Okay, I went back through some old hands when I used to play online and found one I thought was worth discussing since there hasn't been much action on this board lately.

The game is 10-20 NL. Here are the notes I wrote in my journal:

"I played a guy heads up in 20-20. I think I was out of my league against this guy. 'Poker is about making the wrong move at the right time.' (that entry is the lead-in into a hand where I reraised him preflop with J9, flopped the nuts and doubled through his AA) I suspect the guy was better than me, but at the very least, his lack of concern for money made it hard on me and he kept putting me to tough decisions. Check out the starting stacks on this next hand. He had taken me from the above total (4500 after the straight vs AA hand) to the below total without me seeing any two cards he played."

Texas Hold'em $20-$20 NL (real money), #1,567,073,121

Seat 4: Naismith0 ($3,132.75 in chips) [***DEALT Ah 10C***]
Seat 8: evanski ($3,351.25 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
Naismith0 posts blind ($10), evanski posts blind ($20).

PRE-FLOP
Naismith0 calls $10, evanski checks.

FLOP [board cards QH,10D,10S ]
evanski bets $100, Naismith0...?

How are we playing this hand and why? The villain is a good high stakes player. A quick search on 2+2 shows he's a regular poster in the high stakes board. He obviously has the ability to change gears as he started running me over when I beat his aces and started really playing aggressively.

With 2 cards to a straight draw out there, I go ahead and raise to about $375.

raise

Why? What are we hoping to accomplish with this hand? Are we trying to protect our hand and take a smallish pot or do we want to build a big pot and hopefully stack our opponent? What do we raise to?

I would definitely say this is a place that you would smooth call, are you in position? and has the villain been raising preflop with a broadway cards? (I know it was a while ago)

I am in position.

To be honest with you, he mixed up his play so much, he could've raised OOP with KJ the previous round and then smooth called with it this time. He literally was running me over, though, as you can see by my timidness....not even raising with AT on the button. If I had to guess, and remember that I wasn't seeing his cards ever, I would say that he raised with broadway cards more often than not but that wasn't a rule.

I gotcha, I would say that I would smooth call and wait till the turn to see if he has a hand. I do think that waiting to the turn against a really good player might give away your hand.

Alright I just spent about 4 minutes staring at the screen, and I think you should wait, because he has been running you over you can expect him to fire again, and then you can raise him and see where he is at. Hopefully he has a hand and you win a decent pot.

The chance that he actually has a hand is just to low to raise on the flop... You have a good hand and you want to get some money on it. This is heads up after all. If you were playing aggressively I would say raise the flop but since you are playing passively you have to slowplay a good player to get anything out of this.

Not sure if that made any sense but what the heck.

I think that it's important to realize that there are very few hands that he could have that will draw out on you when the turn card falls. There is no flush draw. If he has Qx, he's dead in the water. If he has any pocket pair, he's got 2 outs. If he has the KJ straight draw, you hold the A which kills his hand if it comes, so he's only drawing to 4 outs there. The worst hand for you would be J9 (aside from the obvious QT or QQ) since he's drawing live to 8 outs.

I think that in position, this is probably a pretty clear smooth call. The only reason that I'd want to raise would be if I could make a weak-looking probe raise that he'd want to come over the top of. If I could accomplish that and get him to reraise me, then you could just smooth call the reraise and go back over the top of him on the turn.

At this point I don't think you're concerned that you're beat (and if you are, you're paying it off) so I think the best way to maxmimize the value would be to smooth call and let him keep going on the turn.

I like flat calling here against this guy. If he is running you over then he excpects to keep doing so, so let him hang himself. ERaising here has no value as you do not want to fold our his drawing hands. He has overbet the pot so he is pricing himself out anyways. With position here i am happy to call down any bet and bet if checked to unless a KJQ or 9 hits.

Does anyone have an opinion of his huge overbet?

I think this a good reason to reraise. Especially if you've been folding a lot, just smooth-calling this bet looks strong, whereas if you reraise, he might think you're just playing back at him, and he might raise again with any pocket pair or any 8. Aggressive players tend to think they can out-aggression you, and because they bet a lot of weak hands, they tend to interpret a lot of other people's bets as similar. If you raise, he's just as likely to think "he's finally trying to play back at me" as he is to think "he finally has a hand", and he might very well reraise you. then you can win a large pot.

Also, another good reason to raise is that, if he does have a hand he think is good (like a weaker 10, or maybe even A8, or something of that ilk), you need to start getting money in now with stacks this deep. you want to build the pot now. if you just call, and a scare card rolls off, you might not be able to bet enough for value, or he might not be able to call enough, or he can put you to a tough decision.

say you just call, and the turn is a Q, J, or 9, and he leads with another large bet. then you have a tough decision. if you just call, you may be letting him chase a draw cheaply. if you raise, you might already be behind. what if you get reraised or check-raised on that kind of turn? then what's your play? playing aggressively on the flop here makes the rest of the hand play easier.

you almost certainly have the best hand right now, and you have a player willing to throw money around who will pay off with one-pair type hands (witness him paying you off on the AA hand). take advantage of that.

I guess I should've mentioned this earlier, but he was betting at me on flops I'd hit and I'd passively call a flop bet or a flop and turn bet and then fold when it got too hot. For that reason, I smooth-called.

TURN [board cards QH,10D,10S,8S ]
evanski bets $1,000, Naismith0...?

This is the second straight overbet. We each have a little over 2000 dollars behind, certainly enough to fold if he's getting crazy with air, but that wasn't a great card for our hand. Now what are we doing and why?

i would have probably raised the flop, but I also am ok with the call.

I can't see him having KJ here, as I think he'd raise that up preflop...

if we want to give him credit for "any" straight draw here, it really has to be J9.

AK he raises PF, AJ raises, so I really discount those from his range...cause I think he has to raise those hands up almost every time when you limp in the small blind...i mean, if he has been aggressive already, it would be stupid to not raise up a premium hand like that HU...as that goes against the logic of being overly aggressive..if he is aggressive with rags, he has to be aggressive with strong hands...

as to the turn, that's a quandry... considering there is only...240 in the pot and he bets $1k, is really bizarre. I'd figure he did this with one of two hands...

QQ or J9. He is not a total nut, so air is just not an option here. If it were air, and he trying to push you out I think he might bet the pot, or say $300 or $400, but betting $1k just doesn't make any sense.

And honestly, I don't think he'd play QQ this way...the only way it could possibly be QQ was if he was multi-tabling and accidently checked or something, lol...seriously tho, this hand reaks of J9, cause any sensible player leads on flops with straight draws, and because of his range preflop, I can't see him having a gutshot draw, only a OESD with the J9 (KJ he raises up pf a high % of the time).

granted, all this is being said watching the hand, I dont know what I would do here as it is HU, but seriously this bet is soooo bizarre...there obvioulsy are a few hands we have beat, like KT, JT, or really any Tx, and I could see him playing a T this strongly thinking this:

"I have been really aggressive with this guy and pushing him around, so I bet the flop with my Tx hoping he'll raise the flop with any Q in his hand...oh, he just called, he must have a Q himself, or maybe even a T with a worse kicker, so when the turn comes I'll really overbet and put him to a tough decision. He has been bending and this hand he might break and shovel with a Q, or any other T which I'm almost always ahead of...I'll take the risk of winning this pot as is, but hopefully by overbetting it will look like a steal and I can stack him"

now this is pretty much higher-tier thinking, but htis is "high stakes" hu hold em' so the above situation could very well be in affect. I used to play a ton of HU and i've played with guys that do this to you, and this could be one of those situations.

if that is the case, then I'm all for shoveling and nothing else.

ive pretty much rambled, but i think my last thoughts are what you need to be thinking at the higher levels..yo uneed to interpret your opponent, how he views you, and all that stuff. i really don't think he has air here, it's just a question of whether or not he has the J9 or a weaker T...

tough spot, espeically cause of the past experience you have with this guy...i really couldn't blame you for laying down, or shoveling...i think it's actually a very close decision either way.

edit -- i forgot to include QT a possibility as well and him going along the same lines with the thinking as to why he should overbet. he knows you are bending, and he hopes he coolered you here and you'll break. Great players know when to overbet their "nut" hands, they usually don't do it unless they have a damn good reason too..a.nd i really don't think he does this with air here, especially if he been running you over playing small ball...

- Jordan

as played, i think this is a call. he rarely has 88 or QQ here (no preflop raise). so that leaves Q10, J9, or 108 to worry about. just as often he has a weaker 10 or air or Q7 or something else you crush. against a tight player this might be a fold, but that's not the case here.

as for just calling, if you push now, he will fold a lot of hands you have beat, but he's never folding anything that beats you. call and see the river. as for the river play, if the board pairs you call/push. if a blank comes off, call/push. if a 9, J, or K comes off, then you have a tough decision if he pushes, and you have to go with your gut.

wouldn't you think it would be more likely to be a Ten than a straight draw given the size of the bet on the flop?

no. edit -- well he did overbet, i forgot to make note of that...but still...he doesn't overbet here without some sort of strong hand, especially since he been playing small ball with the OP.

he is a good player. i promise his intial flop bets OOP are almost always the same with trips, top pair, boat, or any str8 draw.

he probably c/r a lot too with str8 draws, gutter or oesd, and a wide variety of hands. HU is very tough against guys like this..and it's almost always cause they bet very similarily with wide ranges of hands...

however, these kinda overbets are so rare, that they are usually never air...

and as i said, his pf range...it's just wrong to put him on QJ AQ AK AJ type hands...i mentioned QQ and i would say that because if OP had been playing really passively (limping then folding to raises from the bb) then QQ could def. check here and hope to flop something to bust him...this is rare, but it is a possibiltiy..esp if OP has been really passive).

edit -- again tho, in my above range...it's a tought spot, but i think with the "bend/brake" philosophy...pushing here is good, and folding isn't horrible...but i think the range he has here you 'normally' are ahead, and really only have to fear J9 or QT.

edit -- and calling is bad. it's a shove/fold situation.

- Jordan

Probably the worst turn card you could see.

Still, the only 3 hands that now beat you that didn't before are T8, J9 and 88. The way you've played the hand, your hand is still very undefined and he thinks he can move out off of it.

If this were a full ring game or even a 6-handed short table, I'd be more apt to fold. Based on how strong your hand is, how weak-looking you've played it and how much he keeps overbetting the pot, I'd go ahead and push here. Your hand is still very strong and you can always boat up if indeed he does have J9.

IMO, his bets just don't make sense for any kind of monster hand. You're playing heads up and your range is HUGE. I think it is unlikely that he's making those massive overbets with a hand like QT or QQ that you're drawing dead to. His most likely hand is Tx I believe, or a whole lot of air. I think based on the way the hand has played out, this is just a ship that you go down with. Reraise all in.

I agree with that thinking. Especially because you just calling with Qx in that position would make a lot of sense. It makes even more sense if he does indeed hold a Ten in his hand, becuase the odds that you're smooth calling in position with a Queen instead of the case Ten are 3-1. A very likely hand for him to have here is JT. He has trips with an excellent kicker and picks up a gutshot straight draw on the turn. I think there are too many ways that you're ahead here. The only hand that I'm super-worried about is J9, but even if he does have that, then you still have outs.

I'd go ahead and push here too because like everyone is saying, you still have some outs and won't be drawing dead or to 1 out unless he has QQ which is highly unlikely here.

Push it and tip your cap if you run into J9 here and then type "boooyaaaah" in the chat window when you river your ace.

No one raised preflop (right?), so villain can't be thinking you have QQ KJ or A10.

It's possible the villian has 10 8.

Obviously, since you've been weak tight for a while (if I interpret what you said) he may be putting you on 10x or the straight draw.

He tested your hand on the flop, hit his card on the turn, and he's coming for your stack.

I think it's pretty obvious in retrospect that the villain has a big hand. At the time, with the speed of online poker, it wasn't as easy to put him on a strong hand because you don't have as much time to think. Looking back, though, he wouldn't put that much money in the middle in relation to the pot size without a good holding.

If I could replay this hand, I would bump up the flop. Like I said, I can't see a solid player bluffing off 100 to win 40. Don't worry, though. This hand had a happy ending:

TURN [board cards QH,10D,10S,8S ]
evanski bets $1,000, Naismith0 bets $3,012.75 and is all-in, evanski bets $2,231.25 and is all-in.

RIVER [board cards QH,10D,10S,8S,9H ]

SHOWDOWN
evanski shows [ 10H,KD ]
Naismith0 shows [ AH,10C ]
evanski wins $218.50, Naismith0 wins $6,264.50.

I think there was a lot of good discussion on this hand and a good percentage pinned the villain on a weaker 10.

Raise, it is a non flush board. If you raise, he's thinking you are 1. making a play at him becasue he's shown agression (like you said), maybe you make him think you have a queen (this works well if he has something like AQ or KQ), maybe he has a weird hand like JT and you are rolling! Why allow him to keep control? What if the turn brings a potential straight card? what if the turn fills his 99 or 88 and you let him get there for 5bb?

EDIT I read this before i read any other posts after the one i quoted