Bodog 20/40 LHE (6-handed)

Cobalt is BB w/ J 5 . SB is a frequent donkbettor into scary boards. He's done this to me a couple of times and I've folded to it. He's semi-LAG but not an idiot and likely views me as solid but on the "weak-tighter" side.

Pre-flop:
4 folds, SB raises, Cobalt calls

Flop (4 SB): J 4 3 (2 players)
SB bets, Cobalt calls

Turn (3 BB): Q (2 players)
SB checks, Cobalt bets, SB calls

River (5 BB): K (2 players)
SB bets, Cobalt raises

So, you think you fold a weak spade?

waiting for the turn is so dumperific.

I can't figure out what this means.

why not take the lead on the flop?

I think the most interesting part of this hand is the river.

Raising can only be done as a complete bluff.
Because obviously we won't be getting called with any worse hands.
And if I knew that Villain was ahead of us for sure, I may consider throwing in this bluff-raise.
Our hand would have no showdown value in that case, and I would be tempted to try to steal it.
Because with our weak-tight image, it would be difficult for him to bet-call with a weak Flush.

But the fact that Villain is a known bluffer changes my decision.
There is a decent chance that we are actually ahead here.
And since our hand does have some showdown value, risking an extra bet to steal may not even be necessary.

Conclusion:
- We might be ahead on the river, based on our read.
- If we are behind, Villain might call a river raise with a weak Flush anyways.

This combination makes me lean toward just calling down the river.


--CM

Possible.


I think he's saying he wants me to raise the flop...which is fairly reasonable.


Didn't feel it was necessary, but I'm not opposed to it.


Correct. If we had second pair, I'd be inclined to agree with you. The problem is that there are actually a lot of non-flush hands that he could be "bluffing" with that have us beat. A pair of kings, queens (granted somewhat unlikely), a better jack (also somewhat unlikely), or some strange two pair come to mind. To be honest, I actually put him on a king or air here.

If Villain has a K, his best play would be to check-call, right?

--cm

Hm. Most likely. Depends on what he thinks I've got though.

If villian's betting a king here, he's doing it for value. No way he's expecting you to fold a spade. About the only bluff I could see beating you here is maybe a jack, but that doesn't seem very consistent with the flop and turn play.

Honestly, I think villian's got one of two things here. The flush is most likely and if he has that he's almost certainly not folding. If you have a read that he's an especially solid player, maybe you can get him to fold a low spade or a king, but against a typical Bodog LAG, it's not happening. The other slight possibility is that he has a weak pair (maybe 55?) or ace high and is trying to bluff you off of a queen or a jack. If you think there's a 15% chance or better of him having one of these hands your best play is to call. I see virtually no value to a raise here. If you raised and he folded, it's almost certainly because your hand was good all along.

Bleh...and I was so proud of myself. But you guys are probably right. The more I examine the board, the more apt I am to think I probably had the best hand and should've just called. Now if I have a pair of 4s or 3s, does a raise have some value?