Isn't 80 going to be another PP that takes place overseas?

Yeah, but they're going to make us Americans pay for it

I think the theory is that they can get away with weak cards for the UK PPVs because there's not much competition for the sports entertainment dollar. I know the WWE does basically the same thing, although I would imagine the production costs go way up.

Am I the only one really excited about Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar scheduled for UFC 81?



Teach me how to pwn please, thanks



Silva-Liddell is going to be a great fight - hopefully it lasts a couple rounds. Two guys wildly swinging at each other, trying to knock each other's heads off...gonna be great. Reminds me of the Jim Brown quote from one of the early shows - "I didn't see technique, I just saw swinging."

Pwning is easy....

A. Get Aces deep and flat call early raises....jump for joy when u induce shove behind AND utg to shove as well.
B. Luckbox way to FT

It's just that easy!!!

=)

I will be very disapointed if Liddell or Silva DON'T end up twitching on the canvas or get that lost "where the phuck am i?" look on their face!!!

I think the 80 card isn't all that bad, I love watching BJ fight though...I also like Grove a lot, but you're saying you'd bet Rivera?

As for the Mir vs Lesnar fight, that should be good, I like seeing how Lesnar trains and he's definitely a top Athlete, no clue how he'd do in MMA though. I'll prob be at that fight too.

and lolz @ Jim Brown, I remember that guy....Rogan has a great bit on him in his stand up.

I was super unclear in that last post...which is why I'm avoiding doing my real writing work to talk MMA on a poker message board

I meant to say I'd definitely bet Grove, especially because I think he'll be the betting line underdog against Rivera. I think Dana wants to protect Grove as much as he can, and Rivera has not looked impressive since beating Loiseau way back in the day.

(The more I think about it, the more I think Kendall Grove will be the betting favorite...I don't know...I wish I knew more about how the MMA lines start and how they change)



Brock's MMA debut:

http://media.putfile.com/Lesnar-vs-Kim-K1

I'unno...didn't show much at all, but those punches did look kinda scary. Mir's an interesting test, but I can see the logic. Mir hasn't shown that he'll be able to hurt Lesnar standing, so he'll have to go to the ground. We'll see what kind of sub defense Brock has this early in his career.

Rogan's an incredibly underrated stand up. His UFC commentary is good too, although I always get a laugh out of him when he tries to go in to play by play mode.

"Stevenson has an arm trapped. HE HAS THE ARMBAR LOCKED IN. IF PENN DOESN'T TAP SOON HIS ARM IS GOING TO GET RIPPED OUT OF THE SOCKET IF BJ PENN DOESN'T SUBMIT HE IS LITERALLY GOING TO DI..... ok he's back in closed guard

The check's in the mail



The best part is that Chuck has that look on his face normally - when Rampage knocked him out it was sooooo much funnier~!

BJ is one of the most underrated fighters imo. The guy is insanely talented. He has much more talent than Matt Hughes. Don't get me wrong, I like Matt Hughes, but BJ is a true mixed martial artist. Matt is an athlete as you stated in your thread.

BJ was totally dominating the fight with Hughes. But that's neither here nor there.

I must say that I think you are dead wrong about St. Pierre. The guy is a true talent as an MMA fighter, but is also one of the best athletes the UFC has ever seen. He has a pace that is unreal. If he brings his A game, I give Hughes zero chance of winning.

Now here is the x factor. Heart. That to me is more of a concern than athlete vs technician. I know that Hughes has a huge heart. All the guys from his camp do. I "think" that George has great heart. But his head has to be in the right place.

A lot of UFC fights are decided by heart. I know that sounds crazy. But Forrest Griffin is an amazing example. There is no way he should have beaten Shogun. Forrest is not an athlete, and he isn't an "amazing" mma fighter. He is kind of like "Rudy". He will not quit. That makes for one hell of a fight.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone say BJ is underrated.

I agree with S7S about Hughes having little to no chance to win vs. GSP. During the TUF series Hughes never looked like the hungry motivated fighter that he would need to be...he was crying and moaning about maybe only having a couple fights left and blah blah blah. If the odds stay where they are I think GSP is a good value.

I think the heart is going to be the deciding factor in this one - I really don't think St. Pierre is going to want this as badly as Hughes does. Never underestimate how much hating to lose can motivate someone. John McEnroe didn't care so much about winning as he hated losing. Hughes is in the same boat there I think.

Either way it's going to be a great fight...really too close to call, which is why I'm sticking with betting the underdog.

Forrest is far more talented than he gets credit for...I don't see it either, but he must be to beat Shogun and to hang with Tito as well as he did. Either that or he's just too stupid to feel pain

Some guy made a series of really awful (but funny) YouTube videos simulating UFC fights. Shogun vs. Griffin is probably the funniest: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sbiZhpOriY

All of you who think RTS is going to run over Machida better hop on sportsinteraction. He is +110.

Wow, just saw Kendall opened at -500 on Bodog. BOOOOOOO



You're kidding right? GSP wants Serra so bad and he knows the only way he can get there is to run through Hughes. I don't think GSP gets up for every fight as witnessed by the first one with Serra, but he always comes to fight when he knows he will have his hands full so I expect his head to be 100% into this one.

Might be worth betting on Rivera now...I tend to think there's very few bets that aren't +EV at those odds. I'm still kicking myself for being too lazy to bet on Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop...............................................




I'm not denying that GSP wants a rematch with Serra. But with Hughes saying he only has a couple more fights in him, I have to think that his career is literally over if he doesn't win this fight. Add to that his legitimate hatred of Matt Serra and what Serra calls the dumb high school jock pride, I would have to think Hughes wants it more.

But like I've said, this is a close fight - closer than the betting line indicates. Betting Hughes as the underdog seems like the smart play to me.

Yeah, I like GSP in the fight, but I agree about the odds I have seen. I'm torn because I just don't see how Hughes can win this fight, but I hate betting anyone that is >-200 against the caliber of fighter that Hughes is. I think my severe dislike of Hughes and his high school jock mentality (and that's coming from a high school jock who pretty much had that mentality) clouds my vision of this fight.

I see Hughes vs. Serra still happening around June of 08 after GSP take out Serra in March.

How did I miss all of this? From the Wrestling Observer site:



http://www.wrestlingobserver.com/wo/news/h...t.asp?aID=21630

I didn't know they'd officially scheduled Silva vs. Henderson...I'm maybe more interested in that main event than I am Wanderlei/Liddell.

They scheduled that a while ago.

lol this could be big, but I have doubts it'll ever happen:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/ne...tory?id=3165552

Well, the fight is a week away. It seems like the only real lock we have right now is Manny.

Everyone has made great points about various fighters. I think someone posted that Machida beat Rich Franklin. That changes things quite a bit imo.

The funny thing about UFC, is that upsets happen so much more frequently than in any other sporting organziation. Or at least it seems that way to me.

The Silva-Lidell fight is tough to call. JC provided this hillarious interview with Chuck on a morning news station where Chuck is completely plastered. To say the guy might have a drinking problem, could be an understatement. We did see Vanderlei at the last UFC and he looked awful in real life. Sigh.

I obv still like GSP, nothing has changed there. Of course an upset is always a possibility. But I don't see that happening. In essence, I might be putting most of my action on the Hughes vs St Pierrre fight. So far that is the one that I feel most comfortable with. I can only hope that I get decent odds. I "think" that Hughes started his own team and camp called the Hit Squad. If this is the case, I like George even more. The one thing that Hughes will have going for him is improved stand up. He will be training with Robby Lawler who is a good striker. If St. Pierre gets Hughes to his back like he did with Kos, this fight is a cake walk. Wrestlers are horrible off their back.

My focus for this next week is to play very little poker, and to get to know as much as I can about each fighter. I would GREATLY appreciate any and all additional help that is provided.

I can assure you that the experience that JC, Adam and I bring to the table as far as our one on one poker coaching goes will more than compensate for that research on your end.

For the record, I really am grateful for everything that you guys have done so far. Our work is not done yet. Please just bear with me for this next week and hopefully we can all come out ahead on this one.

Thanks again.

Steve

Just how sick ARE these seats that you have?? You seem to be taking this VERY seriously... (envious, obv)

Really looking forward to Machida - Sokoudjou. Machida's standup skills are insane and all we've seen from Sokoudjou was some very fast KO's, this could be fireworks.

Forgive me - I'm going to post a bunch of random thoughts in this post...good luck trying to read it.

Quick note: Machida's win over Franklin was in PRIDE back on the 2003 New Year's Eve show. It was Franklin's first loss, but it was also a long time ago, in a ring.

The UFC had a really weird year last year. Cro Cop losing twice, Couture beating Sylvia, Serra beating GSP, Herring losing to some guy so tough that I can't even remember his name...a bunch of it was variance catching up with the UFC for the lack of upsets in the previous years, but a really really weird year. Makes for a potentially very exciting 2008. So many good cards already, and we're not even finished with 2007 yet.

Anyone hear anything about Couture coming back? The rumor I heard somewhere is that Dana has promised to get him a fight with Fedor if he's willing to defend against Nog, but I don't think I heard that anywhere reliable.

If this is the interview I'm thinking of, it was before one of his last two fights and yeah...it was interesting I think that's what makes Chuck the favorite in the Silva fight - the rumors you hear are that he was out partying the night before the Jackson fight, and was obviously drunk in that interview (and a couple others...although less so). I would be surprised if he wasn't taking this fight far more seriously than the last couple. He looked much better on Dennis Miller, although was outshone by the goofy charisma of Forrest Griffin.



Mayweather would be an interesting story - Mercer did horribly against Kimbo (and was actually outstruck by him if I remember correctly), and I'm not sure that Mayweather's style isn't necessarily the most conducive to MMA. But at the same time, if he gets with the right camp and with the right first couple opponents it could be really interesting. We never have gotten that top level (American) boxer in MMA...it will draw some huge attention if it's done right.



There were whacky rumors about Hughes having to leave Miletic because someone slept with someone else's wife (I forget who...). I have no idea if they were true, but they were certainly going around quite a bit for a while.

Be careful underestimating Hughes's submission ability. Almost half of his wins come by submission (including the first one over St. Pierre), although I don't remember any that came from the back. He'll also be ready for St. Pierre to come at him - I think St. Pierre just surprised Koscheck, who didn't think anyone would be crazy enough to try to take him down. I would have loved to have heard the locker room conversation after - must have sounded like some Phil Hellmuth after a botched bluff. "CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT IDIOT TRIED TO TAKE ME DOWN? I'M THE BEST WRESTLER IN MMA, AND HE TRIED TO OUTWRESTLE ME? ****ING DONKEY - I WIN THAT FIGHT 95% OF THE TIME."

But in St. Pierre's favor, be careful overestimating Robbie Lawler's striking - he hits hard and is a tough sonofabitch, but he isn't the guy I'd want teaching me how to box. GSP is an incredible kickboxer, and I don't know what Hughes is doing in training to fight that.

Fun thread - makes me more excited for the show next week.

Here's my random thoughts spurred by spiders random thoughts.

Agree about the Machida vs Franklin fight. That was too long ago and under different rules to give it any credence when trying to do MMAth. However, I truly believe Machida will not lose a fight mentally. He is one of the smartest MMA fighters out there. He is a counter puncher though which leads to a lot of boring fights.

About Couture vs Fedor. I don't think this ever happens while only one fighter is associated with the UFC. Dana is too much of a pompous self-centered prick to let another org piggy back off of what he has helped build. In a way I can't blame him, but there is just WAY TOO MUCH money involved in this one to pass up the opportunity IMO.

That video of Liddell was taped about a week before the Rampage fight. His partying habits are legendary and have been known for as long as I can remember, but from all accounts it sounds like he is taking his fight with Silva as serious as he can.

Mayweather in the MMA would be very interesting, but I don't think he will ever be top 5 in either 145 or 155. I certainly don't see him ever beating someone the caliber of Sherk or Faber. Floyd is about the money and there is no way he can make $50M a year like he did last year. I know he won't get De La Hoya again, but the money in boxing still is far superior to MMA. Can't really use Ray Mercer as a gauge of a boxer's MMA capability.

Hughes has trained with Lawler for a long time now so I don't expect his standup to be that much more improved over his last couple of fights. First I have heard about alleged infidelity issues in the Miletich camp. That didn't come from the Sherdog forums did it? As much as I dislike Hughes I do not believe he would ever sleep with someone elses wife.

Hughes does have good subs, but he can't fight off of his back...period. He might be able to defend against worse comp, but he has no offense against someone as good as GSP. See: Koscheck vs GSP.

IMHO Koscheck was a complete tool for thinking GSP wasn't going to try to take him down. GSP didn't want to take another chance of a fluke KO so what's the best thing to do against a world class wrestler? Put him on his back...often.

My random thoughts spurred by BL's random thoughts which were spurred by ...ah **** it



Agreed on all of this. I'm not sure I'd want to be a counter-puncher against Sokoudjou though...he's just a scary scary man.

Agreed as well - although Dana hasn't completely buried Randy dead yet. He wouldn't let the UFC Preview show Silva at Xtreme Couture (by the way - Silva's training with Xtreme Couture for this fight...not sure anyone's more qualified to talk about beating Chuck Liddell than Randy Couture), but he showed Randy's domination of Tim Sylvia the other night on Unleashed. It's a weird world Dana White lives in.

I think Fedor's afraid to fight Couture honestly - I think he made a bunch of ridiculous demands knowing Dana would never agree, and then lets Dana take the fall for not making the fight.

Anyone who hasn't seen Fedor vs. Randleman should check it out. Hit me up with a PM if you can't find it somewhere on the internet.



Gonna be a great, great fight. Like Vick said - someone's going to get killed dead.

Add Pulver to that list at 145 (Pulver vs. Faber will be sick someday), and a half dozen guys at 155. I'm not sure why he'd want to do MMA personally, but if he does he should give Fabricio Werdum a call.




I don't read Sherdog, but I have no clue where the original rumors came from...not sure I buy them at all, but I read them at a generally reputable source.

At the same time, does GSP want to take Hughes to the ground? I have to think Hughes has been training his sweeps hard for this fight, and I don't know that GSP can keep Hughes down if he wants to. I really don't know what I'd do if I were GSP in this fight, and I think that's why I can't bring myself to pick him to win.

I was doing a quick check on GSP's bio for his JJ background, and had no idea is younger than I am...damn I'm old. (By the way - the answer is that he's a brown belt under Renzo Gracie)



FYP...and QFT I'm waiting for the day Dana loses his hard-on for amateur wrestlers and realizes Koscheck is a one-dimensional snoozefest.

My favorite Koscheck moment was when he knocked some guy out and in the post-fight interview says something like "Hopefully this will shut all the people on the internet up who say I'm boring."

Joe Rogan looked at him sort of confused for a minute and sort of sarcastically says "That's Josh Koscheck everyone...talking smack about the internet."

Here's my rundown of the fights. Going to be out of town for a while and not sure I will get to post closer to the fights.

Matt Hughes Vs. Georges St-Pierre

I just can't bring myself to bet on Hughes. The best odds I can find on GSP is -200 on Bodog. Hughes can work on his sweeps all he wants. GSP has incredible balance and top position control and Hughes will not be able to get up with GSP on top as long as GSP stays calm and doesn't try to do too much. Again, I see GSP coming very prepared even taking this on short notice and I can't see any way Hughes beats a well prepared GSP. I am not sure I would put money on this one, but if I did it would be out of spite and not because I think there is good value.

Chuck Liddell Vs. Wanderlei Silva

This one is so tight. Classic battle of a guy who pushes the action vs a counter puncher. This could be a 3 round war or a quick brutal KO. Silva is going to have a bunch of ring rust with only 2 fights in the last 18 months and of course both being brutal KO losses. I have read he is looking extremely sharp in training and I'm pretty sure he is training with Randy at xtremeCouture. Chuck knows this fight is for his career so he will be coming to the Bellagio buffet on an empty stomach....extremely hungry looking to tear up several plates of crab legs. He certainly won't be as hesitant as he was against Jardine. That being said, I think a play on Silva is the best bet here. He won't get knocked out by one punch and has weathered some pretty serious storms to come back and win. -120 on sportsinteraction is the best I can find right now and I think that is decent value. I think the line moves in favor of Silva closer to fight time so I would hold off hoping to get -105 or even money. I know this opposite of what I said a few pages ago, but upon further research.....

Lyoto Machida Vs. Rameau Sokoudjou

Machida will not be intimidated at all by RTS. Not saying Little Nog (Minotoro) or Arona are walkovers, but I do think both are a touch overrated and both almost certainly didn't take RTS serious while training. Also, I am not saying RTS juiced over in Japan, but I think it is within his range to factor it in. If you want to factor in Machida's win vs Rich Franklin in Dec. 03, don't forget he beat BJ Penn in March 05. Of course BJ was giving up some weight, but still a solid win. The best odds I can find on Machida right now is -130 on Bodog and I like that. I don't think it will get much better either. As I have said several times, Machida is an extremely smart fighter and although he doesn't always give the crowd a spectacular fight, he def knows how to win. RTS is training with TeamQuest, but he is by far the best standup guy there so I am not sure how much training there will help because I don't see this one going to the ground.

Rich Clementi Vs. Melvin Guillard

I simply don't know how the books have Guillard such a huge favorite here. He has only fought once in the last 15 months and that was a 27 second loss to Joe Daddy. Guillard is a tough cookie and super atheletic, but I don't think Clementi is going to try to stand with him. I see Clementi taking this one to the ground and submitting Guillard. Six of seven Guillard losses have come by chokes and Clementi has chocked out 3 of his last 4 opponents and has 13 subs overall. Clementi is +200 on Bodog and could be the steal of the night.


I can't find any betting odds on the dark fights....


Soa Palelei Vs. Eddie Sanchez

One fight listed for Palelei since 2004 and that is a 5 second KO. That won't happen against Sanchez. It looks like Sanchez will be giving up some weight here. Unfortunately, I can't find much info on Palelei outside of the UFC website. It looks like he is training with TeamQuest and his nickname is "The Hulk". I like JC's underdog betting strategy here. If the newbie comes in as a heavy underdog I think it is the right play. Sorry, not much info different that what Spider already posted. JC has to bet on Sanchez just because he is the "manic hispanic".

Luis Cane Vs. James Irvin

Again, can't find much info on Cane, but from what I have found bet him heavy. He is most likely to come in as an underdog when in fact I think he might be the favorite. It looks like he is no slouch on his feet (6 KO's in 7 fights) and will make Irvin look silly on the ground. I <3 a heavy bet on Cane as this is the steal of the night, but I say that without any odds to work with and assuming he will be the dog.

Nate Mohr Vs. Manny Gamburyan

Mohr is a golden glove winner with a good reach advantage. I don't care. Manny will win, but I don't think the odds on this one will make it financially responsible to bet. If Mohr is +300 or worse it might be worth a small play, but I probably stay away from this one altogether. If Manny is -250 or better I like it.

Jordan Radev Vs. Dean Lister

Classic wrestler vs BJJ matchup. This one could surprise everyone though and stay standing for a while. Whoever starts to lose in that game will promptly look to take it to the ground. Lister will welcome Radev into his guard and although Lister is world class BJJ I would be hesitant to put an Olympic wrestler on top of me. I think the UFC.com writeup put it best when they said if Radev makes a mistake Lister will punish him for it, but Marquardt just abused Lister on the ground. Radev is no Marquardt, but we really haven't seen what Radev is capable of yet. I like Radev at anything better than +170.

Roan Carneiro Vs. Tony DeSouza

Level 8 elf always beats level 6 dwarf. Check out their pics on UFC.com if you don't know what I mean. I give Roan a slight edge in striking and a very slight edge on the ground. They are both very good BJJ's technicians so this could be an incredible ground war. They are both susceptible to punchers and I think Roan has the advantage there, but neither one has really brought it on their feet. Desouza hasn't fought in a over a year. It looks like Roan started with American Top Team after his loss to Jon Fitch (in which he looked really good in the 1st round). Training with ATT is a step up from virtually anywhere. I like Roan anything better than -150.

Mark Bocek Vs. Doug Evans

Another BJJ vs wrestler matchup. Canadian vs might as well be Canadian. They both showed glimpses of hope, but were given really tough fights vs Frankie Edgar and Huerta to begin their UFC careers. I really have no idea on this one, but would def bet the underdog if anyone is +150 or worse. If the odds are more towards even I like Bocek for the same reasons stated by Spider.

Enjoying the read so far - one quick comment/correction:

He's training with Randy, but at Xtreme Couture (the future training center of UFC up-and-comer JC Alvarado).

-------------------

Edit: Because I REALLY don't feel like writing anything on my dissertation today:



Holy shit at those odds...bet Clementi HARD.

Anyone up for $20 winner take all pickem? Tie breaker will be best record in the 5 televised fights.

here some spreads from Pinnacle Sports

UFC 79 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Light Heavyweights
Sat 12/29 Chuck Liddell vs Wanderlei Silva
07:00 PM 3 Chuck Liddell +111
4 Wanderlei Silva -121
Sat 12/29 Lyoto Machida vs Rameau Sokoudjou
07:00 PM 5 Lyoto Machida -129
6 Rameau Sokoudjou +119
UFC 79 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Lightweights
Sat 12/29 Melvin Guillard vs Rich Clementi
07:00 PM 201 Melvin Guillard -211
202 Rich Clementi +191
UFC 79 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Welterweights
Sat 12/29 Georges St-Pierre vs Matt Hughes
08:00 PM 1 Georges St-Pierre -231
2 Matt Hughes +211


I think I would bet every dog here, they all are very live

I think you have to bet Hughes and Clementi at those lines. I can't believe that Matt Hughes is a 2:1 dog to St. Pierre when they split the two previous fights.

I'll sound like a broken record, but unless I'm completely missing something, I would think Clementi's a favorite in this fight.

Right now I think I'm going to bet $25 each on Clementi, Sokoudjou, and Hughes. Silva/Liddell is too close to call for me...if I was going live I think I'd bet on Liddell just because he'll be the crowd favorite and it's more fun to be cheering for the guy everyone else is cheering for - especially with the reaction I have to think Liddell's going to get.

I'll probably bet huge on Clementi at those odds if they're still like that when I go bet at Mandalay and a decent amount on Soku....In fact, the more I think about it the more I think most of my money will go on the undercard fights and very small part of it in the two main fights, they're too swingy...Is there any way to get my bet back from bodog? lol I feel ripped off seeing hughes at +200

Probably the smart way to go - I don't know that I'm really confident in either of the mains.

I'm shocked the money line went in that direction - I really thought you were getting a good value at 160. You can thank ol'number7 for bringing that to your attention

yea I coulda sworn the lines would have Hughes as a fav at some point...maybe they still will, but +200 is pretty sick for now.

It's really starting to make me feel like there's something I'm just missing here. Why is the money going in the exact opposite direction of where we think it should?

I don't think Hughes is that much of a dog in this fight...maybe if Steve can convince me to change my bet I'll give him a poker lesson or two

I'm surprised that Hughes is such a big dog right now. But we have to consider a few things. Styles make fights. Kos is a MUCH better wrestler than Hughes.........so what is it exactly that Hughes is bringing to the table in this fight. I have been a long time supporter of Matt Hughes, but I just don't see him doing anything in this one. It's not a case of "I told you so". I hope if you guys bet on Hughes you do well.

Couple of things to consider when looking at this fight. Hughes won the first match because he caught a nervous St Pierre in an arm bar. In the second fight, St Pierre, literally demolished Hughes. Two totally different fights for sure.

A friend of mine who is excellent at handicapping these fights essentially said that he would take St Pierre at just about any price. And he also feels that Vanderlei Silva will win. He believes that come fight time, it will be about even for Chuck and Vanderlei as far as betting lines go, or close enough. I went on to explan that I saw Vanderlei and he looked horrible. In addition, Pride fighters have not done well in the UFC. This fight is much closer imo. Hence the odds.

In a lot of ways, these fights are almost like flipping a coin. I still am grateful that I found out that Machida beat Penn and Franklin. I don't care how long ago that was. That is very important info.

I only hope that come fight day I make the correct decisions. One thing is for sure, I certainly am preparing myself to the best of my ability.........and I continue to appreciate all additions to this thread.

Random thought.......Franklin vs. Silva. I was prepared to bet Franklin. For some reason I was convinced that Frank would win. A friend of mine watched the previous tape and said the guy got killed.........what has changed? If you watch the next fight, nothing really changed. Once you completely dominate someone, it is very difficult to come back from that kind of loss. Hughes was dominated. I only wish that the general public and Vegas didn't get to see it, because they are screwing up my action.

This is the point I get confused on though -



In no way is St. Pierre a better wrestler than Koscheck, but he completely dominated him in the clinch and on the ground. How did that happen? Same way that Serra outstruck St. Pierre in their fight - he's not a better striker than St. Pierre, it just happened to be his day.

I guess I can't convince myself that St. Pierre can stop Matt Hughes from taking him down. I may be way off on that one, but I have to think Hughes is going to take St. Pierre down and GnP him to death. The more I think about it though, the more I think that Steve's probably right...

----------------------------------------------

Steve - have you seen Wanderlei vs. Cro Cop and then Wanderlei vs. Henderson? I get that Wandy can't outstrike Cro Cop, but not being able to outstrike Henderson really worries me in his chances against Chuck.

Plus Chuck has shown the ability to recover after a loss. His performances against Couture after getting completely dominated the first time were super impressive to me. On the other hand, Wanderlei hasn't really had to deal with losing until his last two fights. It looks like his chin might be shot, and his confidence might be shot.

Not to get too far in the MMAth, but common opponents for Chuck and Wanderlei:

Wandy > Rampage twice
Chuck < Rampage twice

Chuck > Tito Ortiz and Vitor Belfort
Wandy < Tito Ortiz and Vitor Belfort (many moons ago)

In Wandy's favor - Rampage is a closer parallel to Chuck than Tito or Vitor are to Wandy. Beating Rampage twice in convincing fashion is impressive, and Rampage has shown no real vulnerability to Chuck in the cage.

A writer with MMAweekly seems to disagree with you here.

short GSP Training Article

"Of note, not one fighter (including Evans) was able to take down St-Pierre and it definitely wasn’t because of a lack of effort. On the other hand, it looked as though St-Pierre took everyone down almost at will with probably a 95% success ratio."

GSP pretty much dismantled Hughes in their last fight and was pretty much killing him the first time as well. Unless GSP makes a huge mistake I just don't see this going any different than GSP/Hughes II. Hughes has not shown me anything in his last 3 fights that would prove otherwise.



I get a bad feeling someone somewhere knows something we don't about the Clementi/Guillard fight.

SHOCKING that in a public workout St. Pierre looked strong

+1...this one seems fairly close to a no-brainer to me, not sure why everyone else feels the same way but in the opposite direction.

Why is Melvin Guillard back in the UFC anyway? Maybe the answer to that helps with the answer to the other question.

Edit: I stumbled on a piece of information I didn't know, which explains his absence - he was suspended by the NSAC for cocaine use back in April.........................................

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news.asp?n_id=7506

He's training with Team Punishment, which means his wrestling is probably greatly improved...I'unno.

On the other hand, looking through Clementi's record his only recent losses have been to strong fighters - Carneiro, Din Thomas, Caol Uno...any reason at all to think Clementi loses this fight?

------------------



Keep in mind that Franklin was never a top 205 pounder, and Penn is a top 155 pounder.

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On another note, I'm enjoying this thread very much. I very much enjoy being pushed on my opinions/predictions because it makes me think through them in different ways and with new interesting information.

yeah, yeah, I know. But i still agree with him 110%. It's been a while since I saw the first fight, but has Hughes ever taken GSP down?



yeah, old news. Think he is only one of two people ever to be suspended for the nose candy which is actually a bit shocking . With most of these fights being in Vegas and a lot of the fighters training there you would think it would be more prevalent.



He was a state wrestling champ in Lou-e-see-anna during high school and was on the Junior National team. Not to say he can't get any better, but he has a pretty darn good base to start from.



Exactly, these guys are all pretty well rounded, but most of all they are all BJJ/submission aces. Unless Guillard has worked on his BJJ diligently I still give the edge to Clementi on the ground, especially if he is on top. And yes, this is for the most part street fighting so anyone has a punchers chance. At +200 or around there I think it is too good to pass up.

interesting insight from someone over at 2+2:

Yea I agree with a bet like this rather than a coin flip on the winner. Chuck looked so brutal against Jardine that I would have a hard time betting him. And I havent seen enough of Silva to have an opinion on how well he would do against an opponent like Chuck especially with with the record of Pride guys in there first octagon matches. Is there any sites online out there that offer these sort of props?

Here's a Teleconference I found....After hearing this, and the tone, I like GSP WAAAY more than Hughes, but I think hughes has a shot still. Also I like what Chuck had to say, sounds like he's back to being the focused iceman he was in 06..

edit link..http://mrsunshinevegas.wordpress.com/2007/...ele-conference/

missed linkage JC?

The only reason I wouldn't like the distance bet is because once either of these guys smell blood they pounce HARD. At +330 though it is tough to go wrong.

fixed...sorry.

sickest suplex ever? How does Fedor not die?

best thing about the fight though was Rampage as the co-commentator.

Not only does Fedor not die, but he ends up submitting Rampage about 30 seconds later. Absolutely amazing.

Rampage is great on commentary - I forget which fight it was (one of Fedor's...or maybe Cro Cop) but Mauro Ranallo accidentally calls him Kevin Randleman, and Rampage goes on about how it's ok because all black people look alike and how he has to sign a bunch of autographs for Japanese fans as Gilbert Yvel.

Do people still think all black people look alike?

LOL...well played sir.

I meant to make a comment on this one.

It seriously looked like Fedor was toying with the guy and after the bestsuplexofalltime, Fedor basically said to himself "OK, I have had enough of this guy" and made the submission look as easy as apple pie. The only way he survives being dropped on his head with his ear touching his neck is to be completely and totally relaxed. People like Fedor scare me because they look like they are stoned on blueberry kush 100% of time, but are quite the opposite.

Actually, Asians and Hispanics are the new black in regards to that.

Brown is the new pink too.

Wait.....what?

tyvm



That was likely the best suplex ever, but it is definately not the best slam ever...See Rampage Powerbombing Ricardo Arona obv!

And the submission definately had the "oh hai der...I see an arm...lemme just...SNAPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!" easy as pie feel to it.

Definitely the most brutal suplex ever. The two coolest were Severn vs. Macias from...UFC 5 maybe? And then the one from the WEC.

It really was amazing how quickly and easily Fedor puts on that keylock. Takes about half a second to shake off the cobwebs from that slam, and then goes right to work. That's when the world realized he's not human

I have some new thoughts about the Lidell vs Silva fight.

I just realized that Chuck does great against guys who come out fast and furious, because Chuck is a counter striker. All of the guys from Chute Box, Silva especially have been known to do that. Now the x factor is Silva training with Couture. If Silva plays more of a waiting game, and fights a different style, this could be a tougher fight. But, if we see the old Vanderlei, I still like Chuck to win.

Does anyone have a link to the fights with Silva vs Cro Cop, and Silva vs Henderson. I actually haven't seen those, and would like to. Thanks.