PrtyPSux
Wednesday, December 26th, 2007, 4:35 PM
QUOTE (BigLebowski @ Wednesday, December 26th, 2007, 6:59 PM)

I just started reading off topic over at 2+2 so I'm not sure if Performify usually posts his picks there, but here they are:
Performify's UFC79 picksPerformify always posts his picks, and I've hated them since I started reading his stuff. I hear he's made a decent amount though and he probably understands the game/sports betting better than I do. Ever since the Lidell v Rampage fight he's blown his balls betting huge on Favs to win very little when they're probably more of a coinflip... Most of his picks that I've chosen the other side on, have gotten crushed, Lidell v Ramapge, Cro Cop against Kongo, Alexander Vs Thiago, I think he picked Shogun to beat Forrest too.... In either case he goes totally against my strat of betting the dog, this dude bets nearly every paper favorite and chooses no bet on everything else.
Maybe I've been struck by the variance monster but I've never really lost money in a card so I'll continue to bet whats working for me....picks of his that I don't particularly like are:
Melvin Guillard
not playing the Gambuyrian fight (I'd bet tiny on the nate mohr and hope Manny gets his shoulder seperated)
and I think betting dean Lister at -350 is dumb. I'll bet tiny again on the +280
From the lines he posted, assuming they won't change (they will) My bets will probably go as follows:
$500 on Chuck
- I have 500 already on Hughes at +160, so 500 to win 800, I bet this assuming the line would drop closer to even the day of the fight....I still think it will, and am hoping to get GSP as a small fav, in which case I'll bet big to guarantee myself a small loss or a decent win.
Soku I don't know about, right now on bodog they're -125 machinda and -105 Soku....I wouldn't bet that if that is the final line on fight night...
I'll probably bet my biggest on Clementi, I have a feeling +200 is way too good to pass up....I'll bet somewhere between 1k and 500...probably $800
I'll bet Palelei as long as Sanchez is worse than +150 $300....
I'll bet like 200 on James Irvin at +160
I'll bet $200 on Mohr at +350 ( I know Manny prob wins but theres literally 0 shot that I ever bet anyone at -500 unless the card says "Anderson "The Spider" Silva VS Justin "Looshle" Pechie" )
$500 on Radev at +280 this will be my heavy dog bet for the night, going by what spider guard said and the fact that the line is so unreal that I think Radev is definite value here.
I'll bet on Carneiro as long as the line stays how it is on bodog -130 on Carneiro Even on De souza ...probably bet 390 on him
Im torn on the Bocek or whatever fight, I don't know anyone, Boceck seems like he has the edge but he's -130 on bodog, but Evans is at +105 and it seems like it's a very close fight, I might bet 285 on Evans,
As it stands I'm pretty much throwing approx 1500 on 3 big dogs, as long as Clementi or Radev book the upset I win money or break even on those, if mohr wins and clementi and Radev lose I only lose a little bit however if I can book wins on 2 out of the 3 dogs (seems more possible than usual this time) I'll win huge, and probably lock up a win for the night. I don't mind my Hughes bet, but I don't like it either knowing he's going at +190 now when I thought the line would go the other way..,..however if Hughes goes above +250 I might even put more money on him if it goes backwards to where GSP is somewhere around -130 I'll bet huge on GSP, this can feasibly happen on Fight night at Mandalay. So pretty much as of now I'll bet around $3700 on this card ...If I can lock up one of the two main fights, that is between 1k-1.3k payed back to me, If I can pull through in one of my 2 big dog bets (Clementi or Radev) that is about 1900-2400 back depending on which one wins. so as long as one of each win I pretty much freeroll the rest of the night. The ideal situation would be to see Clementi AND Radev both win and then I freeroll my balls off on everything else. I actually really like my picks here, I'm hoping the lines don't change for the worse, so I'll probably go lock up the ones that I think will change tomorrow night at Mandalay. I'll wait till the day of the fight for the GSP, Chuck, and Soku fights see if I can get some sicko odds.
What do u guys think?