I don't think anyone is really arguing that Machida isn't a good striker. We are simply saying he's not exceptional. While he is elusive, he doesn't have good head movement and is sometimes flat footed. Also at times he keeps his hands a little low. The reason I like Sokoudjou's striking over Machida's is that he does have good head movement, his stance is wide meaning he can throw fast and powerful leg kicks and he's light on his feet. He also has nice power, the nog brothers have solid chins but he still flash KOed one of them. And his kicks are just f*cking sexy.

The thing is, I don't really like Ortiz and I am not a fan of his. I am a fan of Machida's, but when I try to analyze this match I just think that Tito takes it by UD. Stylistically he is just a bad match up for Machida.

Everything hinges on whether Tito can get the take down.

Here's why I think he can:

Tito has already fought a similar fighter to Machida: Wanderlei.

Here is what makes Wandy similar to Machida: He is a good striker and a black belt in BJJ.
Here is what makes them different: Wandy is a more powerful striker, Machida is a more technical striker. Machida's jits is better.

Wandy's main shortcoming is his wrestling. The people who give him problems are better strikers and strong wrestlers. Tito has beaten him, Arona has beaten him, Liddell, Hendo and Mirko. Basically, wrestler, wrestler, better striker with wrestling, striker with wrestling and better striker.

Tito's problems come from: strikers with good wrestling/TD defense and stronger wrestlers. This is why he has losses to Couture and Liddell.

Now let's look at Machida's past fights:

There is nobody on his resume that is similar to Ortiz. BUT, we have seen that he can be taken down. BJ Penn took him down and kept him there a decent amount, but Machida did get back up. We have seen Sokoudjou take him down, although he did get swept.

Here is something about Penn that is similar to Tito: he has good take downs.
Here is something about Tito that is different to Penn: he's 50lbs heavier.

Can Tito take him down? I think so.
Can Machida sweep Tito? I don't think so.
Can Machida get back up? I don't think so.

I want Machida to take it, but you have stated Tito is not the best match for Machida stylistically. So basically it boils down to this, if Tito is +170 and we lay $100 on Tito. Tito only has to win 37% of the time for it to be a good bet. Do I think Tito can win more than 37% of the time? Yeah I do.

PM sent sir.

Adam must have heard me talking about the Machida fight.

I rarely get excited about how people match up, but I LOVE Machida vs Ortiz.

I have never been more confident in a pick.

Machida wins this fight AINIC.

Tito is washed up and Machida is an ANIMAL. His style isn't flashy, but he's disgustingly effective and as Jay alluded to...never takes any damage. Tito's only prayer is to ground and pound him, but as we have seen with the evolution of MMA...being a 1 trick pony gets u only so far. Tito is a 1 trick pony IMO and I don't see his trick working here.

PM sent.

I really hope BJ wins as I have been a huge fan of his for as long as I have followed MMA, but Sherk at +185 could be the best underdog bet in a very very long time. If it gets out of the first I feel like BJ doesn't have a shot. The only one even close to Sherk's intensity that BJ has fought is GSP and he wore BJ down pretty quickly. I think Sherk is actually more intense than GSP. Sherk has unlimited cardio and it has nothing to do with his possible juicing (I am not convinced he juiced). He's fought 65 minutes in his last 3 fights, but unfortunately he only has two fights in the last two years.

BJ is going to crush Sherk. BJ's gone 5 rounds before and he's going to be in shape to make 155. I highly doubt cardio will be an issue. He wasn't in great condition for his fight with GSP and still arguably won the fight. If you look at who did the damage, it was BJ. GSP just managed to get takedowns, but did nothing with it. BJ's already beaten a better version of Sherk in Matt Hughes. He stuffed most of Hughes' takedowns and was dominating the fight until the rib injury. BJ is going to pick Sherk apart standing and make him pay for his TD attempts. Even if Sherk gets BJ down, BJ's just going to get right back up or sweep him. There's no chance Sherk will be able to control BJ like he did with Franca and Florian. Sherk is just too one dimensional to beat BJ and when he's stepped up to fight elite competition in Hughes and GSP, he's been beaten soundly, especially against GSP where he took a beating. I think he takes another one from BJ.

I'd pick BJ probably up to anything around -300.

I don't know if you guys have seen this or if its been posted....but Urijah Faber tells an absolutely story about how he beat the shit out of 12 guys trying to kill him in Bali. It starts at about the 1:55 mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOQLg7Kc8So

BJ is going to crush Sherk. BJ's gone 5 rounds before and he's going to be in shape to make 155. I highly doubt cardio will be an issue. He wasn't in great condition for his fight with GSP and still arguably won the fight. If you look at who did the damage, it was BJ. GSP just managed to get takedowns, but did nothing with it. BJ's already beaten a better version of Sherk in Matt Hughes. He stuffed most of Hughes' takedowns and was dominating the fight until the rib injury. BJ is going to pick Sherk apart standing and make him pay for his TD attempts. Even if Sherk gets BJ down, BJ's just going to get right back up or sweep him. There's no chance Sherk will be able to control BJ like he did with Franca and Florian. Sherk is just too one dimensional to beat BJ and when he's stepped up to fight elite competition in Hughes and GSP, he's been beaten soundly, especially against GSP where he took a beating. I think he takes another one from BJ.

I'd pick BJ probably up to anything around -300.

Oh no you didn't.

I'm sorry, but it's amazing what blood will do to cloud people's mind. BJ clearly won Rd. 1, please explain how he won rounds 2 and 3. There's no way he won that fight, and if that punch (which seriously barely connected) didn't connect, it's not even close.

Jay makes some good points as always. But you need to look at BJs record having gone 5 rounds. He lost to Pulver and Hughes. I think that GSP clearly won the fight vs Penn as well. It was close, but imo GSP won.

Comparing Hughes to Sherk is fair. But lets look at Penn's record against Hughes.......

I think BJ will win. But -300 is waaaay off.

Sherk certainly has a very good chance of winning this fight.

Judging is all subjective and it depends on what you want to reward more. The fighter landing the more effective strikes or the fighter that gets a couple takedowns. To me, it's a fight and it's all about the damage that you inflict on your opponent. Getting takedowns where you do nothing with it shouldn't count for points imo. If it were Pride judging, BJ would have won the fight for sure. Fact of the matter is it was a close fight and some people believe BJ won the fight.

Personally I gave BJ the 1st and 3rd Rounds. He landed the better shots in the 3rd round and he had a near gogoplata atempt at the end of the round.

The Pulver fight was so long ago when BJ was inexperienced and it was still a close fight. I use that as an example that he has gone 5 rounds before, so his cardio has been good enough in the past.

And you certainly can't compare going 5 rounds with Pulver to going 5 with Sherk. It is night and day.

When Sherk lost to Hughes and GSP he was outweighed at fight time by a minimum of 20 lbs. BJ will not hold near that advantage at LW.

It's going to be interesting if BJ beats Sherk in that I can't see BJ getting motivated to fight either Huerta or Florian.

I thinkn BJ wants GSP if he wins this...

IF BJ is ready, physically.

Seems to be quite a big if. Also, if BJ is in top shape not many people in the world have a shot against him.

wait, are we talking about the Sherk who couldn't finish Franca or Florian (even back before Florian had improved as much as he has)
and hasn't fought for ever

Sherk has no chance vs BJ IF BJ is ready, physically.

I will also repeat...I hope I am wrong about this one, but I think Sherk is the worst possible matchup for BJ at 155.

Agreed that if it was Pride, BJ would have won. But with the 10 point system, BJ just didn't win those last 2 rounds. If you are going to reward submission attempts (failed submissions), how can you not give credit for takedowns? Obviously this fight has been debated to death on Sherdog, but the fact of the matter is, based on the current (somewhat flawed) scoring system, BJ lost.

And you certainly can't compare going 5 rounds with Pulver to going 5 with Sherk. It is night and day.

When Sherk lost to Hughes and GSP he was outweighed at fight time by a minimum of 20 lbs. BJ will not hold near that advantage at LW.

It's going to be interesting if BJ beats Sherk in that I can't see BJ getting motivated to fight either Huerta or Florian.

The submission attempt cancels out the takedowns is what I meant. BJ landed the better strikes in the 3rd round as I said. BJ also got back to his feet after being taken down. If you're going to give someone points for takedowns, you should give somebody points for getting back up from a takedown. Of course I can see why they gave the fight to GSP based on the takedowns, I just feel differently.

I'm not saying Sherk is going to finish BJ at all. Actually, I would be shocked if Sherk finished BJ. I think Sherk easily has the mojo to go 5 rounds of all out wrestling and grind out the decision.

And I'll repeat...when have we ever seen BJ physically ready to go 5 rounds with a wrestling firecracker like Sherk? Sure, BJ will probably stuff Sherk's takedowns for at least a round, maybe even two. The constant pressure will eventually grind BJ down and he'll have to rely on pure instinct to survive as he will have no gas left.

I will also repeat...I hope I am wrong about this one, but I think Sherk is the worst possible matchup for BJ at 155. If he runs through Sherk I see no reason for him to fight anyone else at 155. Huerta hasn't exactly beaten top tier competition and BJ is just plain superior to Florian in every facet of MMA. If BJ would lose to either one of those it would be a fluke or a lack of motivation.

That really is the problem with the systems. They reward the takedown, they don't reward the sprawl. Look at Tito/Griffin. Even that fight was somewhat controversial (I had Tito by a lot after the first), but that 3rd round, Forrest won people over because Tito couln't do anything. Does he get rewarded? No, because there is nothing in the system that says he should.

Many people feel Forrest won against Tito as well. Whatever the case, the fight was close enough where there should be a rematch between GSP and BJ at some point.

Constant pressure? Have you guys watched a Sean Sherk fight before? The guy takes you down and lays on top of you and hardly does any damage. Someone laying on top of you for 25 minutes dry humping you isn't going to make you gas. I don't see how that's going to wear BJ down at all. If Sherk opens up and tries to do damage, BJ will either sweep him or catch him in a submission.

I also don't think Sherk is going to be the one applying the pressure. I see BJ probably going for the takedown when it's there and beating on Sherk. It's amazing how everybody has the same strategy of trying to get BJ into the deep rounds to get him tired. I just don't see it working anymore with BJ's new and rededicated focus.

BJ is going into this fight knowing that he will need his conditioning for this fight because of the way Sherk fights. He's not going to come into a fight like this unprepared for Sherk's gameplan.

The guy takes you down and lays on top of you and hardly does any damage.

I don't understand. Your statements clearly contradict themselves. If it's not going to make him gas then why train extra hard on conditioning? To go the extra two rounds? There is no way BJ wins this in rounds 4 or 5. NO WAY.

And yes, Sherk was extremely small at 170. If he wasn't, then you would see GSP and Hughes coming down to 155 and there is no way they could come even close. Both times Sherk has fought at 155 in the UFC I was shocked at how he looked compared to Franca and Florian. Even when he stood in the ring with BJ he looked tiny.
And that's exactly what I am afraid of. If anyone can get up from the bottom it is BJ though.

So here is my question.

How does BJ finish this fight?

I don't see Sherk finishing it. I do see the possibility of Sherk getting enough takedowns and keeping a pace that will gas BJ.

Is BJ going to knock Sherk out? Is he going to submit him? How exactly does BJ win?

I think BJ is very capable of pounding out a TKO. It's hard to choke a guy with no neck. It's hard to armbar, keylock, kimura, etc a guy with t-rex arms. I think Sherk is too strong to do any omaplata or gogoplata type submissions. Possible triangle.

I'd say out of the ways he would finish it there is a 90% chance it would be TKO.

Btw, does anyone have a link to the Sherk vs GSP fight or Sherk vs Hughes. I haven't seen those fights for awhile and would like to watch again.

The Sherk Collection

edit: just noticed the Hughes link on there is no longer good

Earlier when Sherk and Florian fought, I thought that Florian might be able to secure a submission. JayBoogie explained to me at the time that Sherks body type is very hard to submit.

Now that I have seen Sherk fight quite a few times, I have to wonder what position exactly it is going to be that BJ will get the tko from? As I said, if BJ does get top position the fight is over. So I suppose thats one way. But I cant see Sherk standing around wanting to trade blows with BJ.

Sherk remind of Lidell in the sense that there is no mystery as to what he is going to do, similar to someone like Brock Lesnar. However Lidell and Lesnar obv use different methods.

Sherk has a good base, and BJ has a very active guard.

I think that BJ is one of the most talented fighters ever. But I think that Sherk is one of the toughest fighters ever. That is why this is a much more difficult fight to handicap imo.

Btw, does anyone have a link to the Sherk vs GSP fight or Sherk vs Hughes. I haven't seen those fights for awhile and would like to watch again.

Does anyone have the current lines on UFC 84 for all fights?

Drury,

Those lines you posted are pretty far off. Here are the current lines for 84:

901 Keith Jardine +150
902 Wanderlei Silva -160

903 Tito Ortiz +181
904 Lyoto Machida -201

905 Sean Sherk +191
906 BJ Penn -211