Spider's Late Night MMA Picks:
Matt Hughes vs George St-Pierre - This fight's too close to call, so I like the bet on Hughes as a heavy favorite. St. Pierre killed Hughes dead in their last fight, but he was having the fight of his life and Hughes was having the worst fight of his life.
Last Fights: St. Pierre looked great against Josh Koscheck, but I don't think he would win a rematch. Koscheck was absolutely shocked that someone would try to take him down, and probably hasn't spent more than ten minutes training on his takedown defense in a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng time. Hughes beat a very much underrated Chris Lytle in his last fight in a three round decision.
Intangibles: These favor Hughes HEAVILY. He wants this fight BAD for a couple reasons. First, he talked about on The Ultimate Fighter how he only plans on a few more fights. He has to be hungry for a championship to boost his paycheck and finish off his legacy in a positive way. Second, he really wants to kill Matt Serra dead. St. Pierre was at the top of the world, unbeatable, and then lost a huge upset to Matt Serra. Mentally I think he has to be a bit shocked - think Chuck Liddell after his loss to Rampage, Wanderlei after his loss to Cro Cop.
Again, real tough fight to pick, I have Hughes as a slight favorite, so him being the betting line underdog is a real solid bet.
Chuck Liddell vs Wanderlei Silva - Right now BetUS has Liddell at even money, Silva at -130. I think the smart money is on Liddell for a couple big reasons.
Top of that list - PRIDE guys have looked like absolute shit in the UFC. The lack of drug testing in Japan certainly helped the PRIDE fighters look a lot stronger, and PRIDE was booked very much like a pro wrestling organization. PRIDE did a great job of protecting their stars, giving them favorable matchups, and generally getting the outcomes they wanted without having to work fights.
Also, Silva has looked like absolute shit since Cro Cop killed him dead. He also hasn't fought in almost a year, has some fairly severe ring rust, and wasn't that good in his last two fights. He's also lost three of his last five...with one of the wins by split decision.
Liddell on the other hand is hungry, and realizes that if he loses this fight his career is over. Liddell should be a huge favorite in this one - I'd bet on him.
Lyoto Machida vs Rameau Sokoudjou - Sokoudjou and it's not even close. Right now he's even money, and I would be the farm on him.
Machida is generally not a dangerous fighter at all, with 7 of his 11 wins being by decision. On the other hand, Sokoudjou is one of the scariest ****ers not named Anderson Silva on the planet right now. He brutally knocked out Ricardo Arona (something Wanderlei couldn't do in two tries), and lil Nog (something Rua couldn't do) in scary fashion. He trains with Team Quest, and is a nationally ranked judoka.
Also - Sokoudjou's being groomed as the new star of the 205 decision. He's a scary, scary man, and Dana White wants him to take over as the champion for Rampage in a year or two. On the other hand he's shown no real interest in Machida, putting him up against 205 nobodies like Sam Hoger, David Heath, and Kazuhiro Nakamura.
Check out his fight videos at
http://www.sokoudjou.com/I see no reason to think Machida would want to do anything but stand with Sokoudjou, and he will get killed dead if he tries. This should be your biggest money play of the night.
Rich Clementi vs Melvin Guillard - Melvin Guillard stinks, Rich Clementi's not much better. I'd bet on Clementi only because Guillard really stinks...Clementi won his last fight, Guillard got tapped in 27 seconds in his last one. If you have to bet, pick Clementi...I personally would use this as a chance to go to the restroom.
Sao Palelei vs Eddie Sanchez - I don't know anything about Sao Palelei, but he won his last fight in a five second knockout. On the other hand, Dana White probably had to offer his first born to Eddie Sanchez to get him to step in to the ring and get his head kicked off by Cro Cop (or GnPed to death...but still). Sherdog says Palelei has 35 pounds on Sanchez, but I remember him looking small next to Cro Cop (who's not a big guy himself). Again...not super confident in this one, I'd probably bet Palelei because the ignorant money will go on Sanchez because people saw him win his last UFC fight. Not sure who the favorite is, but the +EV move seems to be Palelei.
Luis Cane vs James Irvin - Irvin has the UFC experience, I've never heard of Luis Cane but he's been very successful in the smaller shows. Irvin probably wins, but not often enough to justify the betting lines that will undoubtedly heavily favor him. I probably put my money on Cane here.
Nate Mohr vs Manny Gamburyan - Manny Gamburyan is a badass submission fighter, Nate Mohr has four losses, all by submission. Manny trains with Gokor and his cousin Karo Pariysian, Nate Mohr trains with Jeff Curran (the dude who just got pwned by Urijah Faber on the WEC show). This is actually the undercard/dark match I'm most confident in. Bet on Manny.
Jordan Radev vs Dean Lister - two ground fighters, Radev's on the Bulgarian Olympic Team, Dean Lister's an ADCC champ. Radev seems to be getting a push, while Lister's a career journeyman. Radev has won five of his fights by decision and has never been submitted. Dean Lister couldn't submit Nate Marquardt, Ricardo Arona, or some guy named Yuki Sasaki.
This is a test fight for Radev, Lister's just an opponent. Bet on Radev, especially as an underdog.
Roan Carneiro vs Tony Desouza - neither one of these guys is very impressive, and this won't be shown on television for a reason. Bet on Carneiro just because the UFC seems to think he's a better fighter and DeSouza has a stupid beard.
Mark Bocek vs Doug Evans - Doug Evans appears to be the king of the Alaskan Fighting Championship, with his only UFC appearance being what I think is the SI Cover getting killed dead by Roger Huerta. UFC's giving him another chance to show he belongs.
On the other hand Mark Bocek has some good experience in the KOTC, and lost to a reasonably impressive Frank Edgar. I'd probably bet on Bocek here...he's got more big show experience, and his record lists him as a badass submission guy.
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The key to betting UFC fights is asking yourself "What does Dana White want here?" He's fairly good at making matchups that get him the outcome he wants, but still produce competitive fights. Look at the Chuck Liddell/Randy Couture trilogy for a great example.
Liddell loses, needs a redemption fight, so who does Dana White book him against? Good ol' Vernon "Tiger" White - one of the few men in professional fighting dumb enough to try to stand up and trade punches with Chuck Liddell in 2004. Chuck not surprisingly knocks him out, the peasants rejoice, we get Couture/Liddell II.
Couture loses the rematch, and now needs a redemption fight so they need to find someone who will grapple with him and not be smart enough to try to outbox Randy. So they feed him journeyman grappler Mike van Arsdale. He wins in a great grappling war, Randy goes on to lose the third match in the trilogy. Dana White makes a shitload of money on all these shows, and life is good.
When in doubt, bet on the outcome that makes more money for Dana White in the future. He can't work the fights, but he can certainly try to set them up in a way that favors the outcome he wants.