AimHigher
Thursday, May 1st, 2008, 3:42 AM
QUOTE (jayboogie @ Thursday, May 1st, 2008, 2:45 AM)

Lyoto isn't a good striker? Are you guys serious? He's got some sick stand-up. Just because he isn't knocking people out left and right doesn't mean his stand-up isn't wicked. It's pin point and accurate and he also avoids any damage at all. His style of fighting is to keep the fight on the feet and to hit you while avoid getting hit. If you don't call somebody like that a striker, I'm not sure what you call him then.
Soko is an awesome judoka player, just because he knocked out Arona and Little Nog doesn't mean he's some amazing striker. He has power in his striking, but it's not particularly sharp or anything like that and he got outclassed by Machida when standing. Soko is solid on the ground, judoka's have submissions. People just underestimate how good Machida's ground game is. He's a black belt for a reason.
I expect Machida to win, but stylistically Tito is not that good a match-up for him, because of Tito's wrestling. Tito could conceivably take Machida down, lay in his guard and do just enough to not get stood back up. He handled Soko's takedown's pretty well though, so we'll have to see what happens. Machida is still dangerous off his back though and Machida would pick Tito apart standing.
I don't think anyone is really arguing that Machida isn't a good striker. We are simply saying he's not exceptional. While he is elusive, he doesn't have good head movement and is sometimes flat footed. Also at times he keeps his hands a little low. The reason I like Sokoudjou's striking over Machida's is that he does have good head movement, his stance is wide meaning he can throw fast and powerful leg kicks and he's light on his feet. He also has nice power, the nog brothers have solid chins but he still flash KOed one of them. And his kicks are just f*cking sexy.
The thing is, I don't really like Ortiz and I am not a fan of his. I am a fan of Machida's, but when I try to analyze this match I just think that Tito takes it by UD. Stylistically he is just a bad match up for Machida.
Everything hinges on whether Tito can get the take down.
Here's why I think he can:
Tito has already fought a similar fighter to Machida: Wanderlei.
Here is what makes Wandy similar to Machida: He is a good striker and a black belt in BJJ.
Here is what makes them different: Wandy is a more powerful striker, Machida is a more technical striker. Machida's jits is better.
Wandy's main shortcoming is his wrestling. The people who give him problems are better strikers and strong wrestlers. Tito has beaten him, Arona has beaten him, Liddell, Hendo and Mirko. Basically, wrestler, wrestler, better striker with wrestling, striker with wrestling and better striker.
Tito's problems come from: strikers with good wrestling/TD defense and stronger wrestlers. This is why he has losses to Couture and Liddell.
Now let's look at Machida's past fights:
There is nobody on his resume that is similar to Ortiz. BUT, we have seen that he can be taken down. BJ Penn took him down and kept him there a decent amount, but Machida did get back up. We have seen Sokoudjou take him down, although he did get swept.
Here is something about Penn that is similar to Tito: he has good take downs.
Here is something about Tito that is different to Penn: he's 50lbs heavier.
Can Tito take him down? I think so.
Can Machida sweep Tito? I don't think so.
Can Machida get back up? I don't think so.
I want Machida to take it, but you have stated Tito is not the best match for Machida stylistically. So basically it boils down to this, if Tito is +170 and we lay $100 on Tito. Tito only has to win 37% of the time for it to be a good bet. Do I think Tito can win more than 37% of the time? Yeah I do.