CoranMoran
Monday, January 29th, 2007, 11:34 AM
No way you can profitably bet this 3rd pair for value into 2 opponents.
In my opinion, it's not close.
Since there is no chance you will ever get value out of both of them, you are risking 1 bet to win 1 bet.
So it has to work over 50% of the time.
I think it happens much less than that.
What worse hands can we put Villains on that we hope to gain value from?
A

2

?
77 ?
These just aren't happening.
CO could have been chasing a draw.
Or he could have a monster.
But he just can't call you on the river with anything that you beat since Button acts behind him.
And the only thing you can hope for from Button is that is makes a huge crying call with AK or some other miss.
But since you have been showing strength into 2 opponents the whole way, he must know he would be no good.
Any 2-suited flop with JT is going to generate a lot of draws.
I am more than willing to allow these missed draws to bluff at this river.
I believe this is the only way to profitably gain an extra bet.
Mike, I know you like to try to value bet your marginal hands on the river.
And the fact that you posted this gives me the impression that you actually obtained value from a bet.
But this seems like a very bad time for the try.
I say this is a clear CC.
--CM