iggymcfly
Sunday, January 21st, 2007, 8:03 PM
QUOTE (TwoFourOffsuit @ Sunday, January 21st, 2007, 12:20 AM)

Fold. You'll likely move up a spot without doing anything. (1) $250 may be nothing to iggy but it may mean more to you. And so what if one of them doubles up? Compare that to jumping in, finding out one of them holds an overpair or AK and pairs one of them on the board while the board misses you? And then you gain nothing other than the 5th place money you already had locked up. However, doing nothing stands a good chance of gaining you something. Call that a bad EV decision all you want. I'd fold and let them nuke each other.
(2) However, even without that, think about what kind of a hand YOU would push on. Probably a murder hand like pocket kings. That's probably along the lines of what the all-in raiser is holding. Overcards that pair with the board or any pocket overpairs have you cooked unless you get another jack, and even then, if they're holding a pocket overpair and the board gives THEM a set, they still pwn you. Can't blame you for hating pocket jacks. (3) Fold even if there's a chance the guy after you will fold and give big spender the pot.
Quoted the whole post so I can respond to the bolded sections separately.
(1) First off, the absolute dollar amounts mean nothing here. Multiply them all by 10 and I give the same advice. The point is that the difference between 3rd and 4th
relative to the difference between 2nd and 3rd is negligible. As such, you need to be aggressive at this stage of the tournament. I wasn't saying "oh, I'm a baller and I only care about first", I was pointing out that 2nd place is the key spot you should be worried about given the payout structure.
(2) As for the second part, no, not even close. The all-in player here has
three big blinds left.
Three. He's in a desperate situation here, and should be pushing a very wide range of hands. I agree that there are some weak-tight donks out there that will make ridiculous folds, but a good player will be pushing a range of something like 22+, A7+, KJ+. Possibly much looser if he thinks that UTG is a good thinking player as well. UTG+1 is going to
have to go all-in one of the next three hands regardless, so waiting for pocket kings would be suicide. Also, even if we do lose to the all-in player, we can still make money on the hand as long as we beat the original raiser in the sidepot.
(3) This last quote just annoys me because it's so stupid. There's so many things wrong with it that I don't know where to begin. First off, if we fold, it's pretty much impossible that the original raiser will fold for 600 chips more. So we can't be "giving big spender the pot". Also, "big spender"? Are you kidding me? The guy's got 3 big blinds left, and you're acting like it's a wild, reckless move to push all-in. It's his
only move with any kind of reasonable hand.
The overall point is that when you get into a tournament with a terrible fast structure like this, making "safe folds" is not going to win you money. Making aggressive moves at the pot is. I played a live $100 tournament like this a few months ago because someone I knew who didn't play poker regularly wanted me to go with him. You know what happened? At the final table, I started going all-in with about half of my hands, while people with 2000 chips folded for 2/3 of their stack. I won a little under half of my confrontations and people couldn't believe how "lucky" I got as I cruised to a 4:1 chip lead when it finally got heads-up. If you're afraid of a 50/50 confrontation, you'll never be a good tournament poker player.