Bodog 20/40 LHE (6-handed)

Cobalt is Button w/ Q J . UTG is primarily a calling station, but he gets aggro w/ a hand, and I have seen him make some random stupid bets/bluffs. SB is a lagtard and probably not happy that I've been getting the best of him.

Pre-flop:
UTG calls, 2 folds, Cobalt calls, SB calls, BB checks

Flop (4 SB): T 7 9 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Cobalt bets, SB raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, Cobalt calls

Turn (5 BB): 5 (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Cobalt calls

River (8 BB): 3 (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Cobalt calls

Final Pot: 11 BB


Now sometimes I'll raise here on the button and sometimes I'll fold based on table composition (what I think of the UTG limper). Here I felt it best to play in a smaller pot in position.

Yeah, I usually raise it up there.
Playing a 4-way pot with Q high is often tough.

Flop and Turn look dandy to me.
But I'm trying to find the confidence to raise the river.

We have the 3rd nut Flush.
UTG doesn't have the nuts since he only called the river.
SB has a hand, but if has the A , it's purely a coincidence.
I think we are very likely ahead.

But a smart opponent would fold anything worse to our river raise though, so maybe there isn't much value there.

Thoughts?

--CM

I don't like a river raise. Give me the king, and I do, as we get called twice as often by worse hands.

I think...

Smart players don't open limp UTG either right? The other plus is that the SB can be tilting so he may very likely not have the A or K of spades. However, is he tilting enough to bet a hand on the river into 2 opponents w/o a flush? I don't think so (although it is close), so I'm leaning towards calling here.

Given the read I think this is a raise.

Sb is a lagtard. His check raise on the flop screams of protecting with top two, top pair or a a set. Easy raise especially if ur displined to fold to a three-bet.

Bleh. I like that against one opponent, not two. I'll be content to show it down for one bet.
If we're behind, we're getting raised and folding anyways, thus losing another bet, and if we're ahead, we're probably not getting called often enough to make it worth our while.

I'd raise this on the button unless you think that UTG will open-limp with an ace. The reason to play small pots with a calling station is the fear that they'll go to showdown unimproved but most of the hands he's limping with don't have showdown value unless they pair up. Here, I think you want to play a bigger pot in position and avoid giving the blinds a free look.

River's a very, very close decision. The king would be a definite raise and the jack would be a definite call. I think the fact that SB merely completed for half of a small bet opens his range pretty wide however. I also think an ace is quite unlikely based on combinations of hands preflop and on the flop. We're almost guaranteed to get in one bet if we're ahead (UTG's a calling station and will put it in another bet if he doesn't have to overcall).

He's probably not betting a six of spades or lower, but against an 8, J, or bluff, we're probably getting one bet somewhere and even getting two is a strong possibility. The other question is if UTG would overcall with the king here. If he's likely to do that, that would also lean toward a call. Honestly, I think this decision is so close that it doesn't matter whatsoever what you do here. I guess for metagame, raising is probably better since if they see that you'll raise the queen in a three-way pot, they'll be more likely to call your river raises in the future.

Why wouldnt you 3bet the flop?

You want to be able to take a free card on the turn?

Mid-limit Bodog players are pretty aggro. I've quit making free card raises on flush draw boards there, because you get reraised about 90% of the time. With 6 nut outs, our equity isn't high enough to want to put in 4 bets on the flop, so I think just calling the flop raise is pretty standard.

i like raise fold on the button simply because most people dont' have the balls to re-raise without the As in this position, unless sb is a maniac, which he does not seem like

That was actually a key thought going through my mind. I did think that UTG could be calling in that spot with the Ks (and wouldn't fold).

As it turned out, SB had 9s2c (?) and UTG had the flop monster Ks7h.

How could you not call 2 cold on the flop with 2nd pair and the 2nd nut backdoor flush draw?