Hate to sound like a fan boy, but I totally agree here. I'd love to see the Bears take this but the Colts should easily win.

(They actually had a prop for the Colts to win by exactly 17? lol)

Game on.

sounds like rain may be a big factor.

so i'd be worried about DNs bets on offensive numbers. Especially on the Marvin "the playoff ghost" Harrison.

Last year there was a few places that had a margin of victorey bet but I think it was a range not an exact number. eg. 1-4,5-7,7-11,12-16,17-22, 22-30,31+. I thibnk I got like 40-1 on Seattle by 31+ and lost

At Bellagio you can bet an exact number on both sides, all at different odds obviously.

If the colts run defense plays like it has the past 3 games the Bears don't have a chance. It used to seem like that was a major weak point, but not this postseason.
I don't think Grossman is up for winning the game in the air.

Oh daniel. You should stick to poker. The Bears will NOT give up that many points. You also forgot about a guy named.. Devlin Hestlear? Devin Hester? Is that his name? Anyway, the colts special teams sucks. Hester will return at least one for a td.

Everybody counted the bears out against the saints and look what happened. I don't think we need to tell DN about underestimating your opponent.

The Bears will win, 27-23. Manning throws 3 picks, Indy turns the ball over 4 times, Hester returns at least one for a TD, Grossman throws 1 pick, Bears turn the ball over exactly once. Count it.

Hey Daniel, dont know if you remember but I bet you last year in vegas on the action points at weekend at Daniels, and I would be willing again to give you the colts vs. the bears. Im taking the Bears of course like last year when I whooped you with the Steeler . Anyways maybe we can work out a little bet and see if I can go 2-0?


Paul

I don't agree at all. About any of that. 1st of all the bears were favorites over the Saints, and well they should have been. Special teams don't mean a whole lot in my opinion and the colts will probably do the squid-kick thing to not let Hester set up for TD returns. Granted, Manning hasn't been playing well but they beat their arch-rivals the Patriots, who are both better than the Bears and beat the Bears this season. I think the Chicago defense with force a turnover, maybe 2, but the bears just won't be able to put enough together offensively to win. Grossman is going to have to play well and he won't.

Well you should take into consideration that the Patriots were through a war the week before and their whole defence was sick and injured, so that will make your offence look a whole lot better. They are coming up against the best defence in the league so we will see how they do, I really believe that Grossman is the X factor, if he can just play solid (not great) and their running game and special teams stay on track then I think the Bears will def beat the spread if not win outright.

You are wrong, I am right, nani nani boo boo! You must live in Chicago or something, you are a dreamer. The hype is making people believe this will be a good game, but we are looking at a blowout. If Chicago was in the AFC WEST they'd be a 9-7 team, missing the post season all together. Manning will rip that D apart, boo ya!

I do agree that the bears are the best defense in the league (I think they have more raw talent and are better with turnovers than the Ravens). I just feel like the Bears are going to want to rely on a run game and not put a lot of pressure on grossman. I just don't think they'll be able to. Even against such an amazing defense the Colts have one of the best offenses in the NFL and I think they'll put atleast 24 points on the board. I feel like the bears defense will play great no matter what but its the Bears offense that needs to come through.

One thing to be careful about though. Never put too much faith in Manning in the postseason. I've learned that. He really has to prove it today.

That is a bunch of made up, hyped up, hogwash. It really is ridiculous and there are good examples in the poker world too. For example, Ivey has been to, like 5 final tables but never won. After that people were saying, "Ivey just can't win the big one, he screws up in the end and doesn't finish well." It's bull! It's just luck with poker, but with the post season and football, Manning doesn't cry for his Mommy. He is no choker.

Did you see his interview after losing to the steelers last year? He wined and bitched about not having good protection. And I think he WAS crying.

See, the problem with Squib kicks is that they still give the bears great field position.



Wow, you must make a living reading people.
Like the saints were supposed to blow out the Bears
Yeah, just like Drew Brees and Reggie Bush did.

The saints had the best offense in the league, and they were pitiful. The Bears are going to win.

Oh my word, he didn't whine or bitch at all. Fact is, he didn't have good protection in that game, but he didn't whine. Manning is going to crush them today, total domination:

7 TD Passes, 57-58 passing, 612 yards throwing, 161 yards rushing, plus he will kick three FG's when they are up by 30, "just for fun."

As far as poker goes there is a lot more luck in it. I think Ivey has 10 times the talent of Jamie Gold and he doesn't blow it in the end. Nothing ever works out for him and he loses all of the big all-ins.

It's a lot different with Manning though. His career passing percentage is something like 63%, but his postseason % is something like 50-55%. His TD to INT ratio is also much worse.

Who said the Saints were supposed to beat the Bears??? The Bears were FAVORED!!! and I bet them too, lol. The Saints are NOT the Colts, silly comparison.

Ah, but there is zero statistical evidence as to how Manning plays in the Super Bowl. I say, he dominates in a big, big, big, big, big, big, big, BIG way.

LOL Does that mean Grossman will go 1-36, with -254 passing yds, gets sacked 19 times, and accidently runs into his own endzone twice?

No, he gets hit in the 2nd Quarter by Dwight Freeney and doesn't return. In the first quarter, though, he does through 2 picks!

Cany use this analogy for obvious reasons. Poker and sports are different in that regard, you can play awesome in poker and get cold decked you have no chance you will lose, whereas in sports there is'nt as much luck in general. Example Chris Moneymaker won the main event, you dont see my beloved lions winning the superbowl or making the playoffs do you?

Not exactly, because the media may put it on the shoulder of the QB when it wasn't his fault in the least. Say I'm a QB and play three straight Super Bowls. Have a decent game all three times, but the D sucks, my line doesn't protect me, the RB has a bad game, and my WR's drop a ton of balls. As QB I didn't screw up, but the media will focus on the fact that I, "Never won the big one."

Bottom line is that Manning does'nt play as well in the playoffs as he does in the regualar season, Its not that I think he's gonna choke, I just don't think he is gonna play this amazing game. I think the Bears D is in way better shape then the Pats, and I think they will force some turnovers, and Im not even saying that the Bears will win but I like them at +7. I say it again don't be suprised if the colts offence does'nt look that good, they were playing against a crippled pats D and only looked good in the 2nd half when the pats were exhausted do to injuries th flu and old age!!!! Bottom line is that Manning is not a Brady, and Harrison's nujmbers are bad in the playoffs in general especially this playoffs!!

Ah hem:

Manning to Harrison 4 times (TD)
Manning to Wayne 3 times (TD)

Also, three FG's from Manning, 52, 44, and 37. Vinateri will hold with a cigarette and a beer in his left hand as the team is up by 30.

I agree it is the whole team, and it is not all his fault. But look at how Manning looked in the first half of the pats game, I bet the colts in that game and I was cursing because he was rattled and playing poorly and when your star is not showing composure the rest of your team suffers and lose confidence. He looked defeated on the bench, but played better in the second half. Overall I think other years he's played bad, this year no he has'nt. I think defences win championships so I believe Manning will play good but the Bears D will offset that and it will boil down to Rexy and special teams IMO. But in sports its true that some people just don't deal with the pressure as well as others, and if Manning does'nt play lights out they dont win by 7 if win at all

Do you remember last year when you were all about the Seahawks??? And we made a bet on the action points and I said the steelers had a lot of heart (in vegas I took them at I think 10$ action points)???? its not just the sexy offences that win in the superbowl, in general when the nerves show up the offence plays worse for susceptible players but Defence uses that adrenalin and play better IMO.......

How DARE you argue with me??? I thought I already made it very clear, I am RIGHT and YOU are WRONG? Those are the FACTS, the unarguable FACTS!!!!

heheheheh

not that huge a football fan, but this was entertaining.

Daniel, just curious but how are all three of the games you mentioned 'goofy?' I really enjoyed the triple draw chapter you wrote for SS2. Have you changed your mind since the book came out?

wow... well said, it only took 1 play.

Congradulation DN on winning the big bet, didn't think it was a good one, but nice job. And How refreshing is Tony Dungy

Congrats Daniel. You made about $15,000 profit.

Therrrrrrrre ya go.

Turned out to be a very good game actually (edit: I should say entertaining, lots of funny stumbling moments)..sans the 4th 1/4. What the Heck was Chicago doing in those last 2 minutes???

Can you say "HAIL MARY BABY!!!!" ?. Really weird that they didnt try to score a big one.

oh well,,,grats on the bets Daniel, and anyone else who made some mobney.

My buddy had a cash game going on during his superbowl party and while doing well in the game I also won 3 of my props...

- Hester will return one for a score
- Coin Toss: heads
- Prince's opener in the montage would be Let's Go Crazy

Weather sucked here in Miami....good game though. I was happy to see Peyton get the ring. Now nobody can put him in Marinos "Never won the Big One" group anymore. God Bless Tony Dungy also, with all he has gone through the last few years, he deserved it.

That was actually pretty close, except for the Bears winning part. Well done.

hahahaha.. Daniel, you are a funny funny man