booking right. HOlding off on some of these matches will allow bigger build up and thus, bigger buy rates

In the meantime, you have to put these fighters in the octagon and give them matches. Every time they fight, they risk a loss. If they lose, you lose a dream match.

I don't care about the spin for Liddell vs. Silva - that match was much more attractive as a unification match. Dana et. al couldn't book the match as a unification fight, both fighters lost two matches in a row, and now instead of crowning Chuck Liddell the undisputed best 205 pounder in the world he's better than Silva but not as good as Rampage or Keith Jardine (he's better than Jardine, but he has to prove it). Go back to Ortiz vs. Belfort a few years ago - same thing. Or even Ortiz vs. Liddell.

This is especially true with Machida - he consistently has put on some of the least interesting fights on every UFC card he's been on, and has never finished a UFC fight until last week. He's incredibly hot right now and is coming off a huge victory over the guy who was supposed to dominate the 205 pound division. Meanwhile Dana has the choice of either having him sit around for the next 12 months waiting for Rampage and Griffin to be done with their "feud," or put him back in the ring and remind people how boring he is. We also have to wait for Liddell vs. Jackson 3, and Chuck's not getting any younger. Every month that goes by where Chuck isn't in the title picture is one more month where his reflexes slow down and he becomes obsolete as a UFC fighter. Wanderlei isn't quite that old yet, but he likely won't be back in the title picture until he's 33 years old. Wandy vs. Rampage does a huge buyrate, but what are the odds that Rampage can hold on to the belt until then?

Delaying on matches when there's not a huge backlog is a good thing, but that's not the case in the 205 pound weight class. If we were talking Faber vs. Pulver in the WEC I'd be completely with you. DEFINITELY the case with an incredibly vulnerable face champion like Matt Serra. The longer he can hold on to the belt the better. But 205 is the wrong weight class to do it.

spider, Rampage doing TUF would only really prevent him from doing 1 fight as it's generally on a 4-7 month cycle for fights in a year, so this would maybe hold off 1 fight for them too. this is nowhere near as dire as you are trying to make it sound and will result in much bigger business. It won't be a 12 month wait for Lyoto as he'd get the next match, and quite frankly it wouldn't be a bad idea to have him up against a tomato can type so that he could get another possible finish to a fight. The 205 division still needs to sort itself out with some fights, so having Jackson vs Forrest like this allows that to happen, and again, it will do a massive buy rate because we will have two of the most charismatic fighters on TV as coaches.

can you honestly say that just having a regular match between Griffen and Jackson will do as big of a buy rate as having them on TUF and then having a PPV match, cause if you are trying to say that, then you are dead wrong. Also, a match between Lyoto and Jackson or Griffen won't do big business, so they'd have to pair that up with another big match. Lyoto v Jackson is only a hardcore's "dream match" and if that was the ME of a PPV, that PPV would only really be doing business based on the UFC name

you cite Jackson/Liddell 3, but Chuck needs to get another two wins to get to that and Jackson already holds the series edge on him and there isn't the hatred between them or personalities like there was in teh chuck/tito matches and tito/shamrock matches.

THe UFC isn't sacrificing any future buy rates by having Jackson and Griffen do TUF because the way that the LHW division is set up right now, they can put off some matches so that things can line up and be able to do massive business in those matches. THere are few "dream matches" as you put it, so to let the dust settle a bit would be good business

(quoting Spider)

Re: Lesnar vs. Mir, I have a few thoughts.

- Rumor is that Lesnar tried to negotiate for a title fight as his UFC debut. Dana said no to that obviously. Lesnar would only settle for a top opponent. They came up with Mir.
- If you're Brock Lesnar and you want to hand pick a heavyweight opponent, who better than Frank Mir? If I'm a top level amateur wrestler with little/no boxing experience, I'd much rather face a jiu jitsu guy than Mirko Cro Cop or Andre Arlovski.
- This is a win/win situation for Dana. If Lesnar wins, they have an instant star on their hands to lead the heavyweight division for the next 5 years. If Lesnar loses, Dana gets the satisfaction of pointing out how phony pro rasslers can't come in to the octagon and hang with a former champion well past his prime.

I think this fight is actually about as good of a matchup as Brock could get (from a legitimate heavyweight), and I have no doubt that he'll win.
[/quote]

I like Mir here as an underdog -- I think by fight time will be better value but who knows. Current futures:

UFC 80 Metro Radio Arena, England: Heavyweights
Sat 1/19 Gabriel Gonzaga vs Fabricio Werdum
12:30 PM 221 Gabriel Gonzaga -241
222 Fabricio Werdum +221
UFC 80 Metro Radio Arena, England: Lightweights
Sat 1/19 BJ Penn vs Joe Stevenson
02:00 PM 21 BJ Penn -261
22 Joe Stevenson +241
UFC 80 Metro Radio Arena, England: Middleweights
Sat 1/19 Kendall Grove vs. Jorge Rivera
12:00 PM 231 Kendall Grove -306
232 Jorge Rivera +276
UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Lightweights
Wed 1/23 Alvin Robinson vs Nate Diaz
06:00 PM 261 Alvin Robinson +151
262 Nate Diaz -161
UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Middleweights
Wed 1/23 Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedries
06:00 PM 251 Patrick Cote -126
252 Drew McFedries +116
UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Welterweights
Wed 1/23 Mike Swick vs. Josh Burkman
07:30 PM 241 Mike Swick -176
242 Josh Burkman +166
UFC 81 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Heavyweights
Sat 2/2 Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir
08:15 PM 271 Brock Lesnar -146
272 Frank Mir +136


I'd bet Mir at pick'em let alone +136, but I think with hype his odds will inflate we'll see


(quoting BigLebowski)

Hmm...I had the exact opposite thought process. Yes, Arlovski or Cro Cop could KO him, but once he got either one of them to the ground it is over. With his size he could easily bull rush either one of these guys and take them down without taking any punishment. They are both on the very light side of heavyweight. Instead, Lesnar gets someone he shouldn't be too excited about being on top of. Even an out of shape Mir is going to have the best JJ skills of any heavyweight. Cro Cop and Arlovski are really one trick ponies even though Arlovski has a little ground game, but a dedicated Mir poses a bigger danger in my opinion.


I agree with that sir

This is where I'm definitely weak- who bets when? Does internet smarks bet early, and then fanboys bet a day or two before when they get to Vegas? (Does this differ for Vegas shows vs. Columbus/England shows?) It would help to try to be able to predict how the lines would go.

Right now I like all three favorites for UFC 80. If someone held a gun to my head and said that I have to bet an underdog I'd torn between Rivera and Werdum...I'm leaning toward Werdum because I think he's overrated after the head kick of death to Cro Cop, but really I don't think any of the underdogs are worth a bet, and the lines are too high on the favorites to really warrant a bet. I'll probably sit this one out.

As for Ultimate Fight Night - if anyone cares I think Cote's a good bet, wouldn't bet on Diaz vs. Robinson, and *may* find some value in Burkman as the underdog against Mike Swick.

I'm sticking with Lesnar over Mir. Mir's dangerous, but I think Lesnar's had plenty of time to train to avoid submissions. One reason Mir is a good fight for him is that he really only needs to train his sub defense - he doesn't really have to worry too much about striking.

---------------------------------

On an unrelated note, I was looking at Lesnar's Wiki to see where he was training and they had 90 references listed. I just sent an article off for peer review in an academic journal and didn't have 90 references...ponderous.

---------------------------------

Betting on another fight:

Kimbo Slice -330
Tank Abbott +280

Nope...still no value in the underdog here.

Agree with 90% of this. I think a play on Diaz is OK.



And this!!!!!

the news comes out that undefeated UFC light heavyweight Lyoto Machida (12-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) has been offered a fight with former UFC champ Tito Ortiz (15-5-1 MMA, 14-5-1 UFC).

Ed Soares, the manager for Machida, today told MMAWeekly.com that his fighter had been offered a fight with Ortiz — yes, they’ve accepted — and that they’re simply awaiting word on whether Ortiz has accepted the fight.

This could be a goldmine in favor of Machida.

Did you guys see this fight from K1 on New Years? I have never seen such a large asian man fight before. It's kind of incredible. I won't spoil the fight - but wow..

http://myvideofight.com/video/k-1/k-1-2007...choi/index.html

Yes, Hong Man Choi. A known K-1 fighter. I believe he is 2.18m. If he receives better training he'll defeat Sem Schilt.

It's amazing to me that at his size he actually has some technique. He could be a force someday if someone figured out how to train guys that size properly.

I figured I'd throw down my UFC bets for this weekend before I blow it on the football games.


Hoping it will be the night of the underdog. I have no doubt they are all live.

(432) Frank Mir +140 Feb 02/08@11:30p
Competitor: (431) Brock Lesnar
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 14.00

(429) Nate Diaz -150 Jan 23/08@9:00p
Competitor: (430) Alvin Robinson
Risk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 13.33

(412) Joe Stevenson +225 Jan 19/08@5:00p
Competitor: (411) BJ Penn
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 22.50

(416) Jorge Rivera +300 Jan 19/08@3:00p
Competitor: (415) Kendall Grove
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 30.00

(414) Fabricio Werdum +215 Jan 19/08@3:00p
Competitor: (413) Gabriel Gonzaga
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 21.50



Oh, and curse Bodog live betting. I thought all Schedule A drugs were outlawed? BLB has to be on there somewhere.

I watched Braveheart again last night and it must have inspired the little person in me because I just bet all four dogs for the NFL this weekend. When's the last time you saw four playoff lines with the tightest one +8. I like em all.

I'm really struggling with these. I'm thinking about putting one bet down on each of the underdogs on the next card - if just one of them comes through and wins I'll break even, if two of them come through I'll have a really strong night. I'm fully convinced one of the underdogs will win, and if I get lucky maybe two will pull it out. Like Lebowski said, I think they're all very much live.

I'm going to skip the Diaz vs. Robinson fight, and bet on Lesnar instead of Mir.

I cant see Gonzaga losing that fight. Penn will most likely win also but I dont mind the value in Stephenson. I deffinatly wont bet the Lesnar fight. To many hyped fighters have been losing in there octagon debuts. A wrestler of his pedigree always has a good shot but I want to see him fight before I come to any conclusions.

Don't count out Stevenson, he's a very slick submission fighter.

I'm not sure about Gonzaga. I'm fairly sure he's the favorite, but I'm amazed at how vulnerable he was in the clinch 5 years ago in the first fight with Werdum, and how vulnerable he was in the clinch 6 months ago with a much smaller Randy Couture.

The underdogs are all underdogs for a reason, but I'm leaning toward there being much more value in betting them than betting the favorites.



Between his pedigree and his size I think he's the heavy favorite...really looking forward to the fight.

With those odds it's kind of like betting on all of the 12 seeds in the first round of the NCAA tournament...at least one of em always pulls it out.

I'll give some quick thoughts.

First, I think we should keep all betting lines in this thread. I know it's hard to believe, but I am a mod too, lol.

Second, this next fight is once again tough to bet. They're catching on to us. The favorites really are favorites for the most part, and I don't like the odds.

Serra vs. GSP. I like Serra and think he is a great guy, great coach, and great story. But I don't see the value in betting him. I honestly don't believe that HE thinks he can win again. Obv I could be wrong.

That's it for now.

I think your right. Before the Hughes/GSP fight Serra said he never thought he would root for Hughes but he was against GSP. Ive heard Serra on extended interviews on the Bubba the Love Sponge show and he seems like a real cool guy. but I think he loses to GSP 9 times out of 10. I just hope that if he does lose to GSP Hughes sticks around for a Serra fight as a swan song.

I've been playing in a live game recently where one of the regs used to be an MMA manager, he used to manage Chris Leben and Stevenson. fwiw he said that stevensen is going to beat BJ, the line at Venetian was +250 for him and he said that was huge value, granted the dude was his manager and might be making an emotional bet, here are some of the arguments he made:

-Stevenson's BJJ is just as good, if not better than BJ's (I find this hard to believe) ...he did admit that BJ was a better striker but he said that it is very unlikely that the fight stays standing for too long.

-Stevenson's conditioning is way better than BJ's and the fight is 5 rounds, so if it goes to round 3 he thinks bj is a huge dog

-BJ looked bad in his last fight against whats his face (pulver?)

I dunno, I still think betting that fight at +220 for stevenson is very marginal....just wanted to post what that guy said to see what you guys thought.

I've actually been thinking about this fight.

Stevenson's BJJ is not as good as Penn's, but he might be able to neutralize the bjj situation. Stand up goes to Penn.

The x factor is the fact that it's a five round fight. Penn's cardio is always suspect.

One of the reasons that I believe that I have an edge in mma handicapping is because I constantly look for how someone can win a fight.

I'm not sure how I see Stevenson winning this unless Penn gasses.

Ironically, because BJ is not a great 5 round fighter, there is value in betting Stevenson......

FWIW, my thoughts paralled the guy in JC's home game and that is why I put a small bet on Stevenson. I see no way Joedaddy wins this in rounds 1-3. If he is active enough to keep BJ moving I think he has the distinct advantage in rounds 4 and 5. We haven't seen much of Joedaddy's standup, but he did put Guillard on his ass before finishing him. He's still at +225 on bodog which is the best I have seen and that puts him at 30% to win. I like it.

I think Joedaddy doesn't get enough credit in a very deep division so I am looking forward to see where he is at. The only way I will be surprised by any outcome in this fight is if Joe wins in rounds 1 or 2 barring any injuries.

Oh, and to say Joe's BJJ is in the same zip code as Penn's is just asinine. Penn wasn't given the name "prodigy" by the Brazilians because of his intellect.

Mir is down to +125 after starting at +160 too. Lots of action against Lesnar on that one so far.

The following are the latest online betting odds for this Saturday's UFC 80 "Rapid Fire" event in the UK. The numbers come from betting site Sportsbook.com:

B.J. Penn (-290) vs. Joe Stevenson (+235)
Gabriel Gonzaga (-325) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+250)
Marcus Davis (-350) vs. Jess Liaudin (+275)
Kendall Grove (-350) vs. Jorge Rivera (+250)
Wilson Gouveia (-145) vs. Jason Lambert (+155)

bet this line obscenely hard

reasoning?

After the weigh in I put more money on Eklund (As cut as Stout looks I think Eklund's strength and better ground game will decide this one) and Werdum (didn't like how GG looked and I think Werdum's striking will be too much) and reversed my Lambert bet with a bet on Gouveia (Gouveia has a great chin and he looked a LOT bigger than I remember him being).
As much as I like Davis I made a small play on Laudin at +285. It just doesn't seem like that huge of a mismatch.

BJ looked as good as I have ever seen him look, but I let my small play on Stevenson ride. I think JoeDaddy is going to be in for a rough night.

The only line that moved against my original plays was the Stevenson line and that came after the BJ training show on Spike and another move after the weigh ins. Apparently there were a lot of people impressed with BJ's training this go around.

Here are my final bets for the fights today.

(442) Per Eklund +200 Sat@12:00p
Competitor: (441) Sam Stout
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 20.00

(442) Per Eklund +260 Sat@12:00p
Competitor: (441) Sam Stout
Risk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 52.00

HAVE NO IDEA WHY I BET SAKARA...don't even remember betting this one. I wish I could have it back.
(439) Alessio Sakara -135 Sat@12:00p
Competitor: (440) James Lee
Risk US$ 30.00 to win US$ 22.22

(437) Wilson Gouveia -145 Sat@3:00p
Competitor: (438) Jason Lambert
Risk US$ 40.00 to win US$ 27.59

(436) Jess Liaudin +285 Sat@3:00p
Competitor: (435) Marcus Davis
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 28.50

(438) Jason Lambert +115 Sat@3:00p
Competitor: (437) Wilson Gouveia
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 11.50

(444) Colin Robinson +265 Sat@12:00p
Competitor: (443) Antonio Hardonk
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 26.50

(412) Joe Stevenson +225 Sat@5:00p
Competitor: (411) BJ Penn
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 22.50

(416) Jorge Rivera +300 Sat@3:00p
Competitor: (415) Kendall Grove
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 30.00

(414) Fabricio Werdum +200 Sat@3:00p
Competitor: (413) Gabriel Gonzaga
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 20.00

(414) Fabricio Werdum +215 Sat@3:00p
Competitor: (413) Gabriel Gonzaga
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 21.50

NFL bets

(305) New York Giants vs. (306) Green Bay Packers Over 40½ (-105) Sun@6:30p
(306) Green Bay Packers -7½ (-105) Sun@6:30p
Competitor: (305) New York Giants
Risk US$ 5.00 to win US$ 14.06

(306) Green Bay Packers -7½ (-105) Sun@6:30p
Competitor: (305) New York Giants
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 9.52

(303) San Diego Chargers +14 (-115) Sun@3:00p
Competitor: (304) New England Patriots
Risk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 8.70

UFC
risking $170 to win $282.31 (but can't win all of them because of the both side betting in one of them)

NFL
risking $25 to win $32.28

I just thought someone might wantr to see these. I have no idea how they work.

****SPOILERS BELOW****

Holy shit was this a good day to bet on the underdogs...I bet $50 each on Werdum, Stevenson, and Rivera. Life is good.