Rua hurt his knee and dropped out.

The reason that there isn't a ton of money to be made in smaller shows right now, is because there aren't a lot of venues to bet them. If Vegas opened there doors to all MMA matches, there would value.

The amount that you can bet on the UFC is pretty limited........vastly limited compared to any other sport. AINEC.

Tito is fighting Machida

When?

Lines are up on 5 Dimes for 84:

UFC 84 - Lightweight Championship 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 5/24 501 BJ Penn -190
10:00PM (EST) 502 Sean Sherk +150
UFC 84 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 5/24 503 Wanderlei Silva -165
10:00PM (EST) 504 Keith Jardine +125
UFC 84 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 5/24 505 Tito Ortiz +160
10:00PM (EST) 506 Lyoto Machida -210

I kinda like Sherk at +150 (will probably be the only guy that does), I don't think this line will move too much either way but I could see BJ moving up to -200 or -210.

Wandy opened at -150 which I like, but its already at -165. I still think there is value at -165. I bet this line gets closer to -200 by fight night.

Machida -210....I absolutely love this and will probably blow my nuts on this bet. I'm kind of up in the air about how this line will move though. Black House ftw obv.

Sigh....I was way off.

Although I actually think that the Sherk line will move A LOT, I bet towards the day of the fight the money starts going on sherk....I don't know who I like with those lines, It's fairly accurate imo. I'd probably still bet BJ, but I want to wait and see if I can get him better than -150 or so.

I like Machida @ -210, I also think this line moves and we might get Machida at a better price.

and I like Wandy at -165....so far though I think the lines are pretty booboo. but I think they will def. get way better as some of these dudes are super famous.

I hope the BJ line moves down but I might take him at -190. Wandy looked like an ol man against Chuck and Jardine still getting no respect for beating Forrest and Chuck, I think I bet Jardine here. I cant remember the last good fight Tito had so I take Mchida but hope the line moves a little because of name recognition. MMA lines are gonna be hard to beat long term if they keep charging 15% juice.

The juice is kinda sick. But it's been there for awhile.

I'm going to put a lot of thought into these fights. One of things that JC and I have done well in the past, well two things actually. We have never bet TOO heavy on one fight in particular. And we have made money off of undercards. The key is to take advantage of the number of fights that they have showing. The general public usually wants to bet on the headline fight. So a lot of errors are made in the smaller fights. The lines in the fights where they don't expect people to bet are usually way off.

From time to time I will make a decision based on pure feel. Even though I might not be getting a great price on a fight, I will still bet it. I do this because I simply can't see the person that I am betting on losing. I did this with Marquardt vs Horn. The line was horrible. And I actually came close to losing that fight. But I honestly didn't believe that Jeremy Horn could or would win the fight regardless of what the odds were.

Penn vs Sherk is a tough fight to call imo. There is a ton of value in betting Sherk right now. I am not saying I am going to do that. But I don't see Sherk being submitted. And I could be wrong, but BJ has never won three consecutive fights. Now don't get me wrong, BJ is an amazing fighter. But the lines are way off on this one. I just need to decide who I think is going to win REGARDLESS of what the lines are.

I think BJ takes the fight easy. -190 is about right in terms of what it should be, maybe BJ should be a bigger favourite. I think -190 is a pretty good bet still. Stylistically, Sherk has nothing for BJ. I think Sherk will have a ton of trouble getting BJ down and will eat a ton of punches in trying to do so. BJ is in his prime right now and I think it's foolish betting against him period. The only possible scenario of Sherk winning this fight is by decision and I don't see that happening. BJ is focused and gets in excellent shape fighting at 155. He's also better than Sherk at everything. He's way better on the ground and is better in the stand-up as well. Wherever the fight goes, Sherk is in trouble. I think BJ is gonna crush him and don't think it's gonna be very competitive at all.

BJ has won 3 fights in a row on 2 occasions. His record is not a good indicator of how good he is. His losses have all been extremely close or he's had some bad luck in his fights. BJ and Sherk are just on different levels. BJ is one of the best P4P fighters in the world and Sherk is a step below.

I do agree that BJ is better in ALMOST every aspect. Except cardio and wrestling. Having said that, I still haven't decided about the fight yet.

I'm going to start making totally random and outragous posts, just to see if Jay comes in and goes for the exact opposite.

Right now I see Matt Serra as a HUGE favorite to win against GSP....

Okay Jay, have fun.

I think wrestling is pretty even and don't think cardio will be an issue. I wouldn't be surprised to see BJ take Sherk down and pound on him before getting the submission. It would probably be the ideal gameplan considering Sherk is probably not that good on the bottom. I'm just not big on Sherk because he never finishes anyone or even does much damage in his fights. When you don't have finishing ability, you pretty much have to fight perfect fights and he certainly won't be able to do that against BJ.

lol I think Serra has a pretty good chance against GSP. I expect GSP to win, but it's no cakewalk for him. Serra has better BJJ than GSP and has power in his hands as we have seen from the first fight.

Agree..

BJ is too sick, sherk is a strong dude with tons of heart, but we're forgetting how he almost got knocked out cold by Hermes Franca TWICE and it was only franca's fault for not being able to finish. BJ has a strong chin, he has very heavy hands, Randy himself said that HE had trouble getting BJ down and keeping him there when he was a heavyweight and BJ was 155 so he's also strong as hell, he's hungry right now, and we all know he's the best at BJJ. Sherk on the other hand is coming off a suspension, off teh roids, hasn't fought anyone with the abilities of BJ in a while, his last 3 wins were unanimous decisions and he got ko'd by GSP, his wins before that were all submissions. I think we can all agree that he has almost no shot of submitting BJ, he also has almost no shot at a KO unless the ref stops a vicious ground and pound (which I don't see happening). Steve likes to figure out how someone can win before he bets, and in this case I can't see how sherk wins and I can see plenty of ways that BJ wins. Sherk can pull out decisions but that will be very tough considering he won't be able to pull off a decision standing and in order to do so he has to take BJ to the ground and keep him there for 3 out of 5 rounds in which case he's in clear danger of getting caught by bj. I think Sherk's best shot is getting BJ into the 4th round and hoping he gasses and/or is hurt and getting a lucky win like Hughes did last time.

BJ is a badass in RNC submissions (as seen on my avatar), but I don't see him doing this on sherk, I think he either knocks him out or gets him in a triangle or something weird like an oma plata from his back. If he gets top position I can see him mounting Sherk. He's just too good and has too many ways to win........Man after, I think about it I wouldn't even bet Sherk at +200. Maybe I just like Penn too much in general, but I really think his only competition atm is GSP, and even then I think he would have a very hard time with BJ.

We're on the same page as far as BJ Penn is concerned. If BJ gets on top, I think the fight's a wrap. Nobody wants BJ on top of them, which is why they always try to take him down. Sherk does no damage in his fights. He's very good at getting dominant positions and holding his opponents there, but very bad at capitalizing. He mounted Hermes like 20 times and did no damage. There's pretty much zero chance he can pass BJ's guard, so Sherk is just going to try and hold BJ down and do just enough on the ground to avoid being stood up. I know MMA math is usually a non factor, but in this case, it does tell you a lot. Sherk is basically a smaller version of Matt Hughes stylistically, but less dangerous. BJ basically tooled Matt in both their fights aside from the rib injury. If Hughes struggled to get Penn down, Sherk will have an even more difficult time.

lol I know this has nothing to do with the thread....but I was bored at home, having some beers and saw there was a heavy weight title fight with Maskaev vs Peter's. I pretty much had a free 1k in my bodog acct and since I'm a degen I obv took the most -EV bets they had not knowing anything about either fighters outside of their record and where they were from. So I took Maskaev for a KO getting 7 to 1 and the Over at 7 1/2 rounds at -120 figuring boxing always goes to decision. Of course the ref decides to stop the fight with 6 seconds left in the 6th. If my dude just falls on purpose and gets up he gets 1 minute rest and I at least probably win the over. Anyway I guess my point is, boxing is ****ing terrible, the fight was boring as hell, and a super slow....and I make bad bets. IMO

loool I did the exact same thing. Saw there was a fight on HBO and blindly bet it. I had the under at 7 1/2 rounds for no real reason other than it allowed me to root for a KO.

I actually thought the fight was semi-entertaining for a recent heavyweight boxing match. They were basically just throwing bombs at each other without much regard for technical skill. As for the stoppage, Maskaev was getting fking pummeled and after that final right hand I think the ref was pretty much forced to stop it. The dude literally had his hands down with his mouth wide open standing against the ropes not knowing wtf was going on. I think he was too fked up to think that he should drop and be saved by the bell. Although I prob would have been bitter if I bet the other way just because there were like 5 seconds left.....

If you were listening to the commentary it was kind of interesting. They were talking about how Maskaev has a lawsuit against some boxing governing body. Max Kellerman flat out said no matter what happened in the fight there was no shot they would let Maskaev win by decision based on the lawsuit. (wish I knew this before the fight) So pretty much it was rigged and they all knew it/admitted it and kinda just laughed it off.


Back to mma...

It amazes me that Samuel Peter looks worst now than he did the first time he fought Klitschko. He's a puncher though, so he'll always have a chance. Maskaev's been KO'd 5 times before and I definitely expected Peter to do the same. The stoppage was on point, Maskaev was out on his feet. Even if he survived the round, I think he would have been finished pretty quickly into the next round.

The fight before that between Juan Diaz and Nate Campbell was a pretty good scrap. Diaz showed a ton of heart fighting with a completely shut eye and I'm sure he will be back. Juan's always been one of my favourite fighters because he's one of the few boxers I actually enjoy watching. It's also pretty amazing that the guy fights at a world championship level, while attending school full-time, pretty much unheard of.

yea that shit was ridiic...I mean, even the ref coulda been rigged, he warned for back of the head punches like 6 times. I bet 50 on a draw, lol when I found this out it was GG that bet. I actually liked the over the way the fight was going, but yea anything coulda happened the way they were fighting. I know the stop was legit, but the dude should have gone to the floor and gotten a standing 8, by which time the bell rings and he gets a minute to regain his feet etc...meh...


Back to MMA:

the WEC was a jooooooooooooooooooke tonight,.....did I just watch Ken Shamrock take a dive? Because I think I did. That was the biggest jopke main event fight I've ever seen. Aside from the fights sucking, Imanari was very impressive, his rubber guard is sick and his BJJ in general was really good.

Almost never see fighters take a knee in a Boxing match anymore. The ones that do usually aren't that badly hurt like Maskaev was, he was out on his feet and probably didn't know where he was.

Shamrock needs to just retire. He's been knocked out 5 fights in a row, he's 44 and just lost to a nobody. I highly doubt it was a fix, because if it was, Shamrock would have won the fight. It was pretty suspect and does make a bit of sense when you consider Gary Shaw was promoting it and the other fighter was a 7:1 dog, so anything is possible.

So apparently BJ Penn wins this fight eh?

I've been watching fights/surfing youtube all night cuz I had nothing to do, here's some of the stuff I've been watching:

For the Penn vs Sherk Debate all I think you need to do is watch Penn fight, Sherk's previous fights don't factor too much into the equation imo because he hasn't beat anyone as good as BJ before:

BJ vs GSP I re-watched 3 BJ fights tonight just because he's so sick, this is one of them I think he did way more damage in this fight and GSP just outscored him.

BJ vs Hughes 1 Turn off the music, get a peek at how he handles one of the best MMA wrestlers in his prime, and lol @ kissing hughes in the mouth.

penn vs hughes 2 I saw this on DVD but found this video, good quality (didn't work for me on firefox, only on explorer fyi)



Random shit:

one of the coolest finishes ever imo

LOL @ Anderson Silva

awesome bruce lee interview I had only seen a few clips of this in his documentary, been a fan since I was 4.

best fight ever? lool I bet the dog here, looking to get ringside tix for the rematch.

what I was talking about shamrock taking a dive I don't know if it show's the replay here Jay, but I saw it about 10 times on TV he barely lands a weak jab and the right cross that he falls down on looked about 3 inches from his face, and just hit shamrock's hand.....I think it was obv fix for the brit fighting in England to beat a big name. Now they're talking about having him fight kimbo, obv.

lol


yea whatev, I live in vegas and I'm home watching MMA videos all night...no life.

I disagree, I can definitely see sherk being submitted. Sherk's strengths against most submission fighters is actually a weakness against BJ. In the past Sherk's short arms have helped him against guys who predominetly use arm bars or utilize arms to accomplish sweeps and transitions. With BJ, someone's arm is just a quick transition in of itself and BJ is excellent with the oma plata which is usually used to transition into a toe hold or heel hook.

Sherk's build also helps BJ in utilizing his rubber guard and to get Sherk into dangerous triangle positions that is impossible to train for unless Sherk has Eddie Bravo, Paolo Ribero, or Roberto Travern in his camp. Basically, BJ has a level of BJJ that is near impossible to train for unless you train with one of the top practicioners out there.

Sherk's pure reliance on cardio and wrestling will present problems against BJ and if Sherk tries to keep it standing, he will go up against much superior boxing skills

remember, Joe Stevenson is a tremendous wrestler himself and walks around at a higher weight then Sherk does, and BJ handled Stevenson with ease. BJ has also been able to more then hold his own against Matt Hughes before gassing(in a fight he took on very short notice)

I think the biggest question for serra right now is his back. From the sounds of things, this could be a degenerative condition and he is on borrowed time and his back will certainly effect his flexibility which will certainly come into play

Well from a financial perspective for the promoters, it makes no sense. Berry is a no name and old. Shamrock versus Kimbo makes way more money than Berry versus Kimbo. The KO did look very suspect, but Shamrock sucks so bad these days that I'm not really sure. The jab looked like it hurt him more than the right hand, which may have just grazed him.

BJ is nuts lol, his last fight against Joe Daddy, he was lickin the blood off his gloves.

Anderson is the man.

I guess we're going to see whether it bothers him or not. Hard to really say how much it affects him until fight night.

It sounds like Sherk has no chance at all.

Anyone want to offer me +430 on the fight?

Well what I think is that maybe Shamrock took the fight for money purposes and then just said fck it I'm not getting hurt and pretty much just looked for a reasonable moment to fake a KO. I agree that Ken v Kimbo would make more money so it doesnt make too much sense to have berry win, but it does make sense that they'd want him to win at home or w/e.

as for BJ, yea he's pretty much one of my top 4 fav fighters....I dunno which one of these to make my new sig:

notice the choke is making stephenson's blood squirt onto BJ's elbow...

lol




didn't this injury already happen to a big fighter? I think I recall him saying that once it heals it is not a problem at all... I want to say keith jardine but I doubt that's what it is.



Do you honestly think Sherk has that good of a shot? Outside of BJ fcking it up on his own like he did with Hughes and GSP I dunno that he could lose this fight technically, at all..he's just that good imo. I think sherk has as good a shot at winning this fight as Hughes had in both his fights, and that's only if BJ comes in out of shape.


Random- I bought Chuck's book "My fighting Life" and so far it's very poorly written and all over the place, lol imagine having to interpret Chuck and write a book for him...

lol nice try steve. as long as one is a solid professional fighter, one always has a chance





if it's a degenerative condition, Serra is looking at major surgery down the road and it's something he has to live with everyday and can present serious problems for him. If it was just a normal injury, then hopefully he'll be fine and come in as close to 100% as someone that's training for a fight can

It doesn't make much sense for Shamrock to take the fight just for money though, because he should be pretty well off. He made a lot of money when he was wrestling, so I think he's pretty secure financially.

Supposedly, it's been a problem for Serra in the past and it's just been made worst now. There's conflicting reports out there of course, some say he won't be ready in time against GSP, but of course Serra himself says he's fine.

You should read Matt Hughes' book. Something isn't right with that dude.

I've read some bits and pieces posted online, I wouldn't be able to get past the first page before life tilting.....I read what he wrote about Tim Silvia, and some other stuff...he's an arrogant dickhead and a jesus freak, I don't think I'd be very interested in his life.

I dont really like Hughes, but I do give him credit, when he is in the ring he is well spoken, and he shows class. However, I havent read his book, so I cant comment on that. But i can see how he can be arrogant. Even tho he did dominate the 170 devision for a while.


Also, IMO (which i'm always right)

BJ Penn will win.
Jardine will win
Machido will win.


Quebec. April 19th. GSP will dominate. I will guarantee a late knock down in the 1st round by GSP, he will mount and pound on Serra with crushing elbows similar to the 1st Hughes fight.

serra wil last the round, and within 50 seconds of round 2. GSP will deliver a low kick/superman punch which will create a fury of punches from serra to try and counter, all of which miss gsp who is already low on serra working on the takedown,

he gets passed any sort of guard from serra quickly and lands blow after blow. with referee John McCarthy putting a stpo to the fight at 1:07 of round 2.

how do i know? its a gift

very accurate....if only McCarthy was still working.

Whenever someone says that something is a lock in the gambling world, it is usually followed by " I guess I'll take 10-1". I figured that +480 seemed about right since BJ was a lock. Heck it's a bargain if it's a lock.

On paper BJ is a huge favorite to win. I have always been a BJ Penn fan. He is one of the mast talented fighters I have ever seen. I do question his heart though.

When I watched Sean Sherk fight in the past I was impressed. I think he has a ton of heart. He is not an exciting fighter at all. But he worked harder then just about anyone I had ever seen in training. I have the utmost respect for a person that is willing to go the extra mile.

While I believe that BJ is a favorite to win, Sherk is not to be taken lightly at all.

I think that whatever line a person can get on Machida vs Ortiz is a good line. Hopefully Tito's poularity will bring Machida's numbers down a bit. But that is the easiest fight to call imo.

I like Matt Serra a lot. I think he is a great fighter and a coach. Combining his injury with his absence from the octogon is not going to work favorably for him.

When Franklin had his rematch with Anderson Silva, I was leaning toward betting on Franklin. Luckily I didn't. A friend of mine pointed out two things. What has Franklin done that has changed? And it is very hard to come back and win a fight after you have taken a severe beating.

In GSP's case, I don't find this to be true. I guess the handicappers don't either, lol.

I believe that GSP continues to work on his game, and is always adding new things to his arsenal. And I don't personally believe that his loss to Serra is going to scare him.

Matt Serra is a great fighter. GSP is a world class fighter. Big difference.

But the lines sure are making a case for betting Serra.

Nice links JC...

Surprised u didn't add this link in regards to BJ kissing Hughes....

BJ loves Matt

I know some of you like to see how much fighters got paid for the events...

UFC 82 fighters pay
According to the Ohio Athletic Commission executive director Bernie Profato:
Anderson Silva took home $140,000 while Dan Henderson earned $100,000 (Silva also earned an additional $120,000 in bonuses).
Cheick Kongo’s take was $60,000 and Heath Herring’s share was $140,000.
Welterweight Jon Fitch walked away with $60,000 and Chris Wilson $24,000.
Andrei Arlovski’s take was $170,000 and Jake O’Brien’s $22,000.
Josh Koscheck’s check was $20,000 and Dustin Hazlett’s $24,000.
Diego Sanchez got $60,000 and David Bielkheden $16,000.

WTF?????

How does Arlovski pocket $170k?

And how does Koscheck get LESS than Hazlett?

I know some of this stuff has been explained before, but these 2 figures blow my mind. I can maybe see how Arlovski got a ton because maybe his contract states he makes that much etc. But even that makes little sense to me.

The Koscheck thing makes less sense. Not only did he make less than the tomato can he fought, but according to your figures he was paid less than complete no-names Wilson, O'Brien, and the aforementioned Hazlett.

Just wow...

UFC Salaries aren't like boxing where it's on a per fight basis. Koscheck is still on the TUF Contract, which is why he's making so little. Hazelett is not a can, he was coming off a 3 fight winning streak in the UFC. The TUf guys generally get lower paying contracts, but they get a lot of exposure in exchange for that.

Maybe using a word like tomato can was strong, but I consider myself slightly more than the "casual" fan and I have no clue who this guy is. I would figure winning TUF would get you a contract that is better than a guy like Hazelett because people will already know you from TUF and thus that fighter is worth more to Dana in general. Also...isn't there some sort of winner's bonus in these fights? I could be wrong on this, but I always thought the winners got more than the loser unless it was some major upset scenario like Cro-Cop/Gonzaga?

It really is crazy though; Arlovski wasn't even on the main card! Couldn't figure that one out..

There were most likely some other bonuses that were not mentioned in this article (I pulled it off an nbcsports MMA article).

Because the pittbull is a fan favorite, and after his 3 match session with Tim Silvia right when UFC was starting to peak in ratings and popularity he got recognized.


Arlovski is like the E-Dog of poker. Always going to be a favorite and get the invites, but not really up to par with the tag he is given. (not saying edog is a poor player, quite the opposite, but i think there are more deserving players of certain TV invites)

I didn't know there was an MMA thread! I'm a big fan. Not as big as poker but you know...


Is anyone a member of http://mma-tracker.net/ That's where I download all my MMA after the big events. Unfortunately it is a private tracker and they just disabled the invite system for some reason. If it comes back and I have any I'll post here.

Anyone going to Montreal for the GSP fight?

The way each contract works is different. Generally, if you string together a few wins, your salary each fight goes up. Most fighter's contracts get a bonus for winning their fight, but not all, just depends on the particular contract. Josh Koscheck didn't win TUF, Diego Sanchez did. It's the opposite as far as TUF contracts go in that you basically sacrifice getting less money salary wise, but more exposure and probably more sponsorship money too. The TUF contracts I believe are all 3 years long and 3 fights a year.

http://www.t-nation.com/tmagnum/readTopic.do?id=1932983

LOOOL what a redneck clown

wow best cliff notes ever, the dude that wrote this is hilarious...., I knew Hughes was a dick but I didn't know that he was this much of a dickhead....

lol. wow!

so much for my views of his class inside the ring.

he seems like a total douche-bigalow.


Great line tho " they starts throwing their testicles and body parts at each other."

CroCop vs Bob Sapp

http://www.mmalinker.com/index.php?t=t&...ipovic%20Crocop

pretty sure CroCop breaks cracks a few of Sapp's ribs in this fight.


another reason why i strongly believe CroCop should pickup his shiit, and drop from 217 and fight in 205. with his kick power at a fixed weight class, he would be insane.


Also, Bob sapp vs lesner? the winner vs Kimbo? sweeet

lol yeah that's why I told you to check it out.

The Lidell book actually got better. I'm half way through it right now. It's for sure very poorly written and all over the place, but he does have some sick stories like how when he was barely starting out some security guard at a hotel told Dana that UFC is all bullshit and Dana offered him 5k to hang with chuck for 2 minutes in the basement, and then got chuck to come out of his room at 2 am and fight this random dude in the basement of a 5 star hotel like straight out of fight club. He also adds the money he's made for every fight and has little side stories about big UFC guys like the Gracie's, Dana, Fertitta Bro's etc... At the very least it's interesting to see how his pay jumps were, like his first 3 fight contract he said something like "and for that type of money I'd fight anyone" talking about a 24k contract or so to fight 3 guys which would double if he won all 3 fights.

Since I haven't seen a lot of fights, I watch all the UFC Unleashed shows on Spike and I just watched an episode with Brandon Vera dismantle 3 opponents, including Frank Mir, yet I've been reading everything on ESPN and Yahoo about MMA and haven't really seen his name mention too much.

What's his deal? And yes, I could probably visit one of those MMA sites, but they are blocked from work. Any care to shed some light on this one?